[I. Bihar is a traditional low-polling state. In recent years, the highest polling rate in an assembly poll was 62.6%, in 2000. It'd plumb the lowest, in 2005 (2nd time): 45.9%. This time, it was: 57.1%. (Ref.: < https://scroll.in/article/978521/decoding-the-bihar-results-in-32-charts-turnouts-vote-shares-victory-margins-and-more >.)
II. Broadly, the NDA has done better in the areas polling higher and the MGV in the areas polling lower. (Ref.: < https://scroll.in/article/978521/decoding-the-bihar-results-in-32-charts-turnouts-vote-shares-victory-margins-and-more >.) III. Looked at in a different way, in the three-phase poll, the MGV scored its best in the first - well ahead, more than double, of its rival NDA; and the worst in the third/last - less than half of that NDA. The Congress - the second largest constituent in the MGV, however, did its best in the first phase and the worst in the second - in terms of proportions of total seats won. (Ref.: < https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/explained-bihar-assembly-election-result-in-10-charts/articleshow/79167887.cms >.) IV. In terms of strike rates, the BJP (74 seats and 19.5% vote share) has performed best: 67.27%. The CPI(ML)-Liberation (12 seats and about 3%(?) vote sahre): 63.16%. The RJD (75 seats and 23.1% vote share): 52.02% (it's actually 53.02?). The JD(U) (43 seats and 15.4% vote share): 35.54%. The Congress (19 seats and 9.5% vote share): 26.03% (it's actually 19/70 = >27%.). The AIMIM (5 seats and 1.2% vote share): 12.2%. (Ref.: < https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/explained-bihar-assembly-election-result-in-10-charts/articleshow/79167887.cms> and <https://results.eci.gov.in/ACTRENDS2020/partywiseresult-S04.htm>.) V. As per the post-poll *survey*, 76% of Muslims ha ve voted for the MGV and 5% for the NDA. If the Seemancha region is taken out, it'd be significantly even higher - for the MGV. Dalit votes have, apparently, been more or less evenly split between the two rival camps. However, each caste of the Dalit conglomerate has voted (largely) in its own way. If there's a prominent leader from the caste, votes have, to a significant extent, swayed that way. (Ref.: < https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/decoding-the-close-bihar-election-verdict-7048328/ >.) VI. While the LJP has damaged the prospects of the JD(U), in particular, the AIMIM has damaged the MGV. The Left - the CPI(ML)-Liberation in particular, has, as a constituent of the MGV, scored pretty spectacularly. The NDA has been dragged down by the JD(U) and the MGV by the Congress, even more so. VII. Lastly, as regards the AIMIM, it helps the BJP in *two*, not one, ways. I. It, of course, splits up the anti-BJP votes. That helps in the FPTP system. II. It, also, *helps boost BJP's Hindu votes*. Despite repeating it ad infinitum, it doesn't appear to register. In fact, *the second way - even if less obvious, could be more pernicious*. *It just not communalises the Muslims, but, Hindus as well*. Why and how? Here's the no. 2 of the AIMIM, operating on its home turf: < https://youtu.be/krdym7gFVvA>. Of course, all the while it won't be all that strident. May not be even half as much. But, the very essence of its politics is very graphically captured here. Any alliance with the AIMIM will not only help legitimise it as a mainstream party - as the JP movement, in particular, did to the BJS, and thereby attract more and more Muslim votes, it'll also push large number of Hindu voters into the eager lap of the BJP. In sum, a great disaster. Of course, the "secular" parties must take up the legitimate demands of the Muslims. No doubt about that. However, nullification of the Shah Bano judgement of the Supreme Court won't count as one. At Sl. No. I below is reproduced an analysis of unknown origin, meant to illustrate the above point in the context of the Bihar poll.] I/V. This is how Owaisi helped BJP through reverse polarisation. #Third phase - The third phase saw more inclination to vote for BJP as compared to the first two phases and JD(U) too gained from the momentum. East and West Champaran in any case is a stronghold of the BJP and it won more seats even in 2015 over there. This time again the area allowed it a big haul. However, the real surprise came from Seemanchal where out of 24 seats, NDA bagged 12 while MGB could get only 7, and 5 seats went to AIMIM. CASCADING EFFECT OF AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGNING OF AIMIM The AIMIM ran an aggressive Muslim-issues-centric campaign in the entire Seemanchal region which has 24 assembly seats in core and another 20 in buffer area. Araraiya, Kishanganj, Purnia and Katihar Lok Sabha seats fully fall in Seemanchal. The Muslim population here is more than 40%. The AIMIM campaign contained hot topics of the central government like CAA/NRC. Nitish Kumar himself has voiced opposition to these issues in Bihar under