[A combination of factors – Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s undiminished popularity, excellent social engineering, and a sharp polarisation on religious lines – has given the Bharatiya Janata Party a clear edge in the crucial Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, where the sixth phase of polling was held on Saturday with the seventh and final round due on Wednesday. The other political players, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance are undoubtedly snapping at its heels but the BJP managed to set the agenda, especially in the second half of the seven-phase election, and was constantly ahead with its messaging. ... The battle lines are clear. It is now to be seen if the BJP’s strategy will take it past the finish line when the election results are declared on March 11.]
https://scroll.in/article/830917/the-modi-factor-caste-calculations-and-a-communal-divide-make-the-bjp-the-one-to-beat-in-up ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS UP 2017: The Modi factor, caste calculations and a communal divide make the BJP the party to beat The party has also made an unapologetic return to its Hindutva agenda in the second half of the seven-phase polls. Yesterday · 10:30 am. Anita Katyal A combination of factors – Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s undiminished popularity, excellent social engineering, and a sharp polarisation on religious lines – has given the Bharatiya Janata Party a clear edge in the crucial Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, where the sixth phase of polling was held on Saturday with the seventh and final round due on Wednesday. The other political players, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance are undoubtedly snapping at its heels but the BJP managed to set the agenda, especially in the second half of the seven-phase election, and was constantly ahead with its messaging. The BJP redrew its strategy after a hesitant start, when reports indicated that Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s new avatar – after snatching the reins of the Samajwadi Party from his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and uncle Shivpal Yadav in January after a bitter family feud – had found a huge fan following, especially among the youth and women. Realising that the party was handicapped because it did not have a chief ministerial candidate, BJP strategists then decided to pitch the prime minister as its main campaigner, as it had done in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. As a result, Modi campaigned at a break-neck speed over the past two weeks and will bring down the curtain on this election with a grand show of strength in his Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi before the last polling day on March 8. Besides making it a Modi-centric election, the last phases of the Assembly polls witnessed the saffron party make an unapologetic return to its core Hindutva agenda. These efforts were effectively supplemented by the BJP’s conscious outreach to non-Yadav Other Backward Classes. Once dismissed as a “shehri” or urban party traditionally backed by Brahmins and Banias (traders), the BJP has succeeded in penetrating the rural hinterland and expanding its support base beyond the upper castes. The talking point Travelling through parts of Poorvanchal Uttar Pradesh such as Varanasi, Ghazipur, Mau, Mirzapur and Bhadoi, it was not unusual to find the BJP flag fluttering above hutments in small villages while the party symbol, the kamal (lotus), is now well recognised even as Modi remains the chief talking point. Conversations in dusty alleys and villages invariably veer to Modi’s towering personality, as people speak admiringly about how he works selflessly for the country, takes independent decisions and has raised India’s prestige across the globe. With the exception of Ghazipur, where residents dwell at length about the work done by local MP and Union Telecom Minister Manoj Sinha, there’s hardly any mention of other BJP leaders. The general refrain is that they are voting for Modi and not the BJP. As I chatted with a group of villagers on the Bhadoi-Mirzapur road, a taxi driver, who was ferrying passengers from Allahabad, stopped and asked fervently, “Modiji jeetenge na… Allahabad mein to jeet rahein hain [Modi will win right? Victory is certain in Allahabad].” The villagers, all Brahmins, nodded vigorously and assured him that they were all supporting the prime minister. It’s the same story everywhere. Whether it is Vinod Kumar, a café owner in Varanasi, or Amit Chaurasia, a general store owner in Mau, they all maintain that like the 2014 general elections, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls also revolves around Modi. “Mazaa aayega agar Modi jeet gaya,” said Kumar. It will be fun if Modi wins. Similarly, Vijay Shankar Gupta, a shopkeeper in Mau, declared, “We are looking at Modi, not the candidate. Winning combination The Modi magic is, however, only one part of the story in this election. The BJP owes its pre-eminent position in Uttar Pradesh to party president Amit Shah, who got down to the task of building the party organisation in this Hindi heartland state soon after it swept to power at the Centre in 2014 by winning 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats here. Shah mapped each constituency and identified and trained potential leaders at the village-level from among backward castes like Kushwahas, Binds, Khatiks, Patels and Rajbhars, who have been battling the dominant Yadav community as it cornered the bulk of the perks of reservation because of its affiliation with the ruling Samajwadi Party. These castes had, so far, offered grudging support to the Samajwadi Party or even the Bahujan Samaj Party, essentially because they had no other choice. But the BJP positioned itself as an attractive option for them by inducting members of the backward castes in leadership positions and also agreeing to share power with them. To shore up its support among these backward castes, the BJP stitched