[ Whether they will be offered one within the euro zone remains to
be seen. Although the result was a great political triumph for Tsipras
and Syriza, it doesn’t automatically translate into a victory in the
showdown with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Greece is still broke, and its banks are still closed. If the
Europeans want to force the Greeks out of their currency club, they
have the means to do it at any moment. All they have to do is turn off
the credit that the European Central Bank has been providing to
Greece’s banks. Indeed, the E.C.B.’s governing council will decide on
Monday what to do next.
With Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and François Hollande,
the French President, due to meet in Paris on Monday afternoon, and an
emergency summit of all European Union leaders scheduled for Tuesday,
it seems highly unlikely that the E.C.B. will render these
deliberations pointless by immediately torpedoing the Greek financial
system. In all likelihood, there will be at least one more round of
talks between the two sides, and, quite possibly, more than one.
Greece’s next big payment to its creditors isn’t due until July 23rd,
which is more than two weeks away. If the country’s banks can somehow
be propped up until then, there is time for more deliberation.]
http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/oxi-a-historic-greek-vote-against-austerity
July 5, 2015
“Oxi”: A Historic Greek Vote Against Austerity
By John Cassidy
In Athens, supporters of the "No" campaign wave flags after the first
results of the referendum. Credit PHOTOGRAPH BY YANNIS KOLESIDIS / EPA
/ LANDOV
For the second time in six months, the Greek public has voted against
the austerity policies that were imposed on the country as a result of
the international bailouts that took place in 2010 and 2012. In
elections held in January, Syriza, the left-wing alliance that
promised relief from spending cuts and a recession, won thirty-six per
cent of the vote and emerged as the largest party in the Greek
parliament. On Sunday, the vote against austerity was even more
decisive: in a referendum on whether Greece should accept a recent
offer from its creditors, sixty-one per cent of Greeks said,
“Oxi”—“No.”
The result defied the opinion polls, which had suggested a tight vote,
and it was quite overwhelming. Late Sunday night, it appeared that
every single electoral district had followed the advice of Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras and voted “No.” As the numbers came in,
Antonis Samaras, the head of the main opposition party, New Democracy,
who had urged Greeks to vote “Yes,” resigned. A jubilant Tsipras
hailed the results, saying that Greeks had acted bravely and proved
democracy cannot be blackmailed. However, Tsipras also stressed that
this wasn’t a mandate for rupture with Europe, but rather a vote to
strengthen Greece’s negotiating position within the euro zone.
To his credit, Tsipras had all along described the referendum as a
bargaining tool. The efforts by other European leaders to turn the
vote into a referendum on Greece’s continued membership in the euro
zone backfired horribly, apparently persuading many Greeks that their
plucky little country’s mighty neighbors were seeking to bully it into
submission. But the vote wasn’t just a nationalistic gesture. Having
lived through their own version of the Great Depression, most Greeks
really have had enough of austerity policies, and they are demanding
an alternative.
***Whether they will be offered one within the euro zone remains to be
seen. Although the result was a great political triumph for Tsipras
and Syriza, it doesn’t automatically translate into a victory in the
showdown with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Greece is still broke, and its banks are still closed. If the
Europeans want to force the Greeks out of their currency club, they
have the means to do it at any moment. All they have to do is turn off
the credit that the European Central Bank has been providing to
Greece’s banks. Indeed, the E.C.B.’s governing council will decide on
Monday what to do next.*** [Emphasis added.]
***With Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and François Hollande,
the French President, due to meet in Paris on Monday afternoon, and an
emergency summit of all European Union leaders scheduled for Tuesday,
it seems highly unlikely that the E.C.B. will render these
deliberations pointless by immediately torpedoing the Greek financial
system. In all likelihood, there will be at least one more round of
talks between the two sides, and, quite possibly, more than one.
Greece’s next big payment to its creditors isn’t due until July 23rd,
which is more than two weeks away. If the country’s banks can somehow
be propped up until then, there is time for more deliberation.***
[Emphasis added.]
And, as I’ve pointed out before, the elements of a possible deal
aren’t hard to draw up on paper. On the taxation and spending side,
the proposal that Syriza offered a couple of weeks ago went a good
deal of the way toward meeting the creditors’ demands. To be sure, it
was a long time coming, and some of its revenue-raising measures,
which would have increased taxes on businesses and wealthy people,
weren’t to the liking of the Troika. But the overall budget targets
were close to what the E.U. had demanded. With some goodwill and
flexibility on both sides, the differences on how to achieve them
could be narrowed. The same is true of the creditors’ demand for
structural reforms, some of which Syriza has embraced and some of
which the Party has resisted.
At this stage, the bigger sticking point is debt relief. Almost all
objective analysts reckon that it is necessary. Even the I.M.F. now
agrees. Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister, says he won’t
sign a deal that doesn’t address it. But will the big European
countries, especially Germany, even consider it? Or will they continue
to insist that Greece has to reach an agreement on everything else
first, and that only then can the discussion turn to debt? If they
stick with this line, it is hard to see how a compromise can be
reached.
