<<Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats of possible use of nuclear
weapons against any state that might interfere with Russia’s large-scale
invasion of Ukraine have reawakened the world to the dangers of nuclear
war. The possibility of military conflict between Russian and NATO forces
has significantly increased the risk of nuclear weapons use. Because
Russian and U.S.-NATO military strategies reserve the option to use nuclear
weapons first against non-nuclear threats, fighting could quickly go
nuclear.

Putin’s threats violate foundational understandings designed to reduce the
dangers of nuclear deterrence, including the 1973 Agreement on the
Prevention of Nuclear War, in which the United States and Russia pledged to
“refrain from the threat or use of force against the other party, against
the allies of the other party and against other countries, in circumstances
which may endanger international peace and security.”

As egregious, worrisome, and risky as Putin’s nuclear antics are, the
reaction of the international community until recently has been far too
mild. The U.S. response to Putin’s nuclear threats, as well as those of
Western governments that also embrace nuclear deterrence ideologies and
rely on the credible threat of nuclear use, has been particularly
underwhelming.
...
Fortunately, a much needed, more forceful rejection of nuclear weapons and
threats of use emerged from the first meeting of states-parties to the 2017
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) held in Vienna June
21–23. Citing “increasingly strident nuclear rhetoric,” the TPNW
states-parties issued the Vienna Declaration, which condemns all threats to
use nuclear weapons as violations of international law, including the UN
Charter. The declaration demands “that all nuclear-armed states never use
or threaten to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances.”

The TPNW states-parties condemned “unequivocally any and all nuclear
threats, whether they be explicit or implicit and irrespective of the
circumstances.” Far from preserving peace and security, “nuclear weapons
are used to coerce and intimidate; to facilitate aggression and inflame
tensions. This highlights the fallacy of nuclear deterrence doctrines,
which are based and rely on the threat of the actual use of nuclear weapons
and, hence, the risks of the destruction of countless lives, of societies,
of nations, and of inflicting global catastrophic consequences,” they added.

The declaration underscores that, for the majority of states, outdated
nuclear deterrence policies create unacