[India Today, which, these days, is operating virtually as a campaign arm for the BJP, has offered the most extreme projection, favouring the BJP. That doesn't mean that things, no way, could actually turn out that way. Nevertheless. It's 287 for the BJP and 38 for the Congress.
This is, understandably, (apparently, much less reported) the other extreme: The Neta-NewsX exit poll shows that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win 202 seats (30 per cent decline over 2014), while the Congress is likely to manage 107 seats (140 per cent increase over 2014). It also says that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to draw a blank in Delhi. (Ref.: < https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/neta-newsx-predicts-242-seats-for-nda-164-for-upa/articleshow/69401559.cms >.) Of the better known agencies, ABP-Nielsen has projected 127 for the BJP and 87 for the Congress. The most adverse one, from the BJP point of view. The corresponding figures from the Republic-CVoter are: 236 and 80. At the other end, from the News18-Ipsos: 276 and 46. Ref.: < https://scontent.fbom17-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/60877857_10219399070832632_117076466277023744_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_ht=scontent.fbom17-1.fna&oh=26b4032557a254a153e056c8ff98e0a8&oe=5D5E6E7B >.) As regards the actual track record of the exit polls: 2014: BJP win was much underestimated. 2009: So was UPA win. 2004: NDA win was predicted. UPA formed the government, having emerged the largest group, with outside support. In 1999, the performances of both the BJP and the Congress were overestimated; in 1998, underestimated. (Ref.: < https://scontent.fbom17-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/60914591_10219398545699504_1207501721371148288_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_ht=scontent.fbom17-1.fna&oh=1015cdc480bc9186c304db2e5df48e72&oe=5D676495 >.) I. It's not accurate. II. Till now it has not shown any definite bias. It has erred either way. III. It also misses the magnitude of large swings. *One thing, however, looks fairly certain that despite all uncertainties, as captured by (significantly) divergent predictions and the past track record of such projections, that the BJP would emerge as the single largest party.* In fact, that was never in doubt. Rather, post-Pulwama/Balakot, the issue, for at least some, was whether it'd cross the 300, or even maybe 350, mark. *On top of that, the way the EC has conducted itself, so far - as a "clean chit" dispensing automated gadget to Modi and Shah, is a vital factor.The EVM is, already, very much an issue of controversy (ref.: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJSdyVUG-o4&fbclid=IwAR3egcb5-nQxIDOh9VbErMNkli4dqQghk2Y_CijA5cgS5eAl-g0ux49hMUk <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJSdyVUG-o4&fbclid=IwAR3egcb5-nQxIDOh9VbErMNkli4dqQghk2Y_CijA5cgS5eAl-g0ux49hMUk>>, <https://www.livemint.com/news/india/supreme-court-accepts-review-plea-for-increasing-vvpat-evm-verification-to-50-1556868687849.html <https://www.livemint.com/news/india/supreme-court-accepts-review-plea-for-increasing-vvpat-evm-verification-to-50-1556868687849.html>>, <https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/matching-of-vvpat-slips-with-evms-sc-dismisses-review-plea-of-21-opposition-leaders/article27055970.ece <https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/matching-of-vvpat-slips-with-evms-sc-dismisses-review-plea-of-21-opposition-leaders/article27055970.ece>> and <https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/news/congress-devises-way-to-check-evm-doctoring/articleshow/69404675.cms?fbclid=IwAR3R6kElHO0k2_hWyEI3Sdeq8UXq9Egy9iXIAOn2irUWVggp8iQCN0EjrJ4 <https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/news/congress-devises-way-to-check-evm-doctoring/articleshow/69404675.cms?fbclid=IwAR3R6kElHO0k2_hWyEI3Sdeq8UXq9Egy9iXIAOn2irUWVggp8iQCN0EjrJ4>>).* Also is the role of the media, in aggregate. The present post itself is an exemplar. Even then, now, the issue is how big is going to be the victory margin? *If the BJP is able to form a government - which looks highly likely right now, whether with or without allies, it'd, in all likelihood, go for the very soul of "India", that had been born on August 15th 1947.Not too unlikely that one of the priority moves would be the roll-out of the NRC, nationwide, and, thereby, triggering a near-permanent civil war-like situation - polarising the whole populace.On the way to its final destination.If, alternately, the Opposition forms a mutually bickering government without a positive agenda, the BJP would be back, sooner rather than later.The prospect looks deeply disturbing.* <<Many webpages, displaying detailed data for Axis My India Exit polls, were taken down on Monday, May 20, after several glaring errors were pointed out in their poll data. The webpages displayed a “Not Found” message, saying that the requested URL was not found on this server. “Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request,” said the website implying that the pages were taken down.>> (Excerpted from below.)] https://newscentral24x7.com/axis-my-india-india-today-axis-exit-poll-website-data-taken-down/?fbclid=IwAR11ZOxPDLIU9BKU43IFrFuXJVQowGq346EfD2HC0PrVNLtMRMP4OugSn9c Axis My India Takes Down Seats & Vote Share Predictions After Multiple Errors Reported in India Today-Axis Exit Poll The option to access detailed data for each state is no longer available. By NewsCentral Staff On May 20, 2019 Last updated May 20, 2019 Many webpages, displaying detailed data for Axis My India Exit polls, were taken down on Monday, May 20, after several glaring errors were pointed out in their poll data. The webpages displayed a “Not Found” message, saying that the requested URL was not found on this server. “Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request,” said the website implying that the pages were taken down. The main website displaying the predicted party-wise division of seat share is still accessible, but the option to access detailed data for each state is not there anymore. The exit poll had incorrectly named all of the five constituencies in Uttarakhand as — Sadulshahar, Ganganagar, Karanpur, Suratgarh and Raisingh Nagar. Also Read: India Today-Axis Exit Poll Gets Names of Uttarakhand Lok Sabha Constituencies Wrong But Predicts BJP Winning Them All They predicted that the Congress party would win the Chennai Central seat, despite the fact that the Congress did not even contest the seat. Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leader Dayanidhi Maran is the alliance candidate against Paattali Makkal Katchi’s Sam Paul in Chennai Central. Further, the India Today-Axis Exit Poll changed its prediction for the Sikkim Lok Sabha seat. First, the pollster gave the Sikkim seat to the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF). However, it was predicted that SDF would get 44 per cent of the votes, while Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) was predicted to get 46 per cent votes. Later in the day, the vote share for the Sikkim seat was deleted from the Axis My India website. Moreover, a disclaimer was put underlining that the margin between two parties — SKM and SKF (which is probably a typographical error for SDF) — is less and that the former has the edge over the latter. The company boasts on its website that “it is one of India’s leading innovative media houses,” with a presence in mass media advertising, marketing solutions, printing technology, market research & survey and on-ground rural activations. The website also proudly proclaims on its banner at the top: “21 years delivering trust.” -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. To view this discussion on the web, visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/greenyouth/CACEsOZgUVfP_YSL1hOGjnXYvAbd0WikEsS7kDgrTen7EAUkEpw%40mail.gmail.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
