That Putin is threatening - or, to be more exact, appearing to be out, to
invade Ukraine is a "fact" on the ground.

His attempt, thereby, to bring the NATO to the negotiating table and make
it concede to - at least some of, his demands as regards the NATO and its
deployments - in the eastern part of the Europe in particular, has not
borne any fruit as yet.

Yet, he is maintaining the threatening posture and, in fact, incrementally
intensifying it.
Obviously, such an action cannot be without some (considerable?) cost to
the Russian Federation.

The point is why?

One explanation could be that he's gradually tightening the grip around
Ukraine for the final assault.
That's what the US is selling.

An alternate explanation could be that he, thereby, wants Ukraine to bleed
and bleed and make its government too unpopular so that it can be replaced
by a pliable regime - as had been the case earlier, by engineering popular
protests spearheaded by the Russian speaking population.
Or make the current regime itself buckle and be ready to toe the Moscow
line - in order to survive.

These two approaches are not strictly mutually exclusive.

Leaving aside the issue of political and moral legitimacy of such an
approach, things have, undoubtedly, turned too dangerous.
The peace movements can only (i) essentially appeal to the conscience of
the feuding big powers - the active players, urging them to step back and
(ii) build public opinion towards that.
The problem is that it's likely to have very little impact on one of the
contending sides.
Nonetheless, we must keep trying; there's just no other go.

Even a relatively Swift and successful armed takeover of Ukraine -
eschewing an apocalyptic nuclear conflict, may, nevertheless, tum out to be
a pyrrhic victory for Putin.
The successful military occupation of Afghanistan would, eventually, not
only lead to the ignominious withdrawal later, but, also be followed up
with the crumbling down of the Soviet state itself, not too long thereafter.
In sharp contrast, the humiliating withdrawal from Vietnam or, just the
other day, Afghanistan did little to undermine the stability of the US
state itself.
There's no way to know whether Putin has duly factored that in.

The following excerpt offers at least some room for optimism.
The European countries, for very obvious reasons, are a tad or two (or even
more?) less resolute as compared to the US vis-a-vis Putin.
Let's see.

<<Macron's trip to the Ukrainian capital comes after Putin told him Russia
would "do everything to find compromises that suit everyone", raising the
prospect of a path to de-escalating the volatile situation.

Putin said several proposals put forward by Macron at talks on Monday could
form a basis for moving forward on the crisis over Ukraine.

"A number of his ideas, proposals... are possible as a basis for further
steps," Putin said after more than five hours of talks at the Kremlin.

He did not provide any details but said the two leaders would speak by
phone after Macron meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.>>

(Excerpted from: <
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220208-live-macron-heads-to-kyiv-as-putin-says-prepared-to-compromise
>.)

For a sum-up of the situation obtaining on the ground, right now, through
Western eyes: <
https://www.vox.com/22917832/vladimir-putin-ukraine-military-invasion>.

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