[The new Indian Army chief, General Bipin Rawat became the first
senior official who publicly confirmed the existence of the Cold Start
doctrine. The strategic community was alerted by his assertions. Vipin
Narang and Walter C. Ladwig III wrote in The Hindu that the Indian
army lacks the material and organisation to implement the Cold Start
strategy. They argued that India has too few troops and tanks, it
faces critical equipment shortages, and the army and air force do not
coordinate air support. “This has put India in the worst possible
strategic position: claiming a capability that it does not have, but
which provides justification for Pakistan’s aggressive expansion of
its conventional and nuclear forces”, they added.
The western policy makers were always cynical about the Cold Start
doctrine. They argue that the doctrine has pushed Pakistan into
developing the TNWs. There is a further angle to it. “Given the Nasr
missile’s range of just 60 kilometres, TNWs would per force be
physically located with forward commanders, and control over them
decentralised early in any conflict”, writes Ajai Shukla in the
Business Standard. He further said, “de-centralisation would render
TNWs vulnerable to theft by jihadi groups, or unauthorised use by
renegade Pakistani commanders”.]

http://m.greaterkashmir.com/news/opinion/-cold-start-is-too-hot-to-manage/239646.html

‘Cold Start’ is too hot to manage

Have non-military solutions to resolve problems

Sajad Padder

Srinagar | Posted : Jan 26 2017 1:03AM | Updated: Jan 25 2017 10:11PM

File Photo

Few days back, the outgoing US Vice President Joe Biden discussed the
Obama administration’s achievements in addressing the dangers posed by
nuclear weapons under the Prague Agenda, and highlighted the nuclear
security challenges facing the next administration. He underlined that
the nuclear weapons, the proliferation of this deadly knowledge to
more nations, and the possibility of terrorists obtaining nuclear
materials, remain among the most pressing security challenges. In his
speech, her further empahsised: “Not just North Korea, but Russia,
Pakistan, and others have made counterproductive moves that only
increase the risk that nuclear weapons could be used in a regional
conflict in Europe, South Asia, or East Asia”. The reference to
Pakistan concerns us all in the region and it’s important to
understand the changing nuclear dynamics in South Asia.

Nuclear weapons have nutralised India’s conventional military
superiority. It’s partly responsible for frustrating India’s capacity
to react to “Pakistan’s constant provocations”. The first test came
during the Kargil war of 1999. In Kargil, although the guerrillas and
Pak army had crossed the Line of Control (LoC), the Indian military
response was limited to defending its part of territory rather than
striking the targets across the border. India had ensured that its
forces including the air force shall stay within the Indian territory.
The second major incident was the attack on Parliament in 2001. In
response to this provocation, Indian mobilised its troops along the
LoC and International border but with no effect. The intension was to
put pressure on Pakistan and to invite international condemnation for
its irresponsible behaviour. The 2008 Mumbai terror attacks also
mandated a rethink over the appropriate response to the cross border
provocations. In his book ‘Choices: Inside the making of India’s
Foreign Policy’, India’s former national security advisor Shivshankar
Menon wrote that in the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks, the
then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and he as the foreign
secretary had favoured immediate retaliatory strikes inside Pakistan
and Pak-Administered Kashmir which did not happen.

India tried to deal with this dilemma in at least two ways. After the
Kargil war, Indian military and some political leaders suggested that
despite nuclearisation India reserves the right to fight a limited
conventional war. The assumption was to punish Pakistan in a brief and
swift scuffle without worrying for the escalation. But this ‘limited
war doctrine’ couldn’t gain much traction thereafter. After the
Parakram failure, the Indian army came up with the ‘Cold Start’
doctrine’. It’s an operational plan for swift mobilisation of troops
to launch lightning strikes across the border before the international
community could intercede. Though the army and other services have
conducted several military exercises to test out elements of the Cold
Start doctrine, its political status remained uncertain. No political
leaders have so far used the concept publicly or spoken about it, not
even the present BJP led government.

The key issue, as rightly put forth by the strategic community, is not
so much of the speed with which Indian forces can be mobilised but the
question of whether there are any military solutions to the problem of
“Pakistan’s sponsorship of terrorism” itself. There’re no easy
answers.

***The new Indian Army chief, General Bipin Rawat became the first
senior official who publicly confirmed the existence of the Cold Start
doctrine. The strategic community was alerted by his assertions. Vipin
Narang and Walter C. Ladwig III wrote in The Hindu that the Indian
army lacks the material and organisation to implement the Cold Start
strategy. They argued that India has too few troops and tanks, it
faces critical equipment shortages, and the army and air force do not
coordinate air support. “This has put India in the worst possible
strategic position: claiming a capability that it does not have, but
which provides justification for Pakistan’s aggressive expansion of
its conventional and nuclear forces”, they added.*** [Emphasis added.]

***The western policy makers were always cynical about the Cold Start doctrine.
They argue that the doctrine has pushed Pakistan into developing the
TNWs. There is a further angle to it. “Given the Nasr missile’s range
of just 60 kilometres, TNWs would per force be physically located with
forward commanders, and control over them decentralised early in any
conflict”, writes Ajai Shukla in the Business Standard. He further
said, “de-centralisation would render TNWs vulnerable to theft by
jihadi groups, or unauthorised use by renegade Pakistani
commanders”.*** [Emphasis added.]

Joe Biden warns in his speech: “We know that terrorists have both the
capacity and the goal of transforming nuclear materials into weapons
to sow havoc. And we know that no nation acting alone can defeat this
threat.” This advice from a veteran politician must prevail upon the
policy makers of India and Pakistan. For the safety and security of
South Asia, both countries need to put in place a series of nuclear
Confidence Building Measures to avoid any future catastrophe. The
issue of TNWs and Cold Start probably never came up for discussion
during the bilateral meetings. Both countries must avail non-military
solutions to resolve their problems. A better way forward is to revive
the composite dialogue process which was put under suspension after
the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks. The dialogue framework satisfies both
the sides with Kashmir, terrorism and CBMs high on the agenda.

(The author has done his PhD in Political Science from the University
of Kashmir, Srinagar)




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