[The last time, the BJP, as an opposition party, had polled 31.34%. It may not be too irrational to assume that, by that time, it had accrued a rather stable support base of at least around 20% - 2/3rd of its total votes polled. In 2009, it had polled 22.16%, in 2004 - 22.16%, in 1999 - 23.75% and 1998 - 25.59%%. While the collapse of the "Acche Din" should have had seen significant erosion in the floating votes gathered last time, Pulwama-Balakot or rather the narrative built around it - "Ghar Me Ghus Ke Marunga", aided by a conniving EC and amplified by the obliging media - the electronic even more so, made it a sure fire game changer.
The main opposition in the field, the Congress, found itself helpless. It could neither challenge the narrative - that might have had proved even more disastrous, nor posit an alternative narrative with matching appeal, more so, given the biased nature of the media. The "Nyaya" - in any case, ostensibly directed at the bottom-most 20%, presumably, the most difficult to be accessed, was just no match. Despite the, apparently, spirited fight-back, the inevitable has happened. A wave of nationalist jingoism unfailingly helps a right-wing party, particularly, if in power. The real danger is what's going to happen in the coming days and months. All these factors contributed to Mr. Modi winning a second term, but what mattered the most was the first (the emotive factor, pertaining to Pulwama-Balakot), in the absence of which, nothing else would have fallen in place for him and the party. (Excerpted from the post below.) Here're a sample of introductory comments (or extracts therefrom), which one may find relevant in the given context, to the posts by this observer, in the recent past. *I. The Pulwama suicide bombing has come as a godsend to Modi as Kargil, which had happened because of massive intelligence failure on the Indian side, had fallen into the lap of Vajpayee. Not that even otherwise, the prospects were too clear.But, now things have turned appreciably more difficult. The easiest outlet for the insane, yet impotent, rage of the (Hindu) Indian masses, or at least significant sections thereof, at the gross humiliation suffered, is to vote for the most strident, never ever bother about the actual effectiveness, of the anti-Pak/anti-Muslim party, in a rush. That's the only revenge one can take, which one must. Hell with sane reasons. But, then, it's not only India. In any, whatever, country war or war-like situations work to the benefits of the national jingoists.More so, if they're in power. As an illustration, Stalin consolidated his power farther, in the course of the WWII, regardless of the immense disaster that his grossly cynical alliance with Hitler would bring in for the Soviet masses.In order to reap the advantage in the midst of a desperate situation caused by a totally unanticipated betrayal he'd have to change the 'Internationale' (ref.: <https://www.marxists.org/archive/grant/1944/01/scraps.htm <https://www.marxists.org/archive/grant/1944/01/scraps.htm>>) as the national anthem, which had been adopted in the wake of the November Revolution, as a prominent mark of the new born state's commitment to the idea of world revolution, and replace it with a truly "national" one. Also noteworthy is the rehabilitation of the Tsarist era despots and bloodhounds as national icons (ref.: <https://scholarship.richmond.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1063&context=bookshelf <https://scholarship.richmond.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1063&context=bookshelf>>). That helped to galvanise the "nation" behind him and make the supreme sacrifice. Conversely, even Hitler was, as it appears, immensely popular with the German masses, till the very end.The situation needs very imaginative handling.Even that may fall far short. <<The terrorist attack at Pulwama, killing 40 Indian soldiers, provides Narendra Modi a huge but risky chance to portray himself as the toughest politician in India. Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s victory in the 1999 Kargil war helped him win the next general election. Can Modi use Pulwama to do the same?He must avoid military action, which could backfire badly. Far wiser would be new forms of political theatre, similar to his “surgical strikes” in 2016, in retaliation for the attack on our armed forces at Uri. That satisfied the public demand for action without risking dangerous escalation into all-out war.>>(Ref.: 'A Godsend Opportunity for Modi! 'Stick to political theatre, it is safer than risking war with Pak'', dtd. Feb. 24, at <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/M0zhNzT4hXE <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/M0zhNzT4hXE>>.)II. Two short points. I.