[In course of the Gujarat campaign, regardless of the eventual outcome, Rahul has, apparently, been able to shake off his "Pappu" tag. (Never mind the social media trolls.)
The fact that the Congress has been able to raise its number of MLAs from a rather paltry 43, at the time of going to the poll, to a fairly respectable 77, with its two allies winning another 3, have been carefully kept under wraps by the mainstream media. Apart from the inflow of individula MLAs from the Congress, the Gujarat Parivartan Party, led by Keshubhai Patel, which had polled 3.6% of the votes in the last assembly poll, had also merged with the BJP subsequently. That fact also remains missing. Interestingly, the Sensex had plunged over 800 points yesterday morning. At the day-end closed with 139 points gain. So, the "confidence" has got to be reinforced, and definitely not undermined. Today, btw, it has risen by another 235 points. Today's Indian Express, Mumbai edition, carries a banner headline on its front page: 'Modi's December Spring'. Hell with facts! And, interestingly, the Express was, of late, more critical of the Modi regime. Just not as compared to the ToI. Never mind. At the national level, whether one loves it or hates it, the Congress has got to occupy the pole position in an anti-BJP mobilisation, if at all. But it has got to be a collage of varied state-level alliances. And, the Congress may not even figure in many of these. Rahul has to shoulder the responsibility of facilitating the emergence of such a collage, with an overarching theme. It's rather unfortunate that the other opposition parties didn't today join the Congress, in the two houses of the Parliament in its demand for an apology from the Prime Minister for maliciously hurling the charge of treason at his predecessor on the basis of a fanciful story. It's too serious an issue having utterly ominous implications to be treated as a party specific one. But it's also a failure on the part of the Congress, and thereby its new President. Reproduced below are two excerpts from the two following comments. I. <<Rahul Gandhi will increasingly be seen as the prime ministerial candidate of a proposed anti-BJP front of Opposition parties. The presence of all the major Opposition parties – the Communist Party of India (Marxist), Rashtriya Janata Dal, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress and the National Conference – at a dinner hosted by Rahul Gandhi over the weekend suggested that these parties have accepted that they will now have to do business with the new Congress president. Rahul Gandhi may have made a mark in Gujarat but he has many more challenges ahead, beginning with next year’s Assembly election in Karnataka, to be followed by polls in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. There is no doubt that encouraged by its improved tally in Gujarat, the Congress will go into the next election with greater vigour and enthusiasm.>> II. <<The Congress’s performance in Gujarat is being seen as creditable for several reasons. One, it is a good showing for a party that has, so far, been unable to pull itself out of the morass it had sunk into in past years. Two, Gujarat was expected to be a cakewalk for the BJP after its landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh earlier this year. Instead, it was the toughest battle the party has fought in the state in 22 years. The Congress’s performance is particularly commendable as it increased its tally by 16 seats from 61 in 2012, and even more so if one takes into account the BJP’s performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in which it won 165 Assembly segments in the state. And to think that the Congress looked in utter shambles when Shankersinh Vaghela left the party and stepped down from the post of Leader of Opposition in the Gujarat Legislative Assembly as recently as July. Finally, this was achieved in the prime minister’s home state despite the fact that Modi himself campaigned extensively.>>] I/II. https://scroll.in/article/861945/rahul-gandhi-has-arrived-the-congress-is-positive-even-in-defeat-in-gujarat ‘Rahul Gandhi has arrived’: The Congress is treating its defeat in Gujarat as a moral victory Congress cadre shed their scepticism after Monday’s verdict, say new party chief has emerged as a leader in his own right. by Anita Katyal Published 5 hours ago ‘Rahul Gandhi has arrived’: The Congress is treating its defeat in Gujarat as a moral victory AFP “It’s true we have lost the elections today but the morale of our workers is not down… I would say it is a respectable loss,” Congress functionary Madhu Goud Yashki said on Monday, summing up the mood in the party after its defeat in the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls. The Congress won 77 seats in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly while the Bharatiya Janata Party retained power with 99 seats. In Himachal Pradesh, the BJP won 44 seats in the the 68-strong House to nudge out the Congress, which managed 20 seats. Unexpectedly, the Gujarat verdict did not lead to the usual rumblings in the Congress about its new president Rahul Gandhi’s capabilities. When the Congress suffered a humiliating defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and then went on to lose a string of state elections, the losses were invariably put down to Rahul Gandhi’s lack of public connect, poor leadership and oratorical skills. But after Monday’s verdict, the usual despondency that descends after every defeat has given way to hope that the new Congress president can lead from the front and that the BJP duo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah are not as invincible as they appeared to be three years ago. ‘Moral victory’ There was a