I/III. http://fpif.org/diplomacy-with-north-korea-a-real-benchmark-for-president-trumps-100-days/
Diplomacy with North Korea: A Real Benchmark for President Trump’s 100 Days If Trump wants to make an early mark with North Korea, it should be with the only thing that's ever worked: diplomacy. By Christine Ahn, April 26, 2017 The Trump administration recently announced an emergency meeting with 100 senators at the White House, where many speculated that Trump would disclose new intelligence to justify U.S. military action against North Korea, or else more sanctions. Neither would constitute a success in the Trump administration’s first 100 days. What would is calling for diplomacy to avert nuclear war. Any military action by the United States, however limited, would provoke a conflict that could instantly kill millions on the Korean peninsula — and threaten a regional nuclear war that could draw in Japan, China, and Russia. Every president before Trump considered a pre-emptive strike against North Korea, but they were quickly sobered by the reality that a military option would trigger a counter-reaction from Pyongyang. The Obama, Bush, and Clinton administrations all felt they couldn’t justify military action that would kill millions of South Koreans and endanger the 28,500 U.S. soldiers and 230,000 U.S. citizens residing there. The most serious brush was in 1994, when President Clinton considered a pre-emptive strike on North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear reactor. The Pentagon concluded — well before Pyongyang possessed nuclear weapons — that even limited action would claim a million lives in the first 24 hours, if North Korea retaliated with conventional strikes on Seoul. President Obama, too, considered surgical strikes, but as The New York Times journalist David Sanger reported, “the risks of missing were tremendous, including renewed war on the Korean peninsula.” Stratfor, a global intelligence firm, also raises questions about the suggestion that it’s possible to destroy North Korea’s nuclear infrastructure in a single strike. “We simply do not have a comprehensive or precise picture of the North Korean nuclear program, especially when it comes to the number of weapons and delivery vehicles,” it says. “We do not know for sure where they are located or how well they are protected.” Pyongyang was sure to communicate this during its military parade on the 105th birthday of its founder Kim Il Sung, when it showcased its nuclear-capable and mobile Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs). Not a sitting duck, TELS would allow North Korea to fire missiles from anywhere, from a forest or mountain, against Japan and South Korea. “There is no South Korean leader who thinks the first strike by the U.S. is okay,” said Suh Choo-suk, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. “The Security of South Korea is as important as that of the U.S.,” reminded Moon Jae-in, the leading South Korean presidential candidate. “No pre-emptive strike should be carried out without the consent of South Korea” — especially “in the absence of a South Korean president.” The second leading candidate Ahn Chul-soo cautioned, “We need to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue in a peaceful manner.” Importantly, North Korea has threatened to retaliate only in response to a U.S. pre-emptive military strike. In its 7th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un affirmed that his country would not use nuclear weapons unless its sovereignty was violated. Last week, DPRK Vice Foreign Minister Han Song-ryol explained that his government’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles was “to protect our government and system from threat and provocation from the United States.” Former Secretary of Defense William Perry, who helped negotiate a freeze of North Korea’s nuclear program during the Clinton administration, agrees: “I believe that the danger of a North Korean ICBM program is not that they would launch an unprovoked attack on the United States — they are not suicidal.” President Trump must avoid at all costs a direct military confrontation with North Korea, which has a long history of engaging in brinksmanship. The United States has been successful in defusing past crises by working in partnership with U.S. allies in the region. Today, China calls for restraint, and South Korea is urging a diplomatic solution. That diplomatic solution must include a formal resolution of the Korean War, which was only temporarily halted by a ceasefire when North Korean and American military commanders signed the Armistice Agreement in 1953. President Trump could demonstrate his art of deal making by advancing the only solution that’s ever worked: diplomacy and engagement. Foreign Policy In Focus columnist Christine Ahn is the international coordinator of Women Cross DMZ, a global movement of women mobilizing for peace in Korea. II/III. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/27/politics/donald-trump-north-korea-senators-meeting/ Yes, Donald Trump set up senators for a photo op on North Korea Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large Updated 1635 GMT (0035 HKT) April 27, 2017 [Video] Full Senate summoned for rare briefing at WH 02:35 Story highlights Ostensibly the reason for the trip was a classified briefing on the growing threat posed by North Korea But the reviews coming out of the briefing from senators suggested that it wasn't deeply revelatory Washington (CNN)It was quite the spectacle. Nearly every member of the world's greatest deliberative body piling onto buses to take the mile-long ride to the White House on Wednesday afternoon was the definition of a made-for-TV moment. And every network carried it -- from the motorcade up Pennsylvania Avenue to the buses parked at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Sen.: North Korea briefing 'complete optics' Sen.: North Korea briefing 'complete optics' 01:07 Ostensibly the reason for the trip was a classified briefing on the growing threat posed by North Korea and its quest for nuclear weapons. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, Defense Secretary James Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, led the briefing. (The quartet later briefed House members -- on Capitol Hill.) And there's no question that the situation with North Korea not only appears to be growing more urgent but has also turned into a front-of-the-mind issue for this President and his top advisers. But the reviews coming out of the briefing from senators suggested that it wasn't deeply revelatory. "It was an OK briefing," said Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, in something short of a ringing endorsement. First 100 days Democrats were even less complimentary. "We learned nothing you couldn't read in the newspaper," Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley told CNN's Erin Burnett Wednesday night. "It felt more like a dog-and-pony show to me than anything else," Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth told CNN's Anderson Cooper. "I guess it has something to do with this 100 days in office." Remember this: Donald Trump's experiences over the last decade and a half are in the world of reality TV. That's a place where how things look matters. A lot. Where power dynamics are on display for all to see. Where faking it until you make it is the law of the land. Sen.: N. Korea briefing a 'dog and pony show' Sen.: N. Korea briefing a 'dog and pony show' 02:43 And, even before he became a reality TV star with "The Apprentice," Trump was intensely focused on appearances. His creation of the character "John Barron," a non-existent PR guy who touted Trump's love life and popularity to the media, is only one example of Trump's intense interest in manipulating how he is perceived by the public. With his 100 day-mark in office rapidly approaching on Saturday and with lots of criticism that he simply hasn't accomplished much bouncing around Washington, what better way to reassert your dominance -- or at least centrality to the political conversation -- by making senators board buses to come to you to talk? The fact that the White House was cagey on whether Trump would even be at the meeting -- and that he only stopped by for 14 minutes of the hour-long briefing -- further reinforces the message that Trump is the main actor in this drama while the senators are minor players. That he is a very busy guy who can't spend a whole lot of time with the US Senate -- even though they did come to the White House to hear from him and his advisers. Trump, of course, is far from the only president (or politician) to stage a photo op. It happens all the time. But rarely do you see US senators used as the scenery the way they were on Wednesday. III. https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-27/putin-warns-north-korea-situation-has-seriously-deteriorated Putin Warns North Korea Situation Has ‘Seriously Deteriorated’ by Ilya Arkhipov April 27, 2017, 9:48 PM GMT+5:30 Russian leader urges restraint after talks with Japan’s Abe Russia, Japan may consider new sanctions, Kremlin aide says [Video: How China and the U.S. Could Deal With North Korea] Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the crisis over North Korea’s nuclear program is deepening after the issue dominated talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Moscow. He and Abe believe the situation on the Korean peninsula has “seriously deteriorated,” Putin said Thursday after the Kremlin meeting. “We call on all states involved in the region’s affairs to refrain from military rhetoric and seek peaceful, constructive dialogue.” Abe said he and Putin spent a long time discussing North Korea during the three hours of talks that also focused on resolving a seven-decade long dispute over four islands seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. The issue has prevented Russia and Japan from signing a peace accord. The 17th meeting between the two leaders took place after Russia warned on Wednesday that the Korean peninsula is “on the brink of war.” Japan has sent warships to join drills with the U.S. aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, which is leading a battle group ordered to the region by President Donald Trump. Putin and Abe are also trying to settle the dispute over the sovereignty of the islands, known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the South Kurils in Russia. They agreed to create plans for economic cooperation on the islands during talks at a Japanese hot-spring resort near Abe’s ancestral home in December. Sanctions Talks While Putin and Abe didn’t discuss possible new sanctions against North Korea, the issue may be taken up during talks between the Russian and Japanese foreign ministries, Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters after the meeting. Putin said six-party talks on North Korea involving Russia, Japan, China, the U.S. and South Korea should be revived. Japan and Russia will continue to cooperate closely to urge North Korea to abide by United Nations Security Council resolutions and to abstain from “provocative actions,” Abe said. Putin said he and Abe agreed to develop a list of “top priority” projects for cooperation on the Kurils, while Russia will provide a direct air connection to enable former Japanese residents to visit the graves of family members on the islands. Japanese officials and business people will travel to the islands in the summer, Abe said. Resolving the territorial dispute will pave the way for Russia and Japan to sign a peace treaty, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call. “We expect that sooner or later there’ll be the political will to sign this important document,” he said. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. 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