I/VI. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/fighting-in-eastern-ukraine-dies-down-but-for-how-long/517194.html
Fighting in Eastern Ukraine Dies Down, But For How Long? ReutersMar. 10 2015 09:00 Last edited 09:00 Baz Ratner / Reuters Fighters with separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic army ride atop of a moving armoured personnel carrier in the village of Nikishine, south east of Debaltseve. Uneasy calm and domesticity have settled over rebel positions in the ruins of front-line towns in east Ukraine as steps are taken to observe a fragile cease-fire that each side expects the other to violate with a fresh offensive. Near the charred shell of a tank, destroyed in a recent battle in the village of Molochnoye, a woman clad in camouflage fatigues cooked beetroot soup, while rebel fighters fashioned an empty ammunition box into a sidecar for an old Soviet motorbike. Fighting, which virtually razed the nearby towns of Debaltseve and Vuhlehirsk, has died down with a three-week-old cease-fire broadly holding. But pro-Russian separatists are on guard in case violence flares again. Local rebel commander Vyacheslav, nicknamed Kot (Cat), said he had no desire to launch further attacks, but wished to defend his land. "I don't need to kill you at all," he said, talking in Ukrainian as if addressing government troops directly. "If you think that I want to take a look at your houses, that's not the deal. I just need my house to be safe and my wife to be at home and to cook food for me," he said, speaking outside the local rebel headquarters, which had a collapsed roof and two armored personnel carriers parked in the backyard. Under the terms of the peace deal agreed on Feb. 12, pro-Moscow rebels and Ukrainian government forces were supposed to pull heavy artillery back from front lines to end a conflict that has killed nearly 6,000 people since last April. Both sides have shown convoys of heavy arms being withdrawn, but each accuses the other of leaving some large weapons near front-line positions. Opposing Trenches Not Far Away >From hilltop outposts near Molochnoye, rebels observed Ukrainian positions around Novoluhanske, a government-controlled town. Rebel trenches on one of the hills seen by Reuters were manned by three fighters. They gave orders to keep heads low as if prepared for enemy attack, but only one of them had his helmet on. Another fighter peered through his binoculars at sandbags on the Ukrainian side of the front about 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) away. Cases of at least five used anti-tank guided missiles lay on the ground nearby. More rebels could be seen on the next hill. "Yesterday a diversionary group came and checked us out," a gunman, who gave his name as Andrei, said as he squatted on the grass near a trench. "We held them back with suppressive fire from light rifles. We mainly use Pokemon," he said, using a nickname for PKM, or Kalashnikov machine guns. A few bangs and shots could be heard in the area over the weekend, but it was not clear which side was firing or at what target. In Molochnoye, a further 2 kilometers from the front line, a T-64 tank was parked near an old one-storey house. A gas mask covered the end of the barrel and a camouflage blanket was draped over its turret. Within 24 hours the tank did not change position. "Don't take pictures of the tank. It's all covered. We don't use it," a rebel said, coming out of the house. "Its name is Victoria, after my wife." II/VI. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/11/russia-struggling-ukraine-military-operations-report Scale of Russian military intervention in Ukraine revealed Moscow's involvement in conflict has been so intense and on such a scale that strain on its military is starting to show, says report A destroyed tank abandoned near Debaltseve, Ukraine A destroyed tank abandoned near Debaltseve. Vladimir Putin's government denies any direct involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Photograph: Vadim Ghirda/AP Julian Borger Diplomatic editor Wednesday 11 March 2015 09.48 GMT Last modified on Wednesday 11 March 2015 11.00 GMT Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share via Email Share on LinkedIn Share on Google+ Shares 213 Large-scale intervention in eastern Ukraine by regular Russian troops began last August, reaching a peak of 10,000 in December, and Moscow has been struggling to maintain operations on such a scale and intensity, according to a report. The report, by the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), claims small teams of reconnaissance and Spetsnaz special operations units crossed the border earlier, in mid-July after Ukrainian government forces had won a series of battles and had pushed pro-Moscow separatists out of territory they had previously occupied. The Rusi report also confirms the findings of findings of a February investigation, based on analysis of satellite imagery by the Bellingcat group of investigative journalists, that Russian artillery shelled Ukrainian positions from inside Russian territory. Russia shelled Ukrainians from within its own territory, says study Read more Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has