As of early Monday, European time, the signals were mixed. In
Brussels, the European Commission issued a statement saying that it
“takes note of and respects the result of the referendum in Greece.”
Elsewhere in Europe, though, the reaction to the vote was less
accommodating. Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s economic-affairs minister,
said that negotiations over a new deal for the Greeks were “barely
conceivable,” adding, “Tsipras and his government are leading the
Greek people on a path of bitter abandonment and hopelessness.” Peter
Kažimír, the finance minister of Slovakia, said on Twitter, “The
nightmare of ‘euro-architects’ that a country could leave the club
seems like a realistic scenario,” before adding in a separate tweet
“Rejection of reforms by #Greece cannot mean that they will get the
money easier.”
In the financial markets, which seemed headed for a rocky opening
Monday, analysts were busy parsing the odds of a Grexit. The British
bank Barclays, for instance, issued a research note that said, “EMU
exit now is the most likely scenario.” On the streets of Athens,
however, where revelers celebrated the result of the referendum late
into the night, Matina Stevis, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal,
encountered a more hopeful attitude among Greeks, and tweeted, “What
I’m getting from people who voted ‘no’ is that they overwhelmingly
believe Tsipras & his promise of a new negotiation starting tomorrow.”
In the coming days, we will find out if this optimism is justified,
but one thing is clear. The Greek people have spoken—again.
On 06/07/2015, Sukla Sen <[email protected]> wrote:
> [Greece has delivered a resounding No to its creditors, in a move that
> has stunned the eurozone tonight and may shake the financial markets.
>
> In the last few minutes, the last ballot papers were counted. And No
> campaign has exceeded all expectations by securing 61.31% of the vote
> [here’s the official count].
>
> As our interactive shows, every area of Greece has voted to reject the
> proposals of Greece’s creditors and seek a better deal.
> ...
> Prime minister Alexis Tsipras has declared that it’s a historic day
> for Greece, which shows that democracy cannot be blackmailed.
>
> In a TV address, Tsipras has also vowed to begin negotiations with
> creditors to reach a sustainable deal to tackle Greece’s debt crisis.
> (Source:
> <http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/05/greeces-eurozone-future-in-the-balance-as-referendum-gets-under-way--eu-euro-bailout-live#block-5599c49ce4b032a39a3ba980>.)]
>
> I/II.
> http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/jul/06/greek-referendum-eu-leaders-call-crisis-meeting-as-bailout-rejected-live-updates
>
>
> Greece
> Greek referendum: Asian markets fall sharply after Greece no vote – live
>
> Tsipras: Democracy cannot be blackmailed
> Merkel and Hollande want emergency summit
> Latest summary: Greece votes No, by a landslide
> Photos: No supporters celebrate
> Analysts fear Greek banks may collapse
> Track the results here
>
> Snipped
>
> II.
> http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/jul/06/greek-referendum-eu-leaders-call-crisis-meeting-as-bailout-rejected-live-updates#block-559a13a2e4b00bdd27707ed3
>
> 4m ago06:40
> "Minister no more": Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis resigns
>
> In another extraordinary development the Greek finance minister has
> just announced his resignation.
>
> In a move likely to spark further concerns about the role of other
> European leaders in Greece’s internal politics, Varoufakis said he was
> made aware of a preference by “some European participants” of his
> absence throughout the continuing negotiations.
>
> The post was made on Varoufakis’ blog and there is nothing to suggest
> it is not authentic. It has also been cross-posted on his Twitter
> account.
>
> Here’s the post in full:
>
> The referendum of 5th July will stay in history as a unique moment
> when a small European nation rose up against debt-bondage.
>
> Like all struggles for democratic rights, so too this historic
> rejection of the Eurogroup’s 25th June ultimatum comes with a large
> price tag attached. It is, therefore, essential that the great capital
> bestowed upon our government by the splendid NO vote be invested
> immediately into a YES to a proper resolution – to an agreement that
> involves debt restructuring, less austerity, redistribution in favour
> of the needy, and real reforms.
>
> Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made
> aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and
> assorted ‘partners’, for my… ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that
> the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching
> an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance
> today.
>
> I consider it my duty to help Alexis Tsipras exploit, as he sees
> fit, the capital that the Greek people granted us through yesterday’s
> referendum.
>
> And I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride.
>
> We of the Left know how to act collectively with no care for the
> privileges of office. I shall support fully Prime Minister Tsipras,
> the new Minister of Finance, and our government.
>
> The superhuman effort to honour the brave people of Greece, and
> the famous OXI (NO) that they granted to democrats the world over, is
> just beginning.
>
>
>
> --
> Peace Is Doable
>
--
Peace Is Doable
--
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