I/III. AA. In the previous poll, in 2012, The BJP had won 115 seats (47.9% vote share). The Gujarat Parivartan Party, led by Keshubhai Patel,which would later merge with the BJP had won 2 seats (3.6% vote share). So, the combined vote share of the BJP and the GPP was 51.5%.
The Congress had won 61 seats (38.9%) (Ref.: < https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gujarat_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2012> and < http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/in-gujarat-cong-closing-vote-share-gap-with-bjp/1048825/ >.) The current position was: BJP 121 MLAs and Congress 43 MLAs. (Ref.: < http://indianexpress.com/elections/gujarat-assembly-elections-2017/gujarat-assembly-elections-results-bjp-congress-rahul-gandhi-narendra-modi-hardik-patel-4987417/ >.) In the current poll, the BJP has polled 49.1% of votes cast. This is 2.4% point lower than the vote share of the BJP and the GPP combined in 2012 poll. (This *does not* take into account the subsequent accretion in number.) The Congress has polled 41.4% of cast votes. This is 2.5% point higher than what it had polled in 2012. (It does not take into account (i) the subsequent substantial loss in number - from 61 to 43, and (ii) independent - Jignesh Mevani, and 2 BTP candidates backed by the Congress have won.) Final position (ref.: <http://eciresults.nic.in/>) is: BJP: 99 (22 down from 121, and 16 down from 115) Congress: 77 (34 up from 43, 16 up from 61) BB. Party Contesting In So far Results In 2012 Change (2012) In 2014 Change (2014) CONG+ 182 182 80 61 19 17 63 CONG 177 182 77 61 +16 17 +60 BTP 6 182 2 0 +2 0 +2 INDC 1 182 1 0 +1 0 +1 BJP 182 182 99 115 -16 165 -6 (Vaghela and his cabal left the Congress much after the last parliamentary poll.) II/III. Pratik Sinha 10 hrs · Results are along expected lines, final tally will be in favour of BJP with BJP in the 105 range and Congress winning around 70 seats. Few observations [that's obviously before the final results came in]: 1) This is an election where BJP was made to fight. This is not just about using political firepower but unlike other elections, channels like Times Now, Republic TV and ZEE had to become an extension of BJP without not even a shred of neutrality in their coverage. Local Gujarati media also became increasingly partisan as elections progressed. The Parliament session was delayed, all the resources were diverted towards Gujarat. EC even delayed Gujarat elections and their excuse for the delay was very flimsy. The delay helped BJP to partly tide over the GST anger by reducing tax slabs for certain items. 2) The Prime Minister in the last week showed he can go down to any level to ensure a win in an election, morality or the position that he holds doesn't matter. The tougher it gets, the more poisonous his speeches will become. This is a trend that will be seen again because 2019 is not going to be a cake walk. [He had also essentially threatened that in case of the Congress win the Union Government will hold back funds for the state.] 3) In the last week of campaigning, PM did everything from raking up Ram Mandir to stating that Pakistan wants Ahmed Patel as the CM to accusing Manmohan Singh of treason. Basically he came down to what he knows has won him elections in the past - Hindu-Muslim communal polarization. It was the lowest form of gutter politics. [Both the houses of the Parliament stood adjourned today on account of the Opposition's demand for an apology from the PM for hurling a false and malicious charge of treason against his predecessor.] 4) 2014 Lok Sabha elections got BJP all 26 seats in Gujarat. If Modi and BJP fail to deliver some goodies in the next year and a half, 2019 will be a much reduced tally. MP and Rajasthan are two other states which will be watched closely. BJP won all the seats in Rajasthan in 2014 while winning 26 out of 29 in MP. For BJP to get anywhere close to their present tally of 282, BJP will have have to repeat their performance in these state which seems highly unlikely. 5) The obsession over EVM is becoming ridiculous now. Can EVM be hacked? Yes. But so can your phone, computer or any other electronic equipment with software in it. The question is not whether it can be hacked or not, question is whether it has been hacked or not. There's a huge difference. If you disconnect your laptop from internet and never put a pen drive in it ever, there is hardly any chance of your laptop getting a virus. Same stands for EVM. At this point in time, there is hardly any evidence to backup the claim that EVM's have been tampered. Similarly, it was funny to see people lose their marbles over malfunctioning EVMS. In the first phase of Gujarat elections, over 24000 EVMs were used and out of that around 400 of them malfunctioned. That's a very small percentage. Moreover, these malfunctioning EVMs were replaced by functional ones. Again, remember how your phone, computer, TV malfunctions? EVM is also one such electronic equipment which can malfunction. 6) As pointed out by Nirjhari Sinha, senior Gujarat Congress leaders like Arjun Modhwadia, Shaktisinh Gohil, Siddharth Patel have lost elections despite Congress gaining ground in Gujarat. At the same time, young leaders like Jignesh Mevani who came out on the street have won by comfortable majority. It shows that people trust leaders who are willing to come out on the street and raise their issues. While Gujarat was drowning in floods, Congress chose to fly its MLAs to a Bangalore resort so that Ahmed Patel could win his Rajya Sabha seat. Instead of standing with people of Gujarat during a time of crisis, they were lounging in a resort. Which is why Gujarat needs more Jignesh Mevanis to challenge the right-wing. III. AA. 'Are Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) Tamper-Proof?' at < https://www.thequint.com/explainers/electronic-voting-machines-tamper-proof-election-commission-refutes-kejriwal-mayawati-allegations-evm-fraud >. BB. 'Manufacturer of India’s EVMs says its products can be hacked' at < http://www.jantakareporter.com/india/manufacturer-indias-evms-says-can-hacked/164838/ >. [A mandatory (statistically random) 10% cross-check of the EVM scores with that of the corresponding VVPAT machines must be done in order to allay doubts and add an additional layer of safety. Massive public campaign needs be waged.] -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. 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