http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/arithmetic-or-chemistry-sp-boosts-its-chances-by-allying-with-congress-but-bjp-remains-a-formidable-opponent/
Arithmetic or chemistry? SP boosts its chances by allying with Congress, but BJP remains a formidable opponent January 24, 2017, 2:00 AM IST Saba Naqvi in TOI Edit Page | Edit Page, India, politics | TOI The SP-Congress alliance changes equations in Uttar Pradesh in so far as there is potential for the elections to be about chemistry as opposed to just arithmetic. If it works, it would be driven by the leaders of both parties being young but primarily would ride on chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s incredible feat of appearing to be the anti-incumbent force against his own incumbent regime. It is certainly one of the great ironic twists of Indian democracy that dynasts of a national and regional party should at this point appear to be the young, anti-system agitators. Usually however UP is about arithmetic, which broadly means that the three major players, the SP-led alliance, BJP and BSP, are in a triangular contest in the first-past-the-post system aiming at around 30% of the vote. Most of the analysis derives from equations such as X community plus Y community means victory and so on. Competing parties therefore spend as much energy on trying to split the votes of their opponents as on garnering their own votes. Mayawati is playing the game with the arithmetic of Dalit (21% of the population) plus Muslim (20%) as seen in her giving more tickets to Muslim candidates than to Dalits. She must know that BSP is unlikely to get many upper caste votes as it did during its 2007 win because BJP is in the game and certainly has the edge with Brahmins (12%). Congress, which now appears viable as it rides on SP, would also attract a section of this caste. Till some months ago BSP was seen as the front-runner in the state polls. But that’s changed largely because the Akhilesh persona has suddenly become taller (even before he became SP supremo he was seen in opinion polls as the most popular CM candidate although his party was not popular). Akhilesh personally is a neutral sort of figure who can access the rustic inheritance of his family but is relatively urbane and speaks beyond sectional appeals. The big change that affected all lives in UP during his reign is the improvement in delivery of electricity for domestic consumption. Everybody therefore likes Akhilesh bhaiya, hence in central (110 seats) and eastern UP (150 seats), the battle would be between BJP and SP with a few seats witnessing a triangular contest with BSP. Western UP (125 seats) however is where the first phases begin and here BSP is traditionally considered strong as is BJP that has its principal communal laboratory here. But there are two double whammies that could hit BSP. One, the Muslim is also charmed by Akhilesh’s appeal and the idea of voting tactically is sometimes overstated. Second, among Dalits 52% are Chamars, who stand like a rock with Behenji, but groups like Valmikis (15% of Dalits) have also been communalised and are anti-Muslim in their orientation. Indeed, so many tickets given to Muslims results in counter-polarisation among other groups such as non-Chamar Dalits, EBCs and upper castes. The type of candidate who gets the tickets also facilitates this: in western UP an inordinately high number of conservatives, who fit the beard-cap stereotype, get the tickets and they are downright unattractive to voters outside their community. Simultaneously, BJP is always engaged in low grade communalisation and they have hard-line Hindu candidates of their own, who get a fresh lease of life whenever there is this wild pursuit of the Muslim vote. Post-demonetisation there are some changes in BJP’s vote-bank too. Baniyas may not be enthusiastic as they have been hit hard by the cash crisis and neither would the Jat farmers of western UP, but the question of whether they would desert BJP remains wide open. Meanwhile, by presenting himself as a pro-poor figure, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to widen the party’s social base and it would be interesting to see how many EBCs and Dalits choose the BJP option, presuming that most of those at the top of the caste ladder would be so inclined anyway. There is a low grade communal sentiment, most magnified in the west but also there in eastern parts of the state. The resentment of parties that rely on minorities can be made to work for BJP presuming other factors in its campaign click. Akhilesh would not know whether the gamble of giving so many seats to Congress will work and whether both parties have the capacity to transfer votes. But he has a calm temperament. When i met him last month he showed me a clip on his phone of an unreleased animation film that was a spoof on SP. Four minions (the cartoon characters) come walking down a winding road. They have the faces of the four Yadavs – Mulayam, Akhilesh, Ram Gopal, Shivpal. As they stroll arm in arm the popular Hindi song is playing “Ek doosre se karte hain pyar hum/ Ek doosre ke liye bekarar hum/ Ek doosre ke wastey marna pade to, hain taiyar hum …(We love each other/we are ready to die for each other).” It was genuinely funny and as the family battle subsequently worsened to end in Akhilesh’ favour, i would often remember the spoof and say that at the very least this is a politician who can laugh at himself. Now the real battle begins. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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