[A goldmine of relevant data.

What it, however, completely misses that there were two (critical) - just
not one, factors underlying the spectacular victory of the BJP in the last
parliamentary poll.
On top of Modi's popularity - Hindutva+charisma, there was Pulwama-Balakot,
triggering an upsurge in jingoistic nationalism.

The second factor was/is, obviously, absent in the assembly polls - before
or after.
Added to that, the higher salience of the local issues somewhat dim the
"charisma" bit of the "leader".
That's why: One Nation, One Election!

But, then, there're more things in heaven and earth.
That's why a poll prediction is always a tricky business, that too, months
in advance.
"Events" may have huge impact.
Pulwama-Balakot is a graphic illustration (ref.: <
https://docs.google.com/.../2PACX-1vSX4J7wt12TDUlBKNQ.../pub>).]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/the-bengal-election-whos-winning-2341797?amp=1&akamai-rum=off&fbclid=IwAR1_NEwu1oqXnhyIvbFEh4wbZPUgonmS3xzpdwbToPN5oT1hW3i7pJOeeMs

The Bengal Election - Who's Winning?

NDTV Election DeskUpdated: December 22, 2020 9:29 am IST

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