admitted planning the invasion and annexation of Crimea last March, but his government continues to deny any direct involvement in the gruelling conflict in eastern Ukraine. However, the Rusi report says that a total of 42,000 Russian troops from 117 combat and combat-support units have been involved, either being rotated in and out of the front lines in Ukraine or pouring artillery fire from inside Russia. "The first operational successes of Ukrainian forces in late June and early July 2014 first prompted Russian artillery fire from within Russian territory, targeted against advancing Ukrainian troops on their own soil, from mid-July onwards," the report's author, Igor Sutyagin, writes. "Direct intervention by Russian troops in combat roles then followed in the middle of August, when the prospect of rebel defeat had become realistic. The presence of large numbers of Russian troops on Ukrainian sovereign territory has, more or less, since become a permanent feature of the conflict." The report says that the Russian troops serve as the most capable strike force against the Ukrainian army, adding that "rebel formations have in essence been used as cannon fodder". Aid convoy stops short of border as Russian military vehicles enter Ukraine Read more Sutyagin said the effort of sustaining that level of involvement was beginning to put strains on the capacity of the Russian military. "Indeed, it is obvious that there are insufficient resources - military and financial - under the Kremlin's command to sustain military operations at the current level for over a year: the military capabilities required to carry out the operation are already reaching their limits," the report says. There have been increasing reports of conscripts having been pressganged or tricked into taking part in a covert war in Ukraine, and the Rusi report says enforcer units have been deployed to stop them fleeing the frontlines. It says these "barrier squads", or anti-retreat troops, are drawn from the interior ministry's Dzerzhinskiy division. Sutyagin, a Russian military researcher and arms control expert, spent 11 years in prison, mostly in a penal colony in Russia's Arctic north, after having been convicted of espionage charges, which he has denied. Igor Sutyagin is odd man out in spy swap deal Read more He was hired to write reports for a British company and says his reports were compiled from information in the public domain. Moscow freed him as part of a spy-swap in 2010, but Sutyagin said he was included as a face-saving ploy by Russian intelligence. He has lived in Britain since his release. III/VI. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/more-russian-tanks-equipment-cross-ukraine-border-u-s-official/517267.html Russia Still Sending Tanks to Ukraine, U.S. Complains ReutersMar. 10 2015 21:39 Last edited 08:41 Ints Kalnins / Reuters The U.S. has boosted its military presence in the Baltics in a bid to counter "Russian aggression." Russian tanks and heavy military equipment have crossed the Ukrainian border in the last few days in breach of a European-brokered cease-fire agreed on Feb. 12, a senior U.S. State Department official said on Tuesday. The comments by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Victoria Nuland, follow accusations by Ukraine and Western governments that Russia continues to send troops and weapons to support separatists in eastern Ukraine despite the Minsk cease-fire deal, a charge the Kremlin has denied. Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula annexed by Russia a year ago, was "suffering a reign of terror," Nuland told a congressional hearing on Ukraine, adding that the White House was still considering whether to arm Ukraine's military. The last few days have seen new transfers of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, heavy artillery and rocket equipment over the border to the separatists, Nuland told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. She said "hundreds and hundreds" of Russian troops had been killed during the conflict in eastern Ukraine. "In the coming days, days not weeks, we need to see a complete cease-fire," Nuland said. "Pressure is going to have to increase if Minsk is not implemented." She said there was a "spirited" debate within the administration on whether to send arms to Ukraine. Brian McKeon, the U.S. principal deputy under secretary of defense, told lawmakers 11 Russian battalion tactical teams were in Russia's Rostov region across the Ukrainian border. The United States pledged $118 million in non-lethal assistance to Ukraine but has delivered only about half of that, he said. "It's a case of finding it in the stocks of the United States military, and in the case of some equipment we're purchasing it off the production line." The Senate and House of Representatives unanimously passed legislation in December that authorized sending arms to Kiev. Obama signed the measure into law but it gave him leeway over whether or when to send the arms. In a letter to U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday, senators Bob Corker, a Republican from Tennessee and Robert Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey, called on Obama to immediately submit a report to Congress on plans for providing arms to Ukraine. The lawmakers said the report, required under the Ukraine Freedom Support Act, had been due on Feb. 15. It was unclear when the report would be submitted. IV/VI. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/11/us/politics/obama-said-to-resist-growing-pressure-from-all-sides-to-arm-ukraine.html?_r=0 Obama Said to Resist Growing Pressure From All Sides to Arm Ukraine By PETER BAKERMARCH 10, 2015 Photo A pro-Russian rebel left a trench on the front lines near Ukrainian troops last week. A cease-fire began Feb. 15, but there have been 1,000 violations reported so far. Credit Andrew Burton/Getty Images Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main storyShare This Page Continue reading the main story WASHINGTON -- As American intelligence agencies have detected new Russian tanks and artillery crossing the border into Ukraine in recent days, President Obama is coming under increasing pressure from both parties and more officials inside his own government to send arms to the country. But he remains unconvinced that they would help. Democrats joined Republicans on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday in unanimously pressing the administration to send weapons to Kiev. Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, publicly urged Mr. Obama to consider such a move last week, joining Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter and James R. Clapper Jr., the director of national intelligence. Continue reading the main story RELATED COVERAGE Fighting in Ukraine Has Killed More Than 840 Since Mid-January, U.N. SaysMARCH 2, 2015 Ukrainian forces on Thursday prepared to pull back from the area around Debaltseve, which is held by separatist fighters. Ukraine to Pull Back Artillery From Edge of Separatist ZoneFEB. 26, 2015 Desperation and Destruction in Contested Ukraine CityFEB. 8, 2015 But the president has signaled privately that despite all the pressure, he remains reluctant to send arms. In part, he has told aides and visitors that arming the Ukrainians would encourage the notion that they could actually defeat the far more powerful Russians, and so it would potentially draw a more forceful response from Moscow. He also wants to give a shaky cease-fire a chance to take hold, despite a reported 1,000 violations so far, and seems determined to stay aligned with European allies that oppose arms for Ukraine. Continue reading the main story GRAPHIC Russia's Endgame in Ukraine How Russia aims to achieve its goal of keeping Ukraine isolated from the West. OPEN GRAPHIC "If you're playing on the military terrain in Ukraine, you're playing to Russia's strength, because Russia is right next door," Antony J. Blinken, the deputy secretary of state, told an audience in Berlin last week. "It has a huge amount of military equipment and military force right on the border. Anything we did as countries in terms of military support for Ukraine is likely to be matched and then doubled and tripled and quadrupled by Russia." That argument seems to most closely channel the president's, according to people familiar with the internal debate. Mr. Obama continues to pose questions indicating his doubts. "O.K., what happens if we send in equipment -- do we have to send in trainers?" said one person paraphrasing the discussion on the condition of anonymity. "What if it ends up in the hands of thugs? What if Putin escalates?" But while Mr. Obama's national security adviser, Susan E. Rice, shares his skepticism, the president finds himself increasingly flanked inside and outside his government by others urging him to do more to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. Last week General Dempsey told lawmakers that "I think we should absolutely consider providing lethal aid." Madeleine K. Albright, a secretary of state under President Bill Clinton; Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter; and Michael A. McFaul, who was Mr. Obama's ambassador to Moscow, have all said the same. Representative Eliot L. Engel of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said last week that he was so "disappointed" in the administration for not using tools in past legislation authorizing more sanctions against Russia and arms for Ukraine that he was introducing a new bill to "dial up the pressure on Vladimir Putin." Continue reading the main story A hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday made clear that the disappointment was becoming widespread and bipartisan. "There's no question there's strong consensus on this committee, and in the United States Senate, that the United States needs to do more to help the Ukrainians defend themselves," said Senator Benjamin L. Cardin, a Maryland Democrat. The Obama administration has committed to sending Ukraine $118 million in nonlethal aid, like night-vision goggles and counter-mortar radar, but so far only about half has been delivered, officials told the panel. Brian P. McKeon, the principal deputy under secretary of defense, agreed that in some cases the aid has been "unacceptably slow" and said the administration was working