[Not that his electoral opponents are known as great doves, but Benjamin Netanyahu, or Bibi - as he is known in his country, has turned even more hawkish that he usually is, as exemplified by his recent reckless trip to Washington DC, in a desperate attempt to gain power for another term.
In about another two hours the polling will be over. Exit poll results will start streaming in immediately thereafter.] I/II. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/17/us-israel-election-idUSKBN0MC2G620150317 Israelis vote as 'King Bibi's' reign hangs in the balance BY LUKE BAKER JERUSALEM Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:44am EDT (Reuters) - Millions of Israelis turned out to vote on Tuesday in a tightly-fought election, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing an uphill battle to defeat a strong campaign by the center-left opposition to deny him a fourth term in office. In many respects the election has turned into a referendum on "Bibi" Netanyahu, 65, who has been in power for a total of nine years spread over three terms. If he wins he would be on track to become Israel's longest-serving prime minister, but would probably also prolong a prickly relationship with the country's main ally, the United States, at least as long as Barack Obama is in the White House. Netanyahu has focused on the threat from Iran's nuclear program and militant Islam. But many Israelis say they are tiring of this message, and the center-left's campaign on social and economic issues, especially the high cost of housing and everyday living in Israel, appears to have won support. In a possible sign of edginess, Netanyahu took to Facebook to denounce what he said was an effort by left-wing non-profit groups to get Arab-Israelis out to sway the election against him. "The right-wing government is in danger," he wrote. "Arab voters are going to vote in droves. Left-wing NGOs are bringing them in buses." When the last opinion polls were published on March 13, the center-left Zionist Union led by Isaac Herzog held a four-seat lead over Netanyahu's Likud, a margin that had the opposition set for a surprise victory. But in the last days of campaigning, Netanyahu fought to shore up his Likud base and lure voters from other right-wing, nationalist parties, promising more building of Jewish settlements and saying the Palestinians would not get their own state if he were re-elected. Those sweeping promises, if carried out, would further isolate Israel from the United States and the European Union, which believe a peace deal must accommodate Palestinian demands for a state in the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza. But they may go some way towards persuading voters to stick with what they know, rather than another candidate on the right. Surveys show around 15 percent of voters are undecided, meaning the result could swing widely - opinion polls have rarely been good predictors of Israeli elections in the past. By 2 pm (1200 GMT), turnout was running just below the last election at around 37 percent. Voting ends at 10 pm, with the first exit polls published immediately afterwards. If Netanyahu can draw votes from other right-wing parties, he may be in a position to be asked first by Israel's president to try to form a governing coalition. No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel's 67-year history. Coalition-building is an unpredictable game, with any number of allegiances possible among the 10 or 11 parties expected to win a place in the 120-seat Knesset. It is also takes time: the party invited to try to form a government has up to 42 days to negotiate a coalition. It may be mid-May before Israel has a new government. COALITION TACTICS Since there are more parties on the right and far-right, Netanyahu is probably better placed to cobble together a coalition, even if he narrowly loses the vote. But if the center-left wins by four or more seats, it should get the nod first to try to form a government. Under sunny skies, Netanyahu went to vote early with his wife at a school near their home in Jerusalem. He acknowledged that it was a tight race and urged voters to back the right. "To prevent the rise to power of a left-wing party, there is only one thing to do - close the gap," he said. Herzog, who has overcome criticism of his slight stature and reedy voice to lead a resilient campaign, voted in Tel Aviv, where he emphasized that the election was about a new direction. "Whoever wants to continue the way of Bibi - despair and disappointment - can vote for him," he said. "But whoever wants change, hope, and really a better future for Israel, vote for the Zionist Union under my leadership." The son of a former president and the grandson of an eminent rabbi, Herzog, 54, is as close as it gets to having Kennedy-style heritage in Israel. While his leadership has been criticized in the past, he has shown wit and intellect on the campaign trail, bolstering his image among voters. "For the first time in my life, I'm going to be voting for Labour, that is the Zionist Union," said Dedi Cohen, 39, a lawyer in Tel Aviv. "The risk of Netanyahu building the next government is too big. How long has he been in power? Nine years? It's too much. Enough." Three or four parties are likely to decide how the balance of power tips in the coalition building. Moshe Kahlon, the leader of Kulanu, a centrist party that