[The author, Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar, is a prominent Indian journalist and columnist. He is consulting editor for the Economic Times [the leading Indian financial daily - catering to and advocating the cause the cause of Indian trade and industries] and writes regularly for the Economic Times and The Times of India [the leading national newspaper]. (Source: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swaminathan_Aiyar>.)]
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Swaminomics/trumps-no-ally-of-india-handle-him-with-care/ Trump’s no ally of India, handle him with care January 29, 2017, 12:15 AM IST SA Aiyar in Swaminomics | India | TOI Don’t get euphoric because Narendra Modi was fifth in the list of world leaders to be phoned by Donald Trump on assuming office. Before phoning Modi, Trump called the president of Mexico, whom he has now kicked in the testicles by declaring that he will force Mexico to pay for the new border wall. Canada was higher on Trump’s phone list than India, and he has warned Canada that the NAFTA treaty must be renegotiated in America’s favour. Being high on Trump’s phone list is at best irrelevant and at worst a warning. Forget Trump’s breezy declarations of friendship to Modi. This means no more than his telling Nawaz Sharif in December that he was “a terrific guy”. Trump wants “friends” that do his bidding. Doormats are most welcome. He is a raging bull, raging against his country’s relative decline. He will trample those in the way of his “America First” approach, including close historical allies like NATO and Japan. India is not important enough for him to target immediately. But, make no mistake, he will not spare India his neo-protectionist, neo-isolationist avatar. He is willing to scrap the liberal economic consensus that the US forged in the 20th century, helping it win the Cold War. This is going to hurt all those who gained from that liberal, globalising era, including India. Indo-US friendship in the wake of Trump presidency made it to Suttur fair as a giant kite used the two world leaders bromance as its theme during the kite competition Trump’s declarations of friendship to Modi mean no more than his telling Nawaz Sharif that he’s ‘a terrific guy’. He wants ‘friends’ who do his bidding If pushed beyond a point, China will retaliate against Trump’s protectionism. That could lead to global trade wars of the sort that deepened the 1930s Great Depression. Normally, the situation would be saved by diplomacy, but Trump seems contemptuous of diplomatic niceties. He will get tough on visas for Indian software engineers to work in the US. He will get tough on drug patents and other intellectual property rights. He could get aggressive on India’s high agricultural tariffs. Nothing about him is predictable except that he believes he can bully his way through anything. The Bush-Obama approach saw India as the only credible check on China in the 21st century. So, the US wooed India with one-way concessions, like the nuclear deal and backing for a seat in the UN Security Council. Those days of one-way goodies are over. Trump wants reciprocity at the very least, and one-way goodies in his direction if possible. He has already nixed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, decreed cash penalties for US cities that do not act against undocumented immigrants, ordered the construction of a wall on the Mexican border that Mexico will have to pay for, banned visas for Muslims from many countries, and told NATO allies to pay more for defence or lose US support. He has cleared the controversial Keystone pipeline with the proviso that the pipes must be manufactured in the US (which will breach WTO rules). He rejects the multilateral trade approach where the views of many nations count, and wants instead bilateral trade deals where the sheer size and clout of the US can be used to extract better terms. How does one handle a superpower that has become a raging bull? With caution, flexibility and new alliances. Do not assume that a raging bull is a friend, but don’t wave a red rag in its face either. Resist protectionism and bullying smilingly without ugly confrontations. Use technical hurdles (like WTO rules and dispute mechanisms) to the maximum. Aim to create new alliances on different issues. It will be suicidal to take on Trump unilaterally, but coalitions will have more clout. Europe and Japan will have problems with Trump, and India could join hands with them on select issues. China proclaimed itself at Davos to be the new champion of a liberal economic order, singing hosannas to globalisation like the US used to during the Cold War. India cannot treat China as a friend, but can join hands with it on trade. India has joined the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and BRICS Bank, and more of this is feasible. However, it would be a mistake to join a free trade area with China: that will kill Indian manufacturing. Maybe the Trump approach will fail, and the US will revert to normal. Protectionist tantrums are common but temporary in democracies, and maybe this one will pass. But there is a major risk that the globalising, liberal economic order of the 20th century is over. India must prepare for a new, more inward-looking world, one that includes outright trade wars. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