to speed it up. An announcement of more deliveries of that equipment may be made as early as Wednesday, and the administration also plans another $120 million of similar aid. In resisting the pressure from advisers and fellow Democrats, Mr. Obama is adhering closely to European allies like Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who has strongly opposed sending arms to Ukraine. A senior administration official confirmed Tuesday an Associated Press report that Mr. Obama told Ms. Merkel when she visited Washington last month that he would hold off sending weaponry during negotiations for a cease-fire. After that meeting, European, Russian and Ukrainian leaders meeting in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, crafted a cease-fire. "We are all committed to making sure that we uphold the basic principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that have been threatened by Russian aggression," Mr. Obama said before a meeting on Monday with Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council. "We've been able to maintain strong unity with respect to sanctions." The senior administration official, who did not want to be identified describing Mr. Obama's discussions with a foreign leader, said the president's commitment to Ms. Merkel was temporary. "Going forward, we'll have to make judgments based in part of our assessment of compliance with Minsk," the official said. Other officials said no decision was likely anytime soon. Even as the Minsk accord went into effect, pro-Russian separatists captured the city of Debaltseve. But in recent days, violence has fallen sharply, some heavy weapons have been withdrawn and a cautious optimism has emerged in Kiev and European capitals. Still, American officials said the results of the cease-fire remain mixed. While Russia has denied arming and directing the separatists in eastern Ukraine, a top State Department official told the Senate panel on Tuesday that more military equipment has been sent across the border. "Just in the last few days, we can confirm new transfers of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, heavy artillery and rocket equipment over the border to the separatists in eastern Ukraine," Victoria Nuland, an assistant secretary of state, told the panel. Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main storyContinue reading the main story "So in the coming days, not weeks," she added, "here's what we need to see: a complete cease-fire in all parts of eastern Ukraine; full, unfettered access to the whole conflict zone; a pullback of all heavy weapons; and an end to uninspected convoys of cargo over the Ukrainian borders." Ms. Nuland said there was a "spirited debate" going on inside the administration over whether to send arms to Ukraine and that no decision has been made yet. But senators said delaying a decision was the same thing as deciding against sending arms. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat of New Hampshire, said that it was "taking a very long time" to decide. Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, the ranking Democrat on the committee, said that by the time Mr. Obama decides "then it will be too late." Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, was more sympathetic to the administration, admitting that it might not work but said "that's a chance worth taking." Mr. McKeon said the administration was wrestling with the consequences of sending weapons to Ukraine. "Does this raise the ante?" he asked. "And then what would Ukraine feel that the United States owes them in terms of additional assistance? So it's trying to see down the field to the second, third and fourth move on this chessboard. That's part of the conversation." V/VI. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-could-ease-gas-terms-if-kiev-pays-separatist-easts-bills/517276.html Russia Could Ease Gas Terms If Kiev Pays Separatist East's Bills ReutersMar. 11 2015 13:23 Last edited 13:23 Ukrtransgas One of Ukraine's Ukrtransgas facilities, part of the network that could be receiving cheap Russian gas via the EU. Russia may ease the terms of its gas supplies to Ukraine but Kiev will have to pay for the gas Moscow is supplying to rebel-held areas of east Ukraine, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. A supply deal for the winter expires on March 31, along with a discount of $100 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas and a suspension of a take-or-pay requirement. Novak said in an interview that Russia was open to prolonging those concessions even without a new deal, which has been referred to as a "summer package," for the period after March 31. "A discount is possible under the contract as well. No separate (summer) packages are needed if Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement. Take-or-pay (suspension)... is also possible, it depends on the talks between companies," Novak said. Russia and Ukraine have clashed over pricing and unpaid gas bills, with the Russians halting supply three times over the past decade, including a stoppage for much of the second half of 2014. If Moscow and Kiev fail to settle their most recent dispute, supplies to