["India has been keen to complete the process during US President
Barack Obama’s tenure, given that he had made a commitment to help
India with the NSG during his visit in 2010."
It is quite interesting to note that only three journos are covering
the event at site, all from India.]
SEOUL, June 23, 2016
Updated: June 23, 2016 22:20 IST
As consensus eludes, NSG to meet tomorrow
SUHASINI HAIDAR
Leading the Indian team, Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar is giving the
last push to India's NSG membership application, in Seoul.
*Sources say the special session failed to arrive at a consensus on
non-NPT members, while India claims China is the only block to
membership* [emphasis in original]
Negotiations at the Seoul Nuclear Suppliers Group special session
threatened to stretch to midnight, as sources said "several" countries
remained opposed to the possibility of non-signatories to the Nuclear
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) being admitted to the group.
Earlier in the evening, India recieved a major boost to its chances
when the NSG had agreed to hold the discussion on its candidature, as
The Hindu had reported.
Government sources claim the "key meeting" had seen some clarity, with
a "consensus minus one", indicating that China was the only holdout.
Even so, the meeting, that began at 9 p.m. with all heads of
delegation present, has stretched far longer than diplomats expected.
While concerns from Turkey, Ireland, Austria and New Zealand had been
voiced in the past as well, even Brazil is believed to have spoken at
the session opposing a change to what are seen as a "core value" of
the 48-member NSG.
India has maintained that signing the NPT is not a pre-requisite for
becoming a member of the NSG. Significantly, the Indian team here led
by Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar had met with the Brazilian
delegation in a series of meeting on the sidelines of the summit
earlier in the day.
A source privy to the closed door consultations told The Hindu that
although the membership application from India was specifically on the
agenda of the meeting, "deliberations have not moved beyond the NPT
question, and we are yet to discuss India's case specifically."
The news of the impasse follows a meeting between Prime Minister
Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Tashkent, which
failed to bring a positive statement of support from China for India's
candidature.
China has taken a more nuanced position at the NSG, arguing for a
"criteria-based" process to be evolved for all non-NPT applicant
countries i.e. India and Pakistan. During the meeting Mr. Modi urged
Mr. Xi to make a "fair and objective assessment of India's application
and judge it only on its own merit," according to MEA spokesperson
Vikas Swarup.
Although the meeting of the 48-member NSG is a strictly closed-door
affair, diplomatic sources from several countries have confirmed their
delegation head will attend the session convened by Argentinian
Chairperson Rafael Grossi. Both Argentina and host South Korea have
been supportive of India’s case for a membership in the past year, and
delegates from both countries are understood to have worked on setting
up a special formal session on Thursday evening.
In a series of statements this week, China has maintained that the
issue of non-NPT countries like India applying for membership is not
on the agenda in Seoul. But several countries are understood to have
raised India’s case during the first day of the two-day plenary on
Thursday. Japan is understood to have even “welcomed” India’s
application, calling for it to be considered.
Diplomats cautioned against any optimism on the basis of the convening
of a special session, pointing out that there may be several possible
outcomes from the session. The NSG could agree to put off the decision
until the next plenary next year, or at a special plenary later this
year. In addition, the NSG could agree to China’s demand for a
“criteria-based process”, and refer it to a committee that could
involve delays as India and Pakistan’s current applications are
considered, as well as the possibility of other non-signatories like
Israel applying in the future.
The final decision may not be known until Friday, when the NSG is
expected to issue a statement on the plenary.
Besides Mr. Jaishankar, an expert in nuclear issues himself and who
has served in high profile positions in Indian missions in the US,
China, Russia and Japan (key countries in the NSG), the Indian team
includes its top official on nuclear issues Amandeep Singh Gill, who
has negotiated the details of India’s civil nuclear agreements and
MoUs with countries including Canada, US, Australia and Japan in the
past few years. Also in Seoul is India’s Ambassador to South Korea
Vikram Doraiswami, who has served in the PMO’s of both Atal Bihari
Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, and handled the America desk during the
crucial phases of the India-U.S. civil nuclear engagement.
US, UK, France proclaim support
In the past few days, countries like the U.S., the U.K. and France
have made public proclamations of support to India’s bid, calling on
other members to follow suit, while Russian President Putin said that
India’s case was “special” and must be supported within the ambits of
international law. The U.S., in particular, has been working the
phones to canvas for India.Hosts South Korea and the country chairing
the session, Argentina, have both been pushing India’s case as well,
and have ensured several rounds of unofficial talk between the NSG
members this past week.
Diplomats rejected criticism that India’s timeline was too
“ambitious.” “What we are asking for is immediate membership”, a
government source said on Wednesday, making it clear that India was
not pursuing a compromise solution or a deferment of the decision as
an option either.
“NSG members have discussed the question of non-NPT (countries that
haven’t signed the Non Proliferation Treaty) several times since 2011,
including up to the special session convened in Vienna on June 9-10”
said a senior official, indicating that the time to bring it on the
group’s formal agenda was now. China has been couching its opposition
to India’s accession by calling for “criteria-based” process for entry
of all non-NPT countries.
However, the criteria process has thrown up other problems in the past
few days. While India has said it would not object to other non-NPT
nations joining the NSG, it may not be as simple to convince others.
China and Turkey have been keen to bring Pakistan into the NSG-fold
along with India, but given Pakistan’s record in illicit nuclear
trade, non-proliferation hardliners like Ireland, Austria and New
Zealand would possibly disallow that.
Even countries like the U.S. have made it clear that Pakistan’s
membership application isn’t ready, until it puts many more safeguards
in place. Israel is the other non-NPT contender, although it has not
yet applied for membership, and no doubt will raise opposition from
some of the other members.
At present, unless China shifts its position, only Namibia, which is a
signatory of the NPT and has applied this year, is likely to be
considered, officials said.
If the membership issue is not taken up or discussed in the plenary,
it would not mean an end to India’s hopes, however, and the issue may
be taken up at another special session later this year.
***India has been keen to complete the process during US President
Barack Obama’s tenure, given that he had made a commitment to help
India with the NSG during his visit in 2010.*** [Emphasis added.]
When asked about the consequences of a loss in Seoul, External Affairs
Minister Sushma Swaraj had compared the NSG campaign to running a Lok
Sabha election campaign. “You close your ears to the possibility of
defeat,” he said.
According to a seasoned diplomat privy to the campaign, it was like
“learning to ride a bicycle”. “You wont know if you succeed until you
get on the bike. You may get hurt the first few times, but you have to
get back on and keep trying.”
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Peace Is Doable
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