I/II. http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/caste-of-characters-gujarat-politics-assembly-elections-caste-politics-2017-4983228/
Caste of characters In Gujarat, religious polarisation remains a dominant theme. And caste is back, in a different version Written by Christophe Jaffrelot , Gilles Verniers | Updated: December 15, 2017 7:59 am Certainly, religious polarisation remains the order of the day, as seen from the minuscule number of Muslim candidates After decades, Gujarat is back to caste politics. In the 1980s, it was the first state to see violent protests against caste-based reservations after Madhavsinh Solanki introduced new quotas, first for Dalits and then OBCs. >From the 1990s onwards, the rise of Hindutva politics blurred caste identities, and in the 2000s, communal polarisation further accentuated this process. In the early 2010s, a class-based sense of belongingness asserted itself at the expense of caste, evident from the way Narendra Modi promoted the notion of the “neo-middle class” in the 2012 election campaign. This idea, which referred to the emergence of a new, aspirational category has disappeared from the BJP discourse — much like the correlative concept of the “Gujarat model”. Certainly, religious polarisation remains the order of the day, as seen from the minuscule number of Muslim candidates: As in 2007 and 2012, the BJP has not nominated any in 2017, while the Congress has given tickets to only six Muslims (out of 182 candidates) — the same number as in 2007 and down one from 2012, when it had nominated seven Muslim candidates. But caste politics is back, although not necessarily in the sense one would expect. While the equation that Hardik Patel has developed with the Congress suggests that the grand old party is aligning itself with the largest dominant caste of Gujarat, the BJP has nominated more candidates from this community: Twenty-eight per cent against 24 per cent on the list of the Congress, which has nominated just a few more Patel candidates in 2017 than in 2012 (43 against 39). The BJP has distributed four less tickets to Patel candidates compared to 2012, cutting down the distribution of tickets to Patel candidates by half in South Gujarat. The Congress is not playing the Patel card as much as the election campaign and media coverage would suggest. It remains more generous to OBCs, to whom it has given 38.5 per cent of its tickets — almost twice the number in 2012. The Congress is promoting OBC representation at the expense of the upper castes, which represent only 10 per cent of its candidates, against 25 per cent in 2012. The BJP is also chasing the OBC vote, although to a lesser extent than the Congress. The latter’s number of OBC candidates has increased from 20 per cent to 30 per cent. Three castes make up for 70 per cent of the tickets distributed to OBCs: Kolis, Kshatriyas and Thakores. The BJP has favoured the first two groups more (respectively 10 per cent and 7 per cent of its candidates) while the Congress has given more space to Thakores than its rival (respectively 11.5 per cent, 7 per cent and 7 per cent of its candidates). For both parties, 61 per cent of these OBC candidates are running in rural constituencies. Ironically, observers focus on urban or semi-urban Patels when the two parties clearly consider rural OBCs as key targets. The October Lokniti-CSDS survey showed that, while both parties were credited with 43 per cent of the valid votes, the BJP came first among upper castes and Kolis, whereas the Congress was ahead of the BJP among Patels, Kshatriyas, Dalits, Adivasis and Muslims. This medley of castes looks like a remake of the KHAM coalition of the 1980s, plus some Patels. Indeed, caste politics is not obliterating other variables for good, or completely: Class continues to play a role. If the “neo-middle class” seems to be an idea of the past, the urban/rural divide remains salient, particularly in the context of the agrarian crisis: While 41 per cent of non-farmers may vote for the BJP according to the Lokniti-CSDS survey, 51 per cent of the farmers intend to do so. A close look at both parties’ candidates reveals other aspects of electoral politics in Gujarat. First, the phenomenon of turncoats persists, but only to the benefit of the BJP, which is fielding 11 incumbent Congress MLAs. Congress turncoats include the two sitting MLAs from Somnath and Godhra, Jashabhai Barad and C.K. Raulji. The discontent that is reported to have swept across the state against the BJP does not seem to have extended to its own representatives. Second, the BJP has retained most of its sitting MLAs, while the Congress is fielding more fresh faces. This is a reversal of sorts as the BJP is traditionally more inclined to discard incumbent MLAs — usually half — to avoid local anti-incumbency and maintain discipline within its ranks. This time, as in 2012, it has retained 68 per cent of its MLAs (79 tickets). The Congress, on the other hand, has either discarded or lost half of its 61 MLAs, mainly as a result of changing caste equations. This situation bears two risks for the Congress. First, it is fielding many inexperienced candidates little known to the public. Out of 181 candidates — including its ally, the BTP — 121 are contesting for the first time, against 76 for the BJP. Most of these new candidates were selected at the last moment, which has given them scant time to campaign. The second risk is having many disgruntled sitting MLAs re-running on different tickets. In 2007 and 2012, 15 sitting Congress MLAs ran either on different party tickets, or as independents. These candidates cut into the Congress’ local vote base and in 2012 potentially cost the party as many as 10 seats. Finally, both the Congress and BJP have fielded fewer women candidates, compared to previous years: 21 in all — 9 for the Congress and 12 for the BJP — against 36 and 33 in 2007 and 2012. In times of uncertainty, parties tend to be more risk-averse when it comes to distributing tickets to women contenders, as they are perceived to be less effective than their male counterparts. The caste analysis of candidates bears no predictive value as far as the outcome is concerned, but it enables us to understand how parties read the electorate. It reveals the kind of signals they seek to send to voters. Both the Congress and BJP have adapted their strategies to a new reading of politics in Gujarat. As a result, the differences between the two parties in terms of electoral strategy are more flimsy than in previous elections. If, locally, the candidates appear as relatively undifferentiated, it puts the accent of the election even more on the battle of leadership, that is, between the PM contesting