*The contours of the Russian gameplan are now coming out in bolder relief.*
The "recognition" is quite likely to be followed up with requests from the two recognised regimes - in control of two regions in eastern Ukraine, to Putin to come to their defence against aggression Ukraine. A positive response from Putin - *in case* the "recognitions" are considered legitimate, would also be deemed "legitimate" - not an "invasion". "Legitimate" or "illegitimate", that would be the alibi for moving in. The issue is how the attack - quite anticipated, on Kyiv would be justified? Perhaps, as a necessary step to defend the two "recognised" regions. <<Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to recognize the independence of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin said in a statement on Monday. "In the near future, the president plans to sign the order," the statement said. It added that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron had "expressed disappointment" over the decision in phone calls with Putin. The announcement came amid an uptick of violence <https://api.dw.com/api/detail/article/60854570> in the long-running conflict between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian rebels. The move by Moscow is expected to escalate fears among Ukraine and its allies about a Russian invasion.>> Prior to this, we had: <<Both Biden and Putin, whom Macron spoke to in separate phone calls on Sunday, have "each accepted the principle of such a summit," the Elysee said in a statement early Monday. . .. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday that Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major export goods if it invaded Ukraine.>> (Excerpted from: < https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-latest-biden-putin-agree-in-principle-to-hold-summit/a-60847723 >.) This would soon be followed up with: <<Russia said there were no plans yet for a meet between US President Joe Biden and Russia's Vladimir Putin following news that the two leaders would meet to discuss the Ukraine crisis.>> (Excerpted from: < https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-latest-moscow-says-no-concrete-plans-for-putin-biden-summit/a-60847723 >.) Let's still hope against hope. Sukla ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Sukla Sen <[email protected]> Date: Sat, Feb 19, 2022, 14:21 Subject: Ukraine Crisis: Set to Boil Over? An Updated Sum-Up To: The situation in Eastern Europe - with Ukraine as its epicentre, is evolving by the hour and a war is almost knocking on the door. It's Russian Federation vs. the NATO (or, put differently, NATO vs. Russia). It goes without saying, once an armed conflict ensues involving the Big Powers on the opposite sides of the barricade, things would tend to spiral out of hand - regardless of initial intentions, and, eventually, may end up in a huge nuclear catastrophe. Even otherwise, a major armed conflict will have a very damaging impact, especially, on the global economy - still struggling to recover from the debilitating impact of the yet-to-be-over pandemic. In the immediate, Ukraine faces the danger of being overrun by the Russian forces - massively mobilised on its borders. The NATO, while providing bountiful support to the Ukrainian regime, is committed not to take direct part in the conflict, if any, on the soil of Ukraine; it's, however, poised to "defend" its member countries in the neighborhood. The US, however, has, to be sure, promised to hit back massively by way of economic and diplomatic sanctions in case of an eventual Russian invasion of Ukraine. Just one month and a half back, the five acknowledged nuclear powers - Russia, China and three NATO states, had loftily pronounced, in a joint statement: <<The People’s Republic of China, the French Republic, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America consider the avoidance of war between Nuclear-Weapon States and the reduction of strategic risks as our foremost responsibilities. We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons—for as long as they continue to exist—should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war. We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented.>> (Ref.: < https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/03/p5-statement-on-preventing-nuclear-war-and-avoiding-arms-races/ >.) Yet, Russia is now - against the backdrop of the spiking tensions, all set to flex its, admittedly, formidable nuclear muscle via a huge nuclear drill. That makes it all the more worrying. And, almost in pursuance of a script prepared in advance, the armed conflicts in the rebel-controlled eastern part of Ukraine have, suddenly, spiked, in the immediate wake of Putin's declaration of troop withdrawal from the Ukraine borders - a claim that would be contested by the US, almost as immediately. Interestingly, on the 15th itself, Putin after a talk with the German Chancellor had claimed: "what is now happening in Donbas is genocide" (ref.: <https://youtu.be/xVCqCg3SWL4>), just a day before announcing troop withdrawal (ref.: < https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-latest-nato-skeptical-of-further-russian-troop-withdrawals/a-60794402 >). Offered below is a rather quick recount of the developments over the last ten days or so. I. The following is the major part of a comment