I/III. [Secretary Tillerson has long sounded like one of the administration’s toughest North Korea hardliners. In mid-March, he said that the US would only negotiate with North Korea after the country gave up its nuclear weapons — and said military action against Pyongyang was “an option.” In an April statement, he said that “the United States has spoken enough about North Korea” and was ready to act, alone if necessary. All of this appeared to change on Thursday, when Tillerson sat down for a wide-ranging interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep. In the interview, Tillerson endorsed “direct” negotiations with North Korea, with the aim of getting them to give up their nuclear weapons. Denuclearization was no longer a precondition of talks, it seemed; it was now their endgame. ... While substantive policies may remain the same as Obama’s, in that Trump is deploying THAAD and not declaring war on North Korea, the mere fact that he’s threatened to do some wild stuff changes the way America is perceived. And in foreign policy, perception can determine reality: There’s a real risk, every time someone in the administration mouths off about Korea, that they end up complicating America’s strategic position on the peninsula without meaning to.]
http://www.vox.com/world/2017/4/28/15470550/trump-north-korea-senate-briefing-tillerson The past 48 hours in Trump's bizarre, ever-changing North Korea policy, explained Updated by Zack Beauchamp@[email protected] Apr 28, 2017, 5:43pm EDT "There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea,” President Donald Trump told Reuters in an interview published on Friday morning. “Absolutely.” It was a frightening capstone to the past two days in Trumpland, which have been dominated by North Korea policy. But happily, there’s less to it than meets the eye: The Trump administration is currently giving every indication that it doesn’t want to use force against North Korea. The issue, though, is that we have no clue what it actually does want to do. On Wednesday, nearly the entire Senate took a bus trip to the White House to be briefed on North Korea policy. In the briefing, top Trump officials told senators that they were planning to use economic sanctions and diplomatic outreach to allies to bring North Korea to heel. But they were apparently incapable of being more specific than that, infuriating many of the senators who attended. One anonymous Democrat described the reaction to Trump’s comments at the briefing as “80 sets of invisible eyes rolling.” On Thursday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told NPR that the US was open to direct negotiations with North Korea — reversing the “no negotiations” stance that he himself had taken a month ago. Then on Friday came Trump’s ominous Reuters interview, which also included a new demand that South Korea pay for the THAAD missile defense system — “the most incredible equipment you've ever seen” — that the US was currently installing there. And then, late on Friday, North Korea conducted a ballistic missile test. It’s not yet clear how the Trump team will respond. So when you put that all together, what do you have? What does the Trump administration’s past two days of frenetic activity on North Korea tell us about its actual policy? “Beats the fuck out of me,” says Joshua Pollack, a North Korea expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. This muddle, according to Pollack and other North Korea experts I spoke to, obscures a fundamental lack of new policy ideas. As far as we can tell, the Trump administration is still pursuing the Obama administration’s approach to North Korea — while trashing it publicly and making aggressive-sounding noises about confronting Pyongyang. Cut through the rough of the past few days, and that one fact shines through like a diamond. Whether this mixture is sustainable — whether the blustery rhetoric will undermine the seemingly measured policy — is very far from clear. “This is mostly still par for the course: lots of rhetorical bluster from the US, but really we are not going to start a war,” David Kang, director of the University of Southern California’s Korean Studies Institute, tells me. What follows, then, is a brief rundown of the key events that have taken place in the past 48 hours — and what they mean for America’s stance on one of the world’s most important national security challenges. Wednesday: the big, important Senate meeting that wasn’t The most anticipated North Korea event of the week was the big Senate briefing, announced back on Monday. A classified briefing of this kind, where the entire Senate is invited to the White House, is unprecedented — which initially led observers to think that the White House was preparing a major announcement about a new policy. That is ... not what happened. According to senators who attended the briefing, it was a whole lot of nothing. Chris Murphy, a Democrat who’s made foreign policy a major priority in his career, told CNN there was “no revelation” about North Korea policy in the briefing. An anonymous Republican said the briefing failed to clarify even the most basic questions (like how the administration plans to deal with North Korea’s work on missiles that could hit the US): Follow Ed O'Keefe ✔ @edatpost GOP senator on N. Korea briefing: Briefing lacked "even straight answers on what the policy is regarding N. Korea and its testing of ICBMs" 2:13 AM - 27 Apr 2017 1,447 1,447 Retweets 1,610 1,610 likes Bob Corker, the Republican chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he wasn’t sure if the meeting was worth his time: Follow Niels Lesniewski @nielslesniewski When I asked Chairman Corker if the North Korea briefing trip to the White House was worthwhile, he told me "I'm not sure" 2:24 AM - 27 Apr 2017 