his watch. Because of AIMIM, the focus of this election shifted from Nitish’s non performance to these contentious issues which ultimately helped the BJP’s polarisation plank. This affected the entire third phase through extensive coverage by media. Here’s what happened next: Assembly segments under Araria Lok Sabha seat (45% Muslim Votes) -Narpatganj BJP won by getting almost 50% votes -Raniganj (SC) JD(U) picked up 44% votes and won with 1.5% margin -Forbesganj BJP won with almost 50% votes -Araria Congress victorious with 54% votes -Jokihat MIM won with 34% votes, RJD got 30%, BJP got 28% -Sikti BJP won with 47% votes Assembly segments under Purnea Lok Sabha seat (35% Muslim votes) -Kasba Congress won with 41% votes. NDA left this seat to HAM-S which third and LJP was second -Banmankhi BJP won with 52% votes -Rupauli JD(U) victorious with 35% votes as CPI couldn’t hold on and conceded LJP the second position -Dhamdaha JD(U) won with 48% votes with full support of BJP, against RJD’s 32% -Purnia BJP secured victory with 53% votes against Congress’s 36% -Korha Congress lost its traditional seat after 3 wins; BJP secured 53% votes against Congress’s 39% Assembly segments under Katihar Lok Sabha seat (40% Muslim votes) -Katihar BJP secured victory with almost 49% votes that proved too much compared to RJD’s 43% -Kadwa Congress won with 42% votes as JD(U) and LJP split each other’s votes -Balrampur Here CPI(ML) secured 51% votes, defeating the VIP candidate by a handsome margin -Pranpur Vote division among minority candidates led to BJP victory with 39% votes -Manihari Congress won this seat comfortably with LJP playing spoilsport for JD(U) -Barari JD(U) secured 45% votes and a comfortable victory over RJD’s 39% votes Assembly segments under Kishanganj Lok Sabha seat (70% Muslim votes) -Bahadurganj: AIMIM won this seat with almost 50% votes -Thakurganj: This seat is a classic example of Hindu-Muslim polarisation as JD(U) candidate was a Muslim and so was LJP’s besides AIMIM. One independent candidate Gopal Agrawal bagged 56,000 or 29% votes and came second. RJD’s Muslim candidate won this seat -Kishanganj: It has an almost 70% Muslim population and yet a BJP candidate lost by a small margin of 0.8% votes to the Congress as the AIMIM almost allowed the BJP to sneak through -Kochadhaman: AIMIM secured almost 50% of votes as RJD came a poor third. JD(U) and LJP too fielded Muslims -Amour: Here again AIMIM secured almost 50% of votes as Congress came third. JD(U) fielded a Muslim candidate as well who lost -Baisi: AIMIM bagged this seat in a three-corner contest as RJD came third with BJP second The real drama occurred in buffer areas of both second and third phase—Mithilanchal to Anga Pradesh all affected. Besides the aforementioned 4 Lok Sabha seats where Muslim Population is 35 to 70%, the eight Lok Sabha, seats namely Bhagalpur, Supaul, Madhepura, Khagaria, Darbhanga, Jhanjharpur, Madhubani and Samastipur spread from Anga Pradesh to Mithilanchal but close enough to Seemanchal region by either sharing boundaries with any of those four Lok Sabha seats or just the connected seat having a demography where Muslim population is 15 to 25%, bore the real consequences of the aggressive campaigning of AIMIM. Madhubani Lok Sabha seat, where Muslim population is about 26%, gave the worst result for the MGB with none of its candidates able to win whereas NDA got all 6. In Jhanjharpur, Madhepura, despite being a Yadav-dominated area, Supaul and Darbhanga, the MGB managed to win just one assembly each out of six in every Lok Sabha seat. In Madhepura, some minor effect of Pappu Yadav was also felt by MGB. In Bhagalpur Lok Sabha region, MGB won 2 seats whereas Khagaria, another Yadav-dominated district was the only exception, which returned 4 winners for MGB. Notably this district has a less than 15% Muslim population. In Samastipur Lok Sabha constituency, MGB managed to win only 2 seats while NDA got 4. So in 48 assembly seats of these eight Lok Sabha regions, NDA bagged 36 seats with a fabulous 75% strike rate while the MGB could get only 12. If we add all Seemanchal core area seats as well, then out of 72 assembly seats of north-central and north-east Bihar, the NDA bagged 48, the MGB got a mere 19 and 5 went to AIMIM. II/V. https://scroll.in/article/978521/decoding-the-bihar-results-in-32-charts-turnouts-vote-shares-victory-margins-and-more III/V. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/explained-bihar-assembly-election-result-in-10-charts/articleshow/79167887.cms IV/V. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-bihar-voted/articleshow/79184856.cms V. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/decoding-the-close-bihar-election-verdict-7048328/ -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web, visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/greenyouth/CACEsOZjrTkSapjKZohfUFOQ2Q2-%3D26Udo-0XV1FWczGJZbk6oA%40mail.gmail.com.