discernible shift in the mood of the Congress rank and file after the Gujarat verdict. Despite the party’s failure to dislodge the BJP government, the cadre were not pessimistic about the future or Rahul Gandhi. While admitting that he still has some way to go, party members said Rahul Gandhi has emerged as a leader in his own right. “Agreed, we did not succeed in uprooting the banyan tree but we have certainly given it a good shake,” Congress general secretary CP Joshi said. “Rahul Gandhi has managed to do that… he has arrived.” Congress leaders pointed to the fact that Rahul Gandhi had fought the battle in Gujarat single-handedly and managed to get under the BJP’s skin. His focused campaign forced the prime minister to address 40 rallies and Shah to camp in Gujarat for over two months in the run-up to the elections, they said. A worried Shah also deployed a battery of Central ministers and chief ministers in the Gujarat campaign, which had promised to be a cakewalk for the BJP till just three months ago but had suddenly heated up with the Congress emerging as a serious challenger. And for a change, the Congress actually came close to beating the BJP. “It is, at best, a technical win for the BJP but the Congress has won a moral victory,” said former Union minister Kishore Chandra Deo. He, too, said Rahul Gandhi had won the day with his dignified campaign, his focus on people-centric issues and his determination to steer clear of the BJP’s communal rhetoric. Needed: Strong leaders, organisation But, at the same time, Monday’s verdict holds important lessons for the Congress. Rahul Gandhi’s inability to breach the BJP fortress means he can only go so far in galvanising the voter – the party must have credible state leaders to supplement the party chief’s campaign and a well-oiled organisation to ensure voters reach the polling booths on poll day. The Congress in Gujarat, like in most states, is handicapped on both fronts. Rahul Gandhi had to turn to the troika of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani – leaders of the Patidar, Other Backward Classes, and Dalit communities – to tap into people’s anger against the BJP government. The party’s own leaders, such as Shaktisinh Gohil, Siddharth Patel and Arjun Modvadia, do not inspire confidence among the voters. All three lost their seats on Monday. Top Opposition leader Another fallout of the Gujarat verdict is that while it has undoubtedly strengthened Rahul Gandhi’s position in the Congress, it has also helped him emerge as the lead occupant of the Opposition space. Till six months ago, Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar was seen as the obvious choice for this position and there was all-round acceptance that Rahul Gandhi did not have it in him to lead the combined Opposition. But Nitish Kumar’s defection to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in July and Rahul Gandhi’s performance in the Gujarat campaign has led the other Opposition parties to look at him in a fresh light. As president of the main Opposition party and with no other contenders, Rahul Gandhi will increasingly be seen as the prime ministerial candidate of a proposed anti-BJP front of Opposition parties. The presence of all the major Opposition parties – the Communist Party of India (Marxist), Rashtriya Janata Dal, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress and the National Conference – at a dinner hosted by Rahul Gandhi over the weekend suggested that these parties have accepted that they will now have to do business with the new Congress president. Rahul Gandhi may have made a mark in Gujarat but he has many more challenges ahead, beginning with next year’s Assembly election in Karnataka, to be followed by polls in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. There is no doubt that encouraged by its improved tally in Gujarat, the Congress will go into the next election with greater vigour and enthusiasm. But it cannot overlook the fact that it is fighting anti-incumbency in the southern state. Besides defending the state government’s record, the Congress will also have to fend off the BJP’s attempts to communalise the election, as it did in Gujarat. II. https://scroll.in/article/861947/death-of-the-tina-factor-will-gujarat-pave-the-way-for-narendra-modi-vs-rahul-gandhi-in-2019 ‘Death of the TINA factor’: Will Gujarat pave the way for Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi in 2019? The focus now shifts to what comes next for the BJP and the Congress in terms of their strategy for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. by Neerja Chowdhury Published 10 hours ago ‘Death of the TINA factor’: Will Gujarat pave the way for Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi in 2019? AFP PHOTO / SAJJAD HUSSAIN With the Gujarat results out, the focus will now shift to what comes next for the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress in terms of their strategy for the 2019 general elections. Though the BJP has managed to retain Gujarat for the sixth time, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal popularity trumping the tide for change, the poll outcome is bound to force the saffron party to course correct, no matter what its rhetoric in public. This is because while the Congress may have not won, its tally of 77 seats – by which it has limited the BJP to under-100 seats – indicates that it is showing signs of revival. This can hardly give the BJP cause for comfort. The Congress’s performance in Gujarat is being seen as creditable for several reasons. One, it is a good showing for a party that has, so far, been unable to pull itself out of the morass it had sunk into in past years. Two, Gujarat was expected to be a cakewalk for the BJP after its landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh earlier this year. Instead, it was the toughest battle the party has fought in the state in 22 years. The Congress’s performance is particularly commendable as it increased its tally by 16 seats from 61 in 2012, and even more so if one takes into account the BJP’s performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in which it won 165 Assembly segments in the state. And to think that the Congress looked in utter shambles when Shankersinh Vaghela left the party and stepped down from the post of Leader of Opposition in the Gujarat Legislative Assembly as recently as July. Finally, this was achieved in the prime minister’s home state despite the fact that Modi himself campaigned extensively. The Gujarat results thus seem to have delineated the lead up to Lok Sabha 2019 election into a series of Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi battles. One of the BJP’s allies described the revival of the Congress in Gujarat as the “death of the TINA [There is no alternative] factor”. This is also seen in the fact that this time the Congress leader was taken seriously and people seemed willing to listen to what he had to say. Killer instinct But the BJP already seems to be in damage-control mode. Speaking to party workers after the results were declared, Modi made a pitch for 2019, putting vikas or development back in the spotlight. Rahul Gandhi, as well the trio of Patidar leader Hardik Patel, Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor, had ripped into the Gujarat model of development during the election campaign. Their strategy had resonated with farmers exercised about the slump in the minimum support prices of peanuts and cotton, and was borne out by the good showing of the Congress in the countryside. Modi’s campaign in Gujarat had focused largely on emotional issues, around Gujarati asmita or pride, and he obviously wanted to shift the focus back to farmers and development. Modi’s address on Monday is typical of the killer instinct the prime minister has displayed in the past. In 2012, when he was Gujarat chief minister, within hours of his victory in the Assembly elections, instead of celebrating, Modi made his way to the home of rebel BJP leader Keshubhai Patel, who had floated another party and fought against him. This was aimed at ensuring Patel’s support for Modi’s bid to become the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate in 2014 as well as to secure the support of the Patidar community, to which Patel belongs, in that election. It is this hunger for power that the Congress will have to contend with in the coming months leading upto various Assembly elections, all the way to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Rahul Gandhi with OBC leader Alpesh Thakor. (Photo credit: PTI). Rahul Gandhi with OBC leader Alpesh Thakor. (Photo credit: PTI). Urban-rural divide Urban Gujarat remains solidly with the BJP with even traders upset about the Goods and Services Tax going back to the saffron party in the textile hub of Surat. While the Congress’s challenge remains to win back urban India, the BJP will have to pay special attention to rural areas in Gujarat, which have shown signs of disenchantment with the party. The Congress has scored in these areas, particularly in Saurashtra and Kutch. The Patidar agitation led by Hardik Patel also created the atmosphere for change and helped the Congress increase its tally. The Congress’s 77-seat outcome is also expected to help Rahul Gandhi establish his authority inside the Congress, now that he has taken over as party president from Sonia Gandhi. A part of his woes have stemmed from the old guard’s resistance to his taking over, and doubts about his ability to lead. His acceptance by senior leaders and his ability to make the Congress the “grand old and young” party of India is contingent on the Congress winning elections under his stewardship. An upswing in the Congress’s fortunes in Gujarat may encourage its workers in states that are due for polls. Assembly elections in Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura are only a couple of months away. And these will almost immediately be followed by Karnataka and Mizoram. The three important states that the BJP rules now – Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan – also face anti-incumbency and to win here, the party knows that it will not have the advantages that served it well in Gujarat – Modi’s home state or the emotional appeal of Gujarati asmita. Alliances the way forward? The other message of the Gujarat verdict for the Congress is the inevitability of alliances as the way to go forward. Gandhi was helped by the alliances he forged with Hardik Patel, Thakor and Mevani. While Patel was too young to contest, the other two won their seats. The Congress lost in seven seats where the margin was defeat was less than the votes polled by the Bahujan Samaj Party and Nationalist Congress Party. It will have to forge a united front of Opposition parties to take on the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in 2019. But to be effective, it will have to play the role of a unifier, not of big brother. Finally, even as the BJP has won Gujarat, the inescapable question that comes up is this: does rural Gujarat signify the first stirrings of restlessness against the Modi regime? For the rural poor in Uttar Pradesh had turned to Modi as their saviour after demonetisation in the hope that he would do something dramatic to alleviate their sufferings, as was borne out by the electoral verdict just months after the government invalidated old Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes overnight. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