272 272 Retweets 343 343 likes A joint statement from Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, and Director of National Dan Coats released shortly after the briefing explains the senators’ annoyed reactions entirely. The policy described in the statement — “tightening economic sanctions and pursuing diplomatic measures with our allies and regional partners” until North Korea is willing to negotiate away its nuclear program — is essentially identical to the Obama administration’s policy, which it called “strategic patience.” Since the Trump team reportedly was not much more specific than that, the senators felt like their time was wasted. “The Senate briefing [shows that] the US is pursuing strategic patience, but not calling it that,” Kang explains. This is the key insight here: Though the administration is going to great lengths to make it look like it’s taking dramatic action on North Korea, like packing nearly the entire Senate into a bus and bringing them to the White House, the truth is there’s not very much substance to back it up. Thursday: Secretary Tillerson’s incredible about-face Rex Tillerson Chairs UN Security Council Meeting On Nonproliferation Of North Korea (Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images) ***Secretary Tillerson has long sounded like one of the administration’s toughest North Korea hardliners. In mid-March, he said that the US would only negotiate with North Korea after the country gave up its nuclear weapons — and said military action against Pyongyang was “an option.” In an April statement, he said that “the United States has spoken enough about North Korea” and was ready to act, alone if necessary.*** [Emphasis added.] ***All of this appeared to change on Thursday, when Tillerson sat down for a wide-ranging interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep. In the interview, Tillerson endorsed “direct” negotiations with North Korea, with the aim of getting them to give up their nuclear weapons. Denuclearization was no longer a precondition of talks, it seemed; it was now their endgame.*** [Emphasis added.] “A denuclearized Korean Peninsula,” Tillerson told Inskeep, “is our only goal.” Tillerson then once again rejected the Obama administration’s policy — repeating that “the era of strategic patience is over” — while seeming to endorse it when describing his team’s policy: This is an approach that is to put pressure on them through implementation of all the sanctions, as well as other diplomatic pressures, and calling on others to cause them to change their view of what will really allow them to achieve the security that they say they seek. The effect of this is to make America’s overall plan for North Korea hopelessly unclear. Saying you’re rejecting a policy while simultaneously embracing the exact same policy has the effect of confusing allies and opponents alike. “Whether it’s in DC, or Seoul, or Tokyo, or Beijing, or Pyongyang — no one knows who speaks for the administration or what the message is,” said Pollack. Late Thursday night: President Trump said what? To add even more confusion, Reuters published a lengthy interview late Thursday night in which President Trump ominously warned that “major, major conflict” with North Korea was entirely possible. In fairness to the president, if the US were to go to war with North Korea, it really would be devastating. As Alex Ward noted at Vox, the North is pointing thousands of artillery pieces at the South Korean city of Seoul; one war game estimated that North Korea could kill 100,000 people in the city within the first few days of fighting. On the other hand, this is the kind of thing the president personally shouldn’t be casually speculating about. When the president says “there is a chance” of a war between the US and North Korea, it’s hard for most people to know whether he’s saying there’s a chance America is going to start one soon. That is a scary thing for American and South Korean citizens to hear — and who knows how it’ll be seen in Pyongyang (they released a lovely propaganda video on Thursday where they nuke Washington, DC, which you can watch below): Some of Trump’s other comments in the Reuters interview were potentially even more troubling. He laid out a brand new demand — that South Korea pay for the THAAD missile defense system that the US is currently deploying there — in typically blunt terms: On the THAAD system, it's about a billion dollars. I said, “Why are we paying? Why are we paying a billion dollars? We're protecting. Why are we paying a billion dollars?” So I informed South Korea it would be appropriate if they paid. Nobody's going to do that. Why are we paying a billion dollars? It's a billion dollar system. It's phenomenal. It's the most incredible equipment you've ever seen — shoots missiles right out of the sky. And it protects them and I want to protect them. We're going to protect them. But they should pay for that, and they understand that. He also blasted the 2012 US free trade agreement (FTA) with South Korea, calling it “unacceptable ... a horrible deal made by Hillary.” (The bulk of the text was actually negotiated in 2007 by the George W. Bush administration.) He then promised to alter it, saying “we're going to renegotiate that deal, or terminate it." Who knows if these comments represent actual administration policy, given its history of shifting on Korea policy. But the comments come at a critical time: South Korea is holding a presidential election on May 9. The candidate leading the polls, left-winger Moon Jae In, has promised to “review” the terms of the THAAD deal with the US and plans, in general, to pursue a closer relationship with the North. This isn’t the kind of political climate in which Trump’s bluster will be well received. “Why he would go out of his way to antagonize a major US ally, especially 10 days before a critical presidential election in which THAAD and the FTA are critical issues, strikes me as unhelpful to say the least,” Kang tells me. Put all of this together and you get a perfect encapsulation of experts’ broader worries about Trump and North Korea. ***While substantive policies may remain the same as Obama’s, in that Trump is deploying THAAD and not declaring war on North Korea, the mere fact that he’s threatened to do some wild stuff changes the way America is perceived. And in foreign policy, perception can determine reality: There’s a real risk, every time someone in the administration mouths off about Korea, that they end up complicating America’s strategic position on the peninsula without meaning to.