[Ms Le Pen’s best hope of winning is for a large slice of the electorate to abstain. Her offensive is aimed at fanning hostility to Mr Macron among left-wing supporters to encourage them to sit out the election. A “neither-nor” movement has emerged among voters of Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leftist who attracted nearly 20 per cent cent of votes in the first round. They are demonstrating under the anti-nationalist, anti-capitalist slogan “Ni patrie, ni patron” — neither motherland nor boss.
(A Marine Le Pen victory still looks unlikely. The poll is on the coming Sunday - less than a week away. But then, Brexit and Trump did win despite considerable odds. - Sukla)] http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/french-presidential-election-voter-apathy-may-hand-marine-le-pen-victory/news-story/1a030c576598f82c4d8f3c108318e1de French presidential election: Voter apathy may hand Marine Le Pen victory [Video: French Election: Who Is Marine Le Pen?] CHARLES BREMNER The Times1:27PM May 1, 2017 In the final dash before Sunday’s presidential runoff, Marine Le Pen has mounted a double offensive in an attempt to close the gap of up to 20 points that separate her from Emmanuel Macron. She has allied herself with Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, a nationalist Gaullist, and softened her pledges to take France out of the euro. That is aimed at bringing in middle-class right-wing voters who like the National Front’s “France-first” line but are turned off by its toxic aura. At the same time, Ms Le Pen has mounted an all-out campaign to paint Mr Macron as the stooge of the “France-hating” liberal elite that she deems the enemy of the people. ***Ms Le Pen’s best hope of winning is for a large slice of the electorate to abstain. Her offensive is aimed at fanning hostility to Mr Macron among left-wing supporters to encourage them to sit out the election. A “neither-nor” movement has emerged among voters of Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leftist who attracted nearly 20 per cent cent of votes in the first round. They are demonstrating under the anti-nationalist, anti-capitalist slogan “Ni patrie, ni patron” — neither motherland nor boss.*** [Emphasis added.] Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, left, and Marine Le Pen. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, left, and Marine Le Pen. A poll by Odoxa on Friday showed that 40 per cent of Mr Melenchon’s supporters would back Mr Macron, 41 per cent would abstain and 19 per cent — up from 12 per cent five days earlier — would vote for Ms Le Pen. Her voters are motivated, while many who say that they will back Mr Macron are not so committed. The “republican” reflex, in which voters back the alternative to the Front candidate, is not operating as it has in past elections. Despite the wide gap in voting intentions, Ms Le Pen could win if a record number of voters stayed away from the polls. A model for a Le Pen victory has been devised by Serge Galam, a physicist and political scientist, who has calculated the level of abstentions needed for her to land in the Elysee Palace. Starting with the 58-42 per cent split in voting intentions, Ms Le Pen could win if 90 per cent of her supporters turned out but only 65 per cent of Mr Macron backers fulfilled their intention to vote, Mr Galam has calculated. Overall turnout in the first round last week was 78 per cent. No candidate in the nine previous presidential elections of the modern French republic has come from so far behind in voting intentions to win. Second-place candidates have leap-frogged first-round winners three times, but always because they picked up votes that had gone to important rivals in their own camp the first time. Ms Le Pen is not in that position, apart from the small number of votes for Mr Dupont-Aignon that may come her way. For her to win, turnout would have to drop below the record low 69 per cent in 1969 when Georges Pompidou, the centre-right prime minister of President de Gaulle, won. The Times -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