up alliances with Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal, with its committed support base of Patels, and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party that represents the Rajbhar caste, which has a substantial presence in eastern Uttar Pradesh. The BJP further demonstrated its commitment to these caste groups when it appointed Keshav Prasad Maurya, a non-Yadav Other Backward Classes leader, as its state party chief and followed it up by giving a large number of tickets to members of backward castes. For instance, Apna Dal candidate Neel Rattan Patel has been fielded from the Patel-dominated Sewapuri constituency in Varanasi while Om Prakash Rajbhar, president of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, is its candidate in Ghazipur’s Jahoorabad Assembly segment. The gambit seems to be paying off. As Gulab Sonkar, a farm labourer in the Saidpur Assembly segment of Ghazipur said, “Earlier, we did not have a hero but today we have found one in Modi.” He then proceeded to explain why the BJP is giving a tough fight to its rivals in Ghazipur even though Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati has strengthened her position here after her tie-up with local don-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari. The party has fielded backward caste candidates in five of these seats. “You see, the BSP has the support of the Jatavs and Muslims but the BJP is being backed by the upper castes like the Brahmins and Thakurs as well as backward castes like the Prajapatis, Kushwahas and Binds,” Sonkar said. “This is a winning combination.” According to Shiv Gupta, a resident of Madhuban in Mau, the BJP is strong in eastern Uttar Pradesh because of its caste combinations. “The BJP has successfully played the backward card in these elections,” he said. “And it has done so without alienating the upper castes, which have been its traditional supporters.” Alternative to Akhilesh At the same time, the BJP has worked assiduously to demolish Akhilesh Yadav’s perceived clean image. The party mounted an exhaustive campaign to highlight how the Samajwadi Party’s Yadav supporters had spread terror in the state ever since it came to power five years ago. The law and order situation, it was pointed out, had deteriorated during this period because the culprits enjoyed state protection. This has resonated with the people, especially the smaller backward castes that have always been targeted by the Yadavs. While the Yadavs and Muslims insist that Akhilesh Yadav is the “heartbeat of the youth”, any reference to the chief minister draws a standard response from the others. “We agree Akhilesh is a good person, has a clean image but we have to deal with his local supporters who have spread goonda raj in our villages,” said Shiv Gupta. According to Vijay Kumar Pande, a building contractor in Mirzapur, the Samajwadi Party favoured only the Yadavs while the others were being ignored. Shyamlal Vishwakarma, a backward caste labourer in Bhadoi’s Nagar Assembly constituency, agreed: “Yadavs around this region are bahubalis [strongmen] so people have developed an allergy to them.” Religious divide While discussions on the elections generally centre on the complicated caste combinations in the various constituencies, the underlying communal divide is unmistakable. Prime Minister Narendra Modi set the tone in his February 19 speech at an election rally in Fatehpur when he declared, “If a village has a kabristan [graveyard], it should have a shamshan [crematorium]. If there is uninterrupted electricity during Ramzan, it should be the same during Diwali.” The cue was immediately picked up by other BJP leaders and candidates who have been articulating the same line in their campaign speeches. This is especially so in Mirzapur-Bhadoi and Ghazipur, which have a substantial Muslim population. Ratnakar Mishra, the BJP candidate from the Nagar seat in Mirzapur, told Scroll.in that his campaign was focused on development. “People here want roads, electricity and jobs… that’s my main agenda,” he said. But shortly into the conversation, he lowered his tone and said, “Do you know, this time Muslims will not allow their wives to caste their vote. They are afraid they might vote for Modi because he has raised the issue of triple talaq.” The reference was to the Centre moving the Supreme Court in October for a ban on the practice, where a Muslim man can divorce his wife by uttering the word talaq thrice. After he left, Mayank Mishra, a resident of the Brahmin-dominated Sripati village in Mirzapur, added darkly, “Actually, this time Muslims will not come out to vote in large numbers… that’s because they are scared of Modi and what he will do to them.” The BJP’s communal card has always been embraced by the upper castes but it has also fuelled a strong anti-Muslim sentiment among the backward classes. “The Samajwadi Party always favoured one community… look what they have done here,” remarked Mithai Lal Sonkar, a resident of Mau Sadar constituency. “I am told they have published an Urdu map in Saidpur. People can barely read Hindi… who is going to read Urdu. Don’t forget this is Hindustan.” Dominant force A poor third in the last Assembly polls in 2012, the BJP has emerged as the chief contestant in all the constituencies this time round. The Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance are putting up a tough fight in a number of Assembly seats but the difference this time is that they are always pitted against the BJP, which is now a dominant political force in Uttar Pradesh. “Whether it is Akhilesh Yadav or Mayawati, both are locked in a direct battle with the kamal,” explained Uma Shankar Singh, a resident of Ghosi in Mau. “It is either the BJP versus the BSP or the BJP versus the Samajwadi Party.” ***The battle lines are clear. It is now to be seen if the BJP’s strategy will take it past the finish line when the election results are declared on March 11.*** [Emphasis added.] -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. 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