[The latest Washington parlour game is trying to determine whether or
not special counsel Robert Mueller is currently investigating Donald
Trump for obstruction of justice in the Russia election meddling
inquiry.
Mr Trump's lawyers have denied it. The president himself seemed to
confirm it. Mr Mueller isn't talking. All this speculation misses the
bigger question, however. What happens if Mr Mueller not only is
looking into possible criminal misdeeds by the president, but he ends
up finding them?
Such a prospect opens a legal Pandora's box - but it's one Mr Mueller
should probably be pondering. Here are some possible what-next
scenarios if that smoking gun (or guns) turns up.]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40283081

If Trump obstructed justice, what next?

The latest Washington parlour game is trying to determine whether or
not special counsel Robert Mueller is currently investigating Donald
Trump for obstruction of justice in the Russia election meddling
inquiry.

Mr Trump's lawyers have denied it. The president himself seemed to
confirm it. Mr Mueller isn't talking. All this speculation misses the
bigger question, however. What happens if Mr Mueller not only is
looking into possible criminal misdeeds by the president, but he ends
up finding them?

Such a prospect opens a legal Pandora's box - but it's one Mr Mueller
should probably be pondering. Here are some possible what-next
scenarios if that smoking gun (or guns) turns up.

A report to Congress

The traditional means of addressing presidential criminality - if
"traditional" is the right word, given that it's a path explored only
three times in US history - is through impeachment proceedings in the
House of Representatives followed by trial in the US Senate.

Impeachment requires a simple majority vote, while it takes a
two-thirds majority in the Senate to approve removal. It is, as is
frequently noted, a political act first and foremost, where the
grounds for action are essentially whatever Congress decides.

If this is the course Mr Mueller pursues, his investigation into the
president may end with a report to the Justice Department, which could
then be passed along to leaders in Congress. There's no legal
requirement for it ever to be made public, although the pressure on
politicians to do so will be enormous.

That process would track the course set by Ken Starr when looking into
possible misdeeds by President Bill Clinton in 1998. In that instance
the independent counsel concluded that the then-president may have
engaged in criminal behaviour. He provided his supporting evidence to
Congress to do with as it saw fit.They impeached, but there were not
enough votes to convict in the Senate.

Indictment and trial

What Mr Starr decided not to do with his investigation was seek a
criminal indictment of the president. But while conventional wisdom is
that this option is foreclosed, there are some differing views in the
legal community. While the constitution is clear about impeachment
proceedings, it's silent on the subject of bringing criminal charges
against a sitting president.

"It is an open and substantial question whether an incumbent president
is subject to indictment," Watergate special prosecutor Leon Jaworski
told Supreme Court justices when they were considering whether to
grant a subpoena for President Richard Nixon's Oval Office tape
recordings.

Mr Nixon resigned before he was impeached and was subsequently
pardoned by President Gerald Ford, but the special prosecutor had
named him an "unindicted co-conspirator" in its case against several
of the president's aides.

Those who think a presidential indictment is impossible tend to point
to the impracticality of indicting someone who has the legal authority
to pardon himself, as well as a passage in the constitution that
states removal from office through impeachment doesn't preclude
criminal charges.

That suggests, they say, the founding fathers envisioned any criminal
proceedings should only take place after a president is out of power.

Richard Nixon speaks at the White House shortly after his
resignation.Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption
Richard Nixon was named as an "unindicted co-conspirator" by the
Watergate special prosecutor

Giving the judiciary the ability to sanction a sitting president also
could implicate the constitutionally crafted separation of powers
between the three divisions of US government - the executive, the
legislative and the judicial. Judges are in the branch the least
accountable to US voters, the argument goes, which is why the founding
fathers put the power of removal in the hands of Congress, with
members who have an electoral mandate.

Susan Bloch, a constitutional law professor at Georgetown University
who has studied the legality of presidential indictments, says the
prospect of a president standing trial and then possibly being
sentenced to jail while still technically in office is "ludicrous".

"You should not be subjecting a president to a criminal procedure
while he's president," she says. "The text [of the Constitution]
suggests it, but I think the practical considerations to me say you
don't want to make a president worry about a criminal proceeding."

While the US Supreme Court held that a sitting president could be
subjected to a civil trial in Jones v Clinton - the sexual harassment
case brought by against President Clinton that eventually led to his
impeachment - the penalties in such cases are monetary, not possible
jail time.

Independent Counsel Ken Starr stands after testifying during Bill
Clinton impeachment hearings.Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption
Independent Counsel Ken Starr turned over evidence of Bill Clinton's
possible criminal misdeeds to Congress

Bloch adds that the Supreme Court underestimated just how damaging
even a civil proceeding could be to a presidency. During Mr Clinton's
subsequent impeachment, the nation's business ground to a halt. A
presidential criminal trial would be orders of magnitude more
disruptive.

When dismissing the legality of a presidential indictment during a
recent television interview, one of Mr Trump's personal lawyers, Jay
Sekulow, also cited Justice Department policy guidelines dating back
to the Watergate scandal.

"The indictment or criminal prosecution of a sitting president would
be unconstitutional because it would interfere with the president's
ability to carry out his constitutionally assigned functions and thus
would be inconsistent with the constitutional structure," read the
report from the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel.

Mr Mueller, as a Justice Department employee, may be bound by these
guidelines, which would end the debate over indictment before it
really begins.

Robert Mueller during a panel discussion.Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image caption

Special counsel Robert Mueller may have to abide by Justice Department
guidelines protecting presidents from criminal charges

Supporters of leaving a president subject to criminal charges counter
that the case for temporary presidential immunity is based on a
subjective interpretation of constitutional provisions. If the
founding fathers had wanted presidents to be effectively above the law
until they left office, they would have explicitly said so.

They also have their own practical arguments in favour of immediate
criminal proceedings. Deferring prosecution until after a president
leaves office, for instance, could make the task more difficult.
Evidence could be lost or destroyed, and witnesses could die or forget
important details.

Professor Eric Freedman, in a 1999 Hofstra Law Review article, notes
that other administration officials - including the vice-president -
have been subject to indictment while in office. Some federal judges
have been tried and sent to prison prior to removal by Congress.

"Reading the Constitution to insulate an incumbent president from
criminal liability would not only feed the imperial delusions to which
too many high officials in this century have succumbed, but would
undermine the fundamental concept of the president as an ordinary
citizen temporarily exercising power delegated by 'we the people'," he
writes.

An indictment on hold

A third possible resolution was floated in that Office of Legal
Counsel memo, although the Justice Department ultimately rejected it.
Could a grand jury issue a presidential indictment, then put the trial
on hold until after the chief executive leaves office?

That would certainly avoid the spectacle of a sitting president in the
criminal dock, but it would allow the wheels of justice to begin
turning. The Justice Department's view, however, was that the
resulting political cloud would surely be toxic.

Given "the realities of modern politics and mass media, and the
delicacy of the political relationships which surround the presidency
both foreign and domestic," the Justice Department wrote in its 1973
report, there would "be a Russian roulette aspect to the course of
indicting the president but postponing trial, hoping in the meantime
that the power to govern could survive".

Even someone as apparently bulletproof as Mr Trump would be
hard-pressed to survive such a spectacle.

It wouldn't take long for Mr Trump's opponents, for instance, to dust
off old quotes from the Republican's presidential campaign in which he
warned of the dire prospects of Hillary Clinton assuming the
presidency while the target of a criminal probe.

They would certainly appreciate the irony, bitter though it may be.

Anthony Zurcher
North America reporter

20 June 2017




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