[A presumed "hard-line" Modi government "gave in" to a persistent Pakistani demand on a full-spectrum dialogue without any visible progress on either the Mumbai attack trials or any assurance that Pakistan would not use terrorism tools against India. ... There is also the international dimension - Pakistan has linked its relations with India to everything - Afghanistan, its support to terror groups, its economy, its tactical nukes. Pakistan is accustomed to negotiating with a gun to its own head. And the US and UK are its principal allies. High level sources said John Kerry, fresh from the success of the Iran deal has indicated he may try to work between India and Pakistan. That would not only be unacceptable to India, it would seriously impact India's ties with the US, which is on an unprecedented upswing. India needed to take control of the bilateral narrative. It has, but nobody really knows what the road ahead looks like. (End of excerpts from the report below.)
It is necessary to recall that the first thaw this time round came in Ufa, Russia. Next in Paris, after a false start, triggered by Ufa. It's rather inconceivable that external prodding is not a major driver in this process of resumption of peace talks between the two nuclear armed belligerent neighbours. That causes all sorts of problems in both the countries domestically hampering the progress of the process. In fact, eventually reversing it. We've have a rather long history behind. This time, for now, let us keep our fingers crossed.] http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-Pak-dialogue-Triumph-of-hope-over-experience/articleshow/50122804.cms India-Pak dialogue: Triumph of hope over experience Indrani Bagchi | TNN | Dec 10, 2015, 04.34 PM IST [Video: Sushma Swaraj to the media] W DELHI: The resumed dialogue between India and Pakistan can best be described as the triumph of hope over experience. ***A presumed "hard-line" Modi government "gave in" to a persistent Pakistani demand on a full-spectrum dialogue without any visible progress on either the Mumbai attack trials or any assurance that Pakistan would not use terrorism tools against India.*** [Emphasis added.] It is a major, major concession by India. But it has transferred all performance anxiety on Pakistan. Pakistan now has to deliver big on the Mumbai trial - sources said they have shared a roadmap with India about how this is to be done. Pakistan and India have now opened a new dialogue front on terrorism to be conducted by operations experts rather than language-conscious diplomats. On the diplomatic side, we are back to dusting out old files on Wullar, Siachen, narcotics and trade, not to speak of "peace and security" and Jammu & Kashmir. The last was most important for Pakistan. Since Ufa, India attempted to start a set of dialogues with Pakistan without J&K being part of the mix. Pakistani officials acquiesced in Ufa, but this was their Sharm-el-Sheikh moment - the Army, aided by vociferous public opinion, vetoed it. Which resulted in the unedifying spectacle of a particularly low level "tu tu main main" diplomacy that left more scars and more bitterness than was warranted. READ ALSO: End of freeze? India, Pakistan to hold comprehensive dialogue Since then, India has been looking for ways to re-engage Pakistan. The volte face is stunning - last week the dominant discourse was whether India would allow a cricket series with Pakistan. This week Pakistan had an early Christmas - not only did Islamabad get foreign secretaries talks held simultaneously with NSA talks in Bangkok, now they have the entire larder of issues that Pakistan officials have always wanted to discuss for the nth time. A couple of things stand out from the Indian perspective. First, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is very keen to restart deep engagement with Pakistan. In Paris, the talks between Modi and Sharif centred on what it would take for Pakistan to walk the distance. After Paris, PM took the risky political decision to open up the entire gamut of engagement. This could not have been done by the previous UPA government which did not have the adequate political capital. Just like it took a Vajpayee to drive into Lahore, it takes a Modi, who is still politically secure to take this decision. In many ways, Modi too was looking at time slipping out of grasp - in another year, the political and economic climate in India may be very different. Second, Pakistan has moved as well - the NSA talks on terrorism, which is insulated from the vicissitudes of the start-stop process of the composite/resumed/comprehensive dialogue. The Bangkok talks were a very different kind of conversation - deep, hard, but fair, according to sources. Both Janjua and Doval are ops men - Janjua has commanded Pakistan soldiers in Swat, Siachen, Balochistan etc. Doval's expertise in security operations from his career in the Intelligence Bureau will stand him in good stead. This conversation will be the most crucial one between India and Pakistan, and will remain out of public glare, everybody will focus on the rehearsed drama of the composite dialogue. READ ALSO: India-Pak joint statement: 5 key highlights After decades of hope and disappointment, this time, both are absent. There are enough bodies on the floor and in Indian memory to remind us that Pakistan loves the instrument of terrorism against India, even after Musharraf's dramatic commitment in January 2004. Will Pakistan change its spots, or its terror? Like every government before, the Modi government too is keeping its fingers crossed. Top Comment I don't think there is need to feel so excited about the decision to resume talks. Pakistan would never deliver on w... Read More LD SEE ALL COMMENTSADD COMMENT ***There is also the international dimension - Pakistan has linked its relations with India to everything - Afghanistan, its support to terror groups, its economy, its tactical nukes. Pakistan is accustomed to negotiating with a gun to its own head. And the US and UK are its principal allies. High level sources said John Kerry, fresh from the success of the Iran deal has indicated he may try to work between India and Pakistan. That would not only be unacceptable to India, it would seriously impact India's ties with the US, which is on an unprecedented upswing. India needed to take control of the bilateral narrative. It has, but nobody really knows what the road ahead looks like.*** [Emphasis added.] Winter months are traditionally low-infiltration months, so there should be some quiet on the LOC. The test for Pakistan will be when spring arrives. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