*** [Emphasis added.] "It is important for the administration to continue implementing steps the Obama administration had underway,” Laura Rosenberger, the National Security Council’s director for China and Korea from 2012 to 2013, told me earlier this week. "What particularly worries me is the blustery rhetoric we are seeing from administration officials, which seem to be completely divorced from any practical steps or strategy.” II/III. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-exclusive-idUSKBN17U04E Fri Apr 28, 2017 | 1:10pm EDT Exclusive: Trump says 'major, major' conflict with North Korea possible, but seeks diplomacy [Video: Syria, N. Korea test Trump's 'America First' pledge] By Stephen J. Adler, Steve Holland and Jeff Mason | WASHINGTON U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a major conflict with North Korea is possible in the standoff over its nuclear and missile programs, but he would prefer a diplomatic outcome to the dispute. "There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely," Trump told Reuters in an Oval Office interview ahead of his 100th day in office on Saturday. Nonetheless, Trump said he wanted to peacefully resolve a crisis that has bedeviled multiple U.S. presidents, a path that he and his administration are emphasizing by preparing a variety of new economic sanctions while not taking the military option off the table. "We'd love to solve things diplomatically but it's very difficult," he said. REUTERS RECOMMENDS Racism on the rise: Reuters poll How North Korea gets its oil from China In other highlights of the 42-minute interview, Trump was cool to speaking again with Taiwan's president after an earlier telephone call with her angered China. He also said he wants South Korea to pay the cost of the U.S. THAAD anti-missile defense system, which he estimated at $1 billion, and intends to renegotiate or terminate a U.S. free trade pact with South Korea because of a deep trade deficit with Seoul. Asked when he would announce his intention to renegotiate the pact, Trump said: “Very soon. I’m announcing it now.” Trump also said he was considering adding stops to Israel and Saudi Arabia to a Europe trip next month, emphasizing that he wanted to see an Israeli-Palestinian peace. He complained that Saudi Arabia was not paying its fair share for U.S. defense. Asked about the fight against Islamic State, Trump said the militant group had to be defeated. "I have to say, there is an end. And it has to be humiliation," he said, when asked about what the endgame was for defeating Islamist violent extremism. leftright 12/12leftright U.S. President Donald Trump looks out a window of the Oval Office following an interview with Reuters at the White House in Washington, U.S., April 27, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria 1/12leftright 2/12leftright 3/12leftright 4/12leftright 5/12leftright 6/12leftright 7/12leftright 8/12leftright 9/12leftright 10/12leftright 11/12leftright 12/12leftright 1/12 XI 'TRYING VERY HARD' Trump said North Korea was his biggest global challenge. He lavished praise on Chinese President Xi Jinping for Chinese assistance in trying to rein in Pyongyang. The two leaders met in Florida earlier this month. "I believe he is trying very hard. He certainly doesn’t want to see turmoil and death. He doesn’t want to see it. He is a good man. He is a very good man and I got to know him very well. "With that being said, he loves China and he loves the people of China. I know he would like to be able to do something, perhaps it's possible that he can’t," Trump said. Trump spoke just a day after he and his top national security advisers briefed U.S. lawmakers on the North Korean threat and one day before Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will press the United Nations Security Council on sanctions to further isolate Pyongyang over its nuclear and missile programs. The Trump administration on Wednesday declared North Korea "an urgent national security threat and top foreign policy priority." It said it was focusing on economic and diplomatic pressure, including Chinese cooperation in containing its defiant neighbor and ally, and remained open to negotiations. U.S. officials said military strikes remained an option but played down the prospect, though the administration has sent an aircraft carrier and a nuclear-powered submarine to the region in a show of force. Any direct U.S. military action would run the risk of massive North Korean retaliation and huge casualties in Japan and South Korea and among U.S. forces in both countries. 