in his home state and the newly elected Congress president, who may be seen as an outsider. Jaffrelot is senior research fellow at CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS, Paris and professor of Indian Politics and Sociology at King’s India Institute, London. Verniers is assistant professor of Political Science, Ashoka University II. https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/modi-shah-will-not-lose-gujarat-for-another-decade-is-my-bet-1784064 Modi-Shah Will Not Lose Gujarat For Another Decade Is My Bet Published: December 06, 2017 07:00 IST If elections are about perception, then the BJP won Gujarat even before Rahul Gandhi launched his extensive campaign in the state. In the last few months, much has been made about his aggressive campaigning in the state. About the Patidars and Hardik Patel's electoral speeches. About GST and the impact it has on the traders in Surat and in the business community. Commentators sitting in Delhi talk about Modi-Shah getting the jitters over the prospect of losing Gujarat. Much of it could be true if Gujarat were just any other state in the country, its political history not as deeply polarised and vulnerable as that witnessed over the last two decades. I have reported from Gujarat for over a decade, written a book on it, tried to understand the psyche of those who ruled the state from its ministers, bureaucrats to the Gujarati on the street. As I write this, one major opinion poll has predicted a neck-and-neck fight. I do not agree, but yes, the Indian electorate is an unpredictable entity. In the meantime, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has helped us explain why the BJP will lead in Gujarat. He made a statement yesterday: "BJP has always been seen as a pro-Hindutva party, so if an original is available, why one would prefer a clone?" narendra modi As the Gujarat CM, Modi successfully sold the idea of putting Gujarat on the world map with the much-hyped Vibrant Gujarat. Neither Arun Jaitley nor any of his party leaders including the Prime Minister have displayed any ambiguity over their Hindutva credentials specially in Gujarat. It is a state where the former CM and now PM has made the most polarising statements, drawing massive support from the crowd. In 2007, the election that followed the 2002 Gujarat carnage, Modi was to talk of development. He began his election campaign with a speech (where I was present) asking the crowd "Sohrabuddin, What would you want me to do with a man like him?" The audience responded in unison, "Kill him". Modi was playing to the gallery then, he is playing to the gallery today. This year, Modi brings in "Aurangzeb" as the election closes in, his colleague from Uttar Pradesh has been providing flawed narratives on the Taj Mahal. Sitting in Delhi, some of us may outrage over the brazen bigotry but back in Gujarat, the sentiment has been explicitly conveyed, just like the crafty slogans in 2014 that referred to the Congress as the "Delhi sultanate". Another news report this morning talks of the BJP using posters in Gujarat hardly concealing its agenda. The poster has two warring factions; HAJ (Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh) and RAM (Rupani, Amit Shah and Modi). This does not need an explainer. For the Gujarati who has been voting for the BJP, or rather Modi, he is the man who emblazoned Gujarati Asmita by giving Gujarat not just the Prime Minister but also the BJP president. A couple of months ago, I spoke to a diamond trader on a dharna in Surat against the GST. He was upset with the Modi regime for hitting at his livelihood. So your anger will reflect in the upcoming poll, I asked. "Na ben, jaruvat pade toh ghar bhej denge usko election jitaane ke liye" ( If need be, we will sell our belongings to help him win). To the aspirational Gujarati, Modi may not have offered much since he took over as the Prime Minister. But as the CM, he successfully sold the idea of putting Gujarat on the world map with the much-hyped Vibrant Gujarat summit seeking investments and hosting global investors. A week-long PR affair worked well for the Gujarati who took pride in being the most advanced state in the country. That most of the MoUs signed at the summit never materialised was another story. But Modi had sold the global dream to the Gujarati youth much like the Madison Square song and dance he sold to the youth across the country. pm modi amit shah The Modi-Amit Shah duo have single-handedly changed the narrative of Gujarat and Delhi. Critics may mock him, create memes on social media about GST being reduced on khakhra ahead of the election, but all this only reinforces Gujarati faith in their man in Delhi. Congress (nearly) President Rahul Gandhi has rightly said that Modi markets himself well. But the truth is Modi was provided with the marketplace wide open, ceded by a lack luster, uninspiring Congress leadership in both Gujarat and in Delhi. And then Hardik Patel. Yes, he is a much-needed dissenting voice after a long time in the history of Gujarat and Patidar politics. The resentment of the Patidars found a voice in the 24-year-old, but his potential impact on the Gujarat election may have been blunted by the perception created about him. An alleged sex CD and a video of his alleged secret meeting in a hotel with Rahul Gandhi him being seen as the man who betrayed Gujarat and the Patidar cause for personal gains. Remember Sanjay Joshi, one of Modi's staunch rivals from the RSS in Gujarat? A sex CD later, Joshi has been unable to re-launch himself within the party or the Sangh. Hardik may still draw crowds but the Modi-Shah duo has stymied his popularity. As for the Congress, six months of hard-core campaigning by Rahul Gandhi will not be enough to undo the perception its leaders have created about the party in the state. The Congress has been comatose for the last 15 years with no semblance of leadership. A last-minute dash of rallies and Hindutva which involves Rahul Gandhi visiting every possible temple in the state with the declaration that he is a janeu-dhari Brahmin may well be counter-productive. Modi at 67 has at least another 10 years in active politics, perhaps more. Till such time, Gujarat will be a battle of prestige, the backbone of his success and survival in Delhi. The Modi-Amit Shah duo, who have single-handedly changed the narrative of Gujarat and Delhi, will not let the state slip away so easy. Not for another decade. (Rana Ayyub is an award-winning investigative journalist and political writer. She is the author of 'Gujarat Files', a book on the politics of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah in Gujarat.) -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