《(I)t's not only India. In any, whatever, country war or war-like situations work to the benefits of the national jingoists.More so, if they're in power.》II.In 1998, Vajpayee/BJP-led coalition government collapsed, ***within months***, because of constant bickerings among the partners. Someone had quite presciently pronounced that Samata, Mamata, Jayalalithaa would be its nemesis.Finally, it was the third one whose exit brought the house down. Even then, in the wake of Kargil, also a product of massive intelligence failure on the Indian side, Vajpayee could come back to power winning the same number of seats won last time, the highest till heading a comfortable coalition this time. III. A supplementary point. In 1972, there was a state poll in West Bengal. The Congress just swept the poll.Jyoti Basu, for the first time, was worsted, by a Conngres-supported CPI candidate. Of course, there was allegation of massive rigging and state terror. Yet, the successful culmination of the Bangladesh liberation war, conceivably, played its part.Btw, the CPI candidate, against Basu, on the polling day had been very badly beaten up by the CPI (M) workers. (Ref.: <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/progressive-interactions/Counter$20narrative$2C$20Amaresh$20Misra%7Csort:date/progressive-interactions/Y5EJ43vsuPs/FoDRIFtwAgAJ <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/progressive-interactions/Counter$20narrative$2C$20Amaresh$20Misra%7Csort:date/progressive-interactions/Y5EJ43vsuPs/FoDRIFtwAgAJ>>, dtd. Feb. 28.This was, in fact, a response to someone elese's original post.)III. Considering the provisional figure of 67.11% of polling this time, it's a rise of 0.71% points over the preceding poll in 2014 (66.40%, as reported by the wiki).2014 itself had seen a jump of a rather phenomenal 8.50% points: 66.40% - 57.90% (as reported by the wiki).The outcome was that since 1984, for the first time, a single party did win absolute majority, even if it had fought the poll in alliance with a few others and its vote share of 31.34% was the lowest ever for a party winning absolute majority.The fact that the voting %age has further gone up, even if only marginally, would tend to indicate a wave, given the phenomenal jump in the preceding poll.The only plausible candidates available to cause a wave are Pulwama/Balakot and anti-minority prejudices/anger.The Nyaya, in any case, meant for the bottom-most 20% of the populace, most difficult to be accessed, is hardly a competitor.The other likely candidate could be strong disaffection with the present dispensation - the hoax of "Acche Din".But, that'd have, normally, had brought the polling percentage down, not pushed it up.Btw, exit polls, almost unfailingly, miss the magnitude of a large swing. But, all these are, admittedly, speculations.One'll have to wait for the 23rd, just two days away.<<Voter turnouts have fluctuated over the past 16 Lok Sabha elections, the lowest being in first election held in 1951 with 45.67% voter participation. Thereafter turnouts were 47.74% in 1957, 55.42% in 1962, 61.33% in 1967 (the first elections when Indira Gandhi led Congress), 55.29% in 1971, 60.49% in 1977, 56.92% in 1980, 64.01% in 1984-85 (held in the wake of assassination of Indira Gandhi), 61.95% in 1989 (when National Front won under V P Singh), 55.88% in 1991-92 (during which Congress president Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated), 57.94% in 1996, 61.97% in 1998, 59.99% in 1999, 57.98% in 2004, 58.19% in 2009 and 66.44% in 2014.>>(Ref.: <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/a2fek4E9XUQ <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/a2fek4E9XUQ>>, dtd. May 21.)IV. Actively aided by the Election Commission and the mainstream media - the electronic media even more so, this, effectively, became a Pulwama-Balakot election. The opponents had hardly any means to counter. On top of that, the way the actual poll process, including the, yet to be taken up, counting, is conducted. 《Modi changed the narrative after a clash with Pakistan in February following a terrorist attack in the disputed state of Kashmir that killed at least 40 security personnel, sparking outrage among Indians. On the campaign trail, Modi repeatedly invoked the need to hit back hard at Pakistan, an archrival of India since partition in 1947.***“Your vote on the lotus will mean dropping 1000 kilogram bombs on terrorist camps,” one BJP leader said earlier this month, referring to the party’s symbol—a lotus—which is featured along with other party insignia on electronic voting machine buttons.*** [Emphasis added.] [In fact, Modi himself had asked the (first-time) voters to dedicate their votes to the martyrs of Pulwama and the heroes of Balakot.]The calls to patriotism—and overt appeals to his Hindu nationalist base—appear to be resonating, with exit polls showing his coalition may sweep to a large majority once again.》(Excerpted from the post below.)Also look up: I. <https://mobile.twitter.com/ECISVEEP/status/1131068070078763009/photo/1?fbclid=IwAR0MXRKic6pwsFAq1L3K6n5CcGYWvw613G4wXRGg2kCRR5ZAKd5i5cXKtPE <https://mobile.twitter.com/ECISVEEP/status/1131068070078763009/photo/1?fbclid=IwAR0MXRKic6pwsFAq1L3K6n5CcGYWvw613G4wXRGg2kCRR5ZAKd5i5cXKtPE>>.II. <https://twitter.com/Dr_Uditraj/status/1131061207878819840 <https://twitter.com/Dr_Uditraj/status/1131061207878819840>>.(Ref: <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/lnxONd43CdM <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/lnxONd43CdM>>, dtd. May 22.)* END *But, the more important point is that what is going to happen in the coming days and months???These are some of the possibilities:AA. Dislodging/dismissal of a few state governments may now be in the pipeiline.BB. Attack on opposition parties, to demoralise and/or break them up by using carrots and sticks (ED/IT/CBI etc.)CC. Further intensification of non-state physical violence.DD. In terms of policy moves:(i) An early roll-out of the NRC nationwide.(ii) Mega sale of PSUs.(iii) Trashing of environmental norms and safeguards.