'I HOPE HE'S RATIONAL' Trump, asked if he considered North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to be rational, said he was operating from the assumption that he is rational. He noted that Kim had taken over his country at an early age. "He's 27 years old. His father dies, took over a regime. So say what you want but that is not easy, especially at that age. RELATED COVERAGE VIDEOExclusive: Trump says "major conflict" with N.Korea possible VIDEOTrump's 100 days: a European business view Highlights of Reuters interview with Trump U.N. chief says no communication with North Korea is dangerous China foreign minister : peaceful agreement 'only' right choice on North Korea "I'm not giving him credit or not giving him credit, I'm just saying that's a very hard thing to do. As to whether or not he's rational, I have no opinion on it. I hope he's rational," he said. Trump, sipping a Coke delivered by an aide after the president ordered it by pressing a button on his desk, rebuffed an overture from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who told Reuters a direct phone call with Trump could take place again after their first conversation in early December angered Beijing. China considers neighboring Taiwan to be a renegade province. "My problem is that I have established a very good personal relationship with President Xi," said Trump. "I really feel that he is doing everything in his power to help us with a big situation. So I wouldn’t want to be causing difficulty right now for him. "So I would certainly want to speak to him first." Trump also said he hoped to avoid a potential government shutdown amid a dispute between congressional Republicans and Democrats over a spending deal with a Saturday deadline looming. But he said if a shutdown takes place, it will be the Democrats' fault for trying to add money to the legislation to "bail out Puerto Rico" and other items. He also defended the one-page tax plan he unveiled on Wednesday from criticism that it would increase the U.S. deficit, saying better trade deals and economic growth would offset the costs. "We will do trade deals that are going to make up for a tremendous amount of the deficit. We are going to be doing trade deals that are going to be much better trade deals," Trump said. (Editing by Ross Colvin) III. http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/92042588/us-president-donald-trump-says-north-korea-disrespected-china-with-second-missile-launch-in-a-month US President Donald Trump says North Korea 'disrespected' China with second missile launch in a month Last updated 15:22, April 29 2017 [Video: North Korea unsuccessfully test-fired a ballistic missile on Saturday from a region north of its capital, Pyongyang.] US President Donald Trump says North Korea "disrespected" China with its most recent ballistic missile test. South Korea's military said North Korea fired a missile from an area near the capital of Pyongyang on Saturday. US and South Korean officials said the launch apparently failed. Donald Trump did not speak about the missile launch on his return to the White House. CARLOS BARRIA/REUTERS Donald Trump did not speak about the missile launch on his return to the White House. Trump did not answer reporters' questions about the missile launch upon returning to the White House from a daytrip to Atlanta on Saturday. READ MORE: * Trump: 'Major, major conflict' with North Korea possible * White House briefs senators on 'very grave' NK threat * Life-changing trip to one of the most secretive nations * Is NZ safe from North Korea's threat of nuclear war? * Mystery burger is sole menu item on NK airline But he commented on Twitter, saying, "North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad!" North Korea has been ramping up its missile tests recently. KCNA North Korea has been ramping up its missile tests recently. Follow Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad! 4:56 AM - 29 Apr 2017 15,236 15,236 Retweets 49,348 49,348 likes Japan's government spokesman said the missile was believed to have travelled about 50 kilometres and fallen on an inland part of the country. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un has been escalating tensions in the area. KCNA North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un has been escalating tensions in the area. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said the ballistic missile was fired to the northeast around 5.30am from an area in the vicinity of Pukchang, north of Pyongyang, the capital. The launch marked the 75th missile test of Kim Jong Un's tenure and underscores both Kim's determination to make technical progress on his weapons programs and his defiance amid international pressure. The launch coincides with renewed diplomatic and military pressure on North Korea from the Trump administration. A US Navy strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, will be in the waters around the Korean Peninsula this weekend, and one of the Navy's largest submarines has been in port in South Korea this week. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has called for new economic sanctions on North Korea and other "painful" measures over its nuclear weapons program. "Failing to act now on the most pressing security issue in the world may bring catastrophic consequences," Tillerson said during a special session of the UN Security Council. "The more we bide our time, the sooner we will run out of it." US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has warned of "catastrophic consequences". LUCAS JACKSON/REUTERS US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has warned of "catastrophic consequences". North Korea's previous missile launch was on April 16, the day after huge military parade in Pyongyang to celebrate the anniversary of the birth of founder Kim Il Sung. It blew up almost immediately, US Pacific Command said, complicating efforts to identify the missile's size and range. At that parade, North Korea presented two of its newest model missiles, including the submarine-launched ballistic type it successfully fired last year and the land-based version it launched last month. - Agencies -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