broke away from Likud, is seen as perhaps the most important "kingmaker". A former communications minister credited with bringing down mobile phone prices, Kahlon could ally with either Netanyahu or Herzog, bringing up to 10 seats with him. One of the party's candidates, Michael Oren, has said that whoever wins must try to repair relations with the United States, which have been under particular strain since Netanyahu addressed Congress on March 3, attacking a possible nuclear deal with Iran sought by Obama. Yair Lapid, the leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, could also ally with either side, bringing 12-14 seats. But he does not sit comfortably with religious parties, making him less flexible in coalition talks. If the center-left is to assemble a coalition, it will also need the support of ultra-Orthodox parties, which are expected to win around 13 seats. Another factor is the parties from Israel's 20 percent Arab minority, which for the first time have united under one list and are expected to win around 13 seats as well. While they are unlikely to join a center-left coalition, they could give it tacit support and create a block against Netanyahu. (Additional reporting Dan Williams in Tel Aviv; Editing by David Stamp) II. http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.647138 Seven post-election scenarios: What could happen after Israel votes? Will the polls hold, which party could surprise, who will be wiped out and will Bibi or Bougie get the nod from President Rivlin to form the next government? By Anshel Pfeffer | Mar. 16, 2015 | 1:33 PM The poll blackout since Friday evening means that for the last four days of the Israeli election polls, aside from rumors regarding the parties' own internal polling, we have little indication of the final and crucial voting trends. In the absence of information, we can only go on the current polls, which - perhaps unsurprisingly - are pretty uniform and on the kind of known unknowns that we can try to foresee based on previous elections. As the voting ends at 10 P.M. on Tuesday, the three main television channels will broadcast their exit-polls. These are usually quite accurate, and are swiftly updated with results coming in from districts which have finished their count. The picture may be quite clear by midnight; but if the gap between the two largest parties (Likud and Zionist Union) is close, and if any of the smaller parties are hovering around the electoral threshold, it may take a couple of days before the soldiers' votes are in before we know for certain. And then of course, there will be long weeks of meetings at the president's residence and coalition horse-trading. With all that taken into account, here are the main scenarios and sub-plots which could play out from Tuesday night onwards. Scenario 1: The polls hold - Kahlon goes with Netanyahu Nearly all the polls released on Thursday and Friday had Likud trailing Zionist Union by four seats. However, despite being in the lead, Isaac Herzog's list hasn't made that big a breakthrough, receiving at the most 26 seats. Neither has Benjamin Netanyahu suffered a complete meltdown and in most of the polls, the bloc of right-wing and religious parties expected to support a Likud government is slightly larger than the center-left bloc which will probably nominate Herzog. With such an outcome, Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu, currently polling at around ten seats, will hold the balance. The hopeful scenario in Netanyahu's circle is that Kahlon hasn't abandoned his Likudnik roots, and after exacting a hefty price from Netanyahu (the finance ministry for starters) he will recommend him to the president. Scenario 2: The polls hold - Herzog forms a government The major flaw in the previous scenario is Kahlon's evident antipathy and distrust towards Netanyahu. While he has remained opaque throughout the campaign, there is ample evidence that he has not changed his opinion of his old boss and will be happy to bring him down and serve in a Herzog cabinet. Kahlon's recommendation will deny Netanyahu the top job, but Herzog will still have to find a creative way to build a coalition that will have to include both ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, and Yesh Atid to command a Knesset majority. At present, that seems impossible, with the rabbis saying they will never sit with Yair Lapid in the same government, but once the election is over, all bets are off and if anyone can create that unlikely coalition, Herzog, the soft-spoken lawyer and grandson of a chief rabbi is the man. Scenario 3: The polls hold - National Unity government Instead of choosing between another Netanyahu government and burning his bridges with his old Likud friends, Kahlon could well choose the middle path and urge both party leaders to form a national unity coalition which will include the two big parties, Kulanu and the Haredim. He will find President Reuven Rivlin a willing partner for such a construction. Netanyahu has repeatedly ruled out such an outcome during the campaign but once the prospect of opposition and quite likely political demise is staring him in the face, he is likely to come around. Herzog, as well, may realize that sharing with Netanyahu is the only way to boost his lackluster image and appear a national leader. The main sticking point of course will be who gets to be prime minister. Rotation between the two party leaders, as Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir agreed upon in 1984 (with the encouragement of Herzog's father, then the president) is the likely solution. But even if they agree to split the term between them, who goes first? Scenario 4: Polling upset - Collapse in Likud vote In every election over the last two decades, there has been a last-minute surge of previously undecided voters, worth at least six seats for one of the parties, that the pollsters failed to detect in advance. In 2013, the beneficiary of the Election Day surprise was Yesh Atid, which catapulted way beyond expectations to second place with nineteen seats. Who will reap those late-deciders on Tuesday? There are a number of possible scenarios. Many believe it could be Kahlon who is still seen as the dark horse in this election. If the current pattern of former Likud voters opting this time for Kulanu deepens, a late surge for Kahlon would almost certainly come at Netanyahu's expense, widening the gap between Likud and Zionist Union and making it much easier for Herzog to claim he has a mandate. Forming a coalition would still take some maneuvering, but at least Netanyahu, as leader of a party with less than twenty seats, would be out of the picture. Scenario 5: Polling upset - Netanyahu closes the gap Likud has been in slow but steady decline in the polls for two months now, but a sudden reversal of Netanyahu's fortunes as the last-minute election surprise is not an unrealistic scenario. There are a lot of Likudniks out there who could change their minds, particularly in Naftali Bennett's Habayit Hayehudi which in 2013 jumped to twelve seats, largely at Likud's expense. While Bennett will only sit in a right-wing government, the urgent message has been going out to his voters that if the gap between Likud and Zionist Union isn't closed, there won't be such a government. Anecdotal evidence so far indicates that the message is effective. Four seats worth of voters going back to Likud from Habayit Hayehudi could be enough to close the gap. The Israeli left and much of the media has been euphoric in recent days over the prospect of saying farewell to Netanyahu. Erasing the gap would shatter them and Netanyahu should have a clear path to forming a coalition if he achieves near-parity with Herzog. Scenario 6: Polling upset - Small party wipeout Three parties are currently hovering perilously close to the electoral threshold of 3.25 percent of the vote. Nearly all the polls have Meretz, Yahad and Yisrael Beitenu crossing over into the next Knesset but the margin of error leaves room for doubt, especially with the prospect of a higher than average turnout due to an expected rise in the Arab sector. If any of the three are wiped out, it could have implications on the overall picture. A new Knesset without Meretz would leave Herzog's Zionist Union the sole remnant in what was once the largest political camp of the Zionist left (even Labor doesn't call itself left any longer). Even with a largish advantage over Likud, Herzog would find it impossible to build a majority without Meretz and the best he could hope for would be a national-unity government. On the right, losing either Yisrael Beitenu or Yahad would be less of a blow to Netanyahu. He has other parties supporting him. He would even be happy if Avigdor Lieberman's party was wiped out as he the two have fallen out and Lieberman has refused to endorse him as prime minister. Neither would Yahad failing to cross the threshold be fatal as at least one of its members, the Kahanist Baruch Merzel, will never be a member of his coalition. But what if two of the parties fail? Without Yahad and Yisrael Beitenu, the center-left bloc would probably be bigger for the first time since 1992, decisively denying Netanyahu a fourth term. If Meretz and one of the right-wing parties are obliterated and if all three are wiped out, it will change the electoral calculus but Herzog will still probably be the worse off. Scenario 7 - Deadlock Next week, once the final and official results are in, consultations with begin with the president. Whoever Rivlin believes has the best chance will receive the mandate to form a coalition in four weeks, with a possible extension of another two if necessary. Whether Herzog or Netanyahu get the nod, it will almost certainly be a protracted and grinding process which will ruin the Pesach and Independence Day holidays for political journalists and a small group of lawyers will accumulate a nice pile of future favors owed. What if the selected candidate fails? Netanyahu may hold a majority on paper but have exhausted his potential partners trust and goodwill. Herzog could lead by a significant gap but still fail in bridging the chasm between Haredim and Lapid. If the first choice fails, then another politician will get a chance for four more weeks. If that doesn't work, the mandate is passed to the newly elected Knesset where for three weeks any member can present a majority. Even the most deadlocked elections have eventually yielded a government, but the obstacles this time around may prove insurmountable. If the process is exhausted, then 90 days after the final deadline, another election is held. Back to the polls by September? An unbearable thought but a not implausible scenario. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