that I did post on Feb. 8: <<That Putin is threatening - or, to be more exact, appearing to be out, to invade Ukraine is a "fact" on the ground. His attempt, thereby, to bring the NATO to the negotiating table and make it concede to - at least some of, his demands as regards the NATO and its deployments - in the eastern part of the Europe in particular, has not borne any fruit as yet. Yet, he is maintaining the threatening posture and, in fact, incrementally intensifying it. Obviously, such an action cannot be without some (considerable?) cost to the Russian Federation. The point is why? One explanation could be that he's gradually tightening the grip around Ukraine for the final assault. That's what the US is selling. An alternate explanation could be that he, thereby, wants Ukraine to bleed and bleed and make its government too unpopular so that it can be replaced by a pliable regime - as had been the case earlier, by engineering popular protests spearheaded by the Russian speaking population. Or make the current regime itself buckle and be ready to toe the Moscow line - in order to survive. These two approaches are not strictly mutually exclusive. Leaving aside the issue of political and moral legitimacy of such an approach, things have, undoubtedly, turned too dangerous. The peace movements can only (i) essentially appeal to the conscience of the feuding big powers - the active players, urging them to step back and (ii) build public opinion towards that. The problem is that it's likely to have very little impact on one of the contending sides. Nonetheless, we must keep trying; there's just no other go. Even a relatively Swift and successful armed takeover of Ukraine - eschewing an apocalyptic nuclear conflict, may, nevertheless, tum out to be a pyrrhic victory for Putin. The successful military occupation of Afghanistan would, eventually, not only lead to the ignominious withdrawal later, but, also be followed up with the crumbling down of the Soviet state itself, not too long thereafter. In sharp contrast, the humiliating withdrawal from Vietnam or, just the other day, Afghanistan did little to undermine the stability of the US state itself. There's no way to know whether Putin has duly factored that in.>> II. This is a detailed report on Russian mobilisation on the Ukraine borders, issued on Feb. 14: < https://citeam.org/order-of-battle-russia-ukraine-2022.html>. III. This is the report by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) - which has 57 participating states including the Russian Federation, France, Germany, the UK and the US, issued on Feb. 17 , on ceasefire violations - in the immediate wake of the sharp spike in ceasefire violations, in the eastern part of Ukraine - between the Ukraine government and the Russia-backed Russian-speaking rebels who are currently in actual control of these areas: < https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512506>. IV. This is the latest report by the OSCE, issued on Feb. 18: < https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512605>. V. <<In recent days, the OSCE Special Monitoring to Ukraine (SMM) has observed a dramatic increase in kinetic activity along the contact line in eastern Ukraine, equal to the numbers of ceasefire violations reported before the July 2020 agreement on the Measures to strengthen the ceasefire took effect.>> (Ref.: 'Statement from the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine', dtd. Feb. 18, at < https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512596>.) VI. In the meanwhile: <<The Russian military on Friday announced massive drills of its strategic nuclear forces, a stark reminder of the country’s nuclear might amid Western fears that Moscow might be preparing to invade Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin will personally oversee Saturday’s exercise, which will involve multiple practice launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the Defense Ministry said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would observe the drills from the Defense Ministry’s situation room and supervise the practice missile launches himself. The ministry said it planned the maneuvers some time ago to check the readiness of Russia’s military command and personnel, as well as the reliability of its nuclear and conventional weapons.>> (Ref.: < https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-joe-biden-europe-russia-vladimir-putin-91749e368bb54bdc42cd747496a21a2f >.) VII. The latest: < https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/18/russia-ukraine-news-crisis-latest-putin-biden-kyiv-russian-invasion-threat-troops-border-live-updates?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other >.) Also look up, as backgrounders: AA. ''Return of the Empire': The Ukranian Crisis: Through "Western" Eyes', dtd. Jan. 29, at < https://groups.google.com/g/greenyouth/c/_hG95YGUwjk/m/oSLqMW8pAgAJ>. BB. 'Ukraine Crisis: Nuclear Apocalypse Looming?', dtd. Feb. 12, at < https://groups.google.com/g/greenyouth/c/h2ipzHqxZz4/m/ndvRS2D6BAAJ>. CC. < https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-military-size-comparison-b2015701.html >. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web, visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/greenyouth/CACEsOZimThuY%2B2%2ByFaZLCa0SCh-iReWUU%3Dnom96xi5CqVAhH%2BA%40mail.gmail.com.