(iv) Tightening the grip over the education infrastructure and institutions.(v) Further defanging of watchdog institutions.(vi) Attacks on civil society organisations.(vii) More repressive laws, if felt necessary.Of course, the regime need not be in a great rush, as regards all these.Rather makes a hell lot of sense to go for the kill with a degree of caution.One may also come across a magnanimous statement on the occasion of oath-taking, or whatever.Even some peace overture towards Pakistan.It always helps to confuse.But, as regards dislodging the state governments, there'd be lot of pressure from the state leaders.In any case, the regime is expected to move on the lines delineated above, sooner of later.Before the next poll, left to itself, the regime would rid the country of any effective opposition.That's the precise message encapsulated in the repeated shrill cries of "Congress-mukt Bharat!"* *What deserves collective attention is what can still be done about it???*] https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha-2019/election-results-2019-five-reasons-why-we-will-have-five-more-years-of-modi/article27216892.ece?fbclid=IwAR2bqwpFnhfT-O57IFzTumhfz6bvOks1BmDpjwIJaPNaESDrZ35zuhJtZdo Election results 2019: Five reasons why we will have five more years of Modi Varghese K. George NEW DELHI, MAY 23, 2019 13:28 IST UPDATED: MAY 23, 2019 16:29 IST File photo: Narendra Modi Here are five reasons that can be easily identified right away for Mr. Modi’s spectacular second victory Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be ruling India for five years more. At least. This victory will be analysed from multiple angles, not only in the days to come, but for years. But here are five reasons that can be easily identified right away for Mr. Modi’s spectacular second victory. The emotive factor Mr. Modi’s personality was the overarching theme of the winning campaign and in him was personified strident Hindutva nationalism. The terror attack in Pulwama in February and India’s response to it — which was botched up as it is now clear — was cleverly used to mobilise passions that were visible for anyone who cared to observe and take note of. “Ghar mein ghus ke marenge,” became a war cry that worked. National security narrative This newly added national security narrative enhanced further the consolidation of a Hindu vote bank, that makes caste calculations irrelevant. This phenomenon was evident in 2014 also but far from any weakening, it expanded. The places where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) scored big in 2014 broadly remained with it, while the party made inroads into newer areas, significantly in West Bengal. No discussion on government There has been no discussion on the last five years in government — both the above factors led to a situation where the Mr. Modi could successfully sidestep any debate on the last five years of his government’s performance. A largely pliable media helped Mr. Modi in this. Discussions on the performance of Mr. Modi’s last five years were limited to welfare schemes, which helped him. Controversial topics such as demonetisation, economic growth and job creations did not find space in public discussions. Congress robocall campaign Congress, the principal Opposition party, tried to mount a campaign, but it was no better than those pestering robocalls that come into your phone at the worst possible times. From trying to place the party as an upper caste bastion — “Rahul Gandhi is a janyu dhari Hindu,” its communications head had declared — to repeating the same slogans without creatively re-framing them on a daily basis as Mr. Modi did, the party failed to communicate with the public. The NYAY (Nyuntam Aay Yojana) campaign that the party did, which cost it a fortune from its scarce resources, hardly had any resonance on the ground. The structural deficiencies of the Congress were amplified many times over by its disastrous communication strategy. Over-dependence on assistants — the bane of all liberal politicians around the world — ensured that Rahul Gandhi did not develop an intuitive sense of the political ambience. The alliances that weren’t While it is tempting to blame the Congress for the absence of a broader anti-BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) national coalition, the story is a little more complex than that. While regional parties are generally averse to the Congress, attempts by party chief Rahul Gandhi and his mother Sonia Gandhi to forge an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) were spurned by its chief Mayawati. Congress — on Mr. Gandhi’s directions — bent over backwards to make an alliance with Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, but the latter cunningly avoided it. The AAP now blames the Congress, with an eye on the Delhi Assembly election later this year. The Samajwadi Party (SP)-BSP alliance’s performance in Uttar Pradesh now shows that it did not work to the extent that it was initially expected to. All these factors contributed to Mr. Modi winning a second term, but what mattered the most was the first, in the absence of which, nothing else would have fallen in place for him and the party. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. To view this discussion on the web, visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/greenyouth/CACEsOZgFtKWMkHuSpOV64yuwrNQ4LdGfK9ac3z7FjhEkuLAyQQ%40mail.gmail.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