the European Union could potentially be disrupted as gas for EU countries is piped across Ukraine, although there was no such impact during last year's stoppage. A crisis was averted on Friday, when Gazprom received $15 million from Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz for gas supplies to last until March 15. Gazprom's gas shipments to Ukraine are governed by a 2009 contract that runs until 2019, but within that some terms can be adjusted. Novak said that if the gas price is $330 or more per 1,000 cubic meters in the second quarter, then the maximum discount for Kiev could be $100. If the price is lower, the discount would be not more than 30 percent of the price. The price for the second quarter could be in the range of $350-$360 with no discount, he said. That compares to $329 for the current quarter. Novak said that gas for rebel-held east Ukraine is supplied at the same price that Naftogaz pays for supplies to the rest of Ukraine. The minister said Kiev would have to settle its bills for supplies to the east. "We are supplying (east Ukraine) under the (2009) contract. Gazprom doesn't ship for free. Bills, invoices are being prepared," Novak said. "There is no clarity yet on how debts for supplies to east Ukraine will be settled. ...Maybe via an arbitration court, maybe via negotiations." On gas exports further afield, Novak said Russia would ship as much gas to Europe in 2015 as it did last year. In 2014, Gazprom exported 147 billion cubic meters to Europe and Turkey, where it generates more than half of its revenues. Novak said volumes last year were unusually low because of mild weather, and should be higher in 2015. Pipelines Russia has a long-term goal of bypassing Ukraine as a transit country. It ships around 40 percent of its gas to Europe via Ukraine, while the rest goes via Belarus, Moldova, the Nord Stream subsea pipeline to Germany and the Blue Stream subsea pipeline to Turkey. In December last year it canceled plans to build the South Stream gas pipeline under the Black Sea to Bulgaria and onwards into southeast Europe. It is now planning an alternative export route, unofficially called Turkish Stream, with a capacity of 63 bcm per year. Instead of extending the pipeline further to Europe, Gazprom now plans to sell its gas at a hub on the Turkish-Greek border, requiring those European countries who want access to the gas to build links to the hub. "Now counties should be building (onshore links) on their own. The routes could be different -- they may come to Italy if they want. This is not our business anymore," he said. Novak added that the costs of the offshore parts of Turkish Stream would be "comparable" to those of the South Stream project. The budget to build the offshore section of South Stream was previously estimated at up to 17 billion euros ($18.3 billion). Russia is also planning to ramp up gas exports to Asia to reduce its reliance on sales to Europe. Russia plans to ship gas to China via two yet-to-be-built pipelines: Power of Siberia, supplied exclusively by two Siberian gas fields, and Altai, which is to connect the Russian gas pipeline system from West to East. Russia and China reached agreement on the Power of Siberia pipeline last May. Novak said he hoped for a firm contract for Altai in the first half of this year. "These (two) projects are not linked to each other... (The contract signed last May) will be implemented irrespective of whether Altai happens or not," Novak said. He added that Russia was sticking to plans to deliver its first gas to China via Power of Siberia at the end of 2018 or start of 2019. Russia and China are not discussing a prepayment or loan for the Power of Siberia project anymore, he said. VI. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/merkel-rejects-putin-s-wwii-victory-day-invite-over-ukraine-/517282.html Merkel Rejects Putin's WWII Victory Day Invite Over Ukraine ReutersMar. 11 2015 14:09 Last edited 14:09 Andrei Makhonin / Vedomosti Russia's then-President Dmitry Medvedev and Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel during the Victory Day parade in Moscow, May 9, 2010. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will not attend an official ceremony in Moscow on May 9 to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II due to tensions of the Ukraine crisis, government officials said Wednesday. "In light of the developments in Ukraine, it is impossible for Merkel to take part in the traditional military parade on Red Square," a government official said. However, the chancellor will lay a wreath at the Monument of the Unknown Soldier in the Russian capital one day later. Merkel visited Moscow on Feb. 6 together with French President Francois Hollande to prepare with Russian President Vladimir Putin an agreement to end fighting in eastern Ukraine. The European Union and the United States accuse Russia of arming the separatists in east Ukraine and reinforcing their ranks with troops. Moscow has repeatedly denied involvement and blames the United States for pushing the pro-Western government in Kiev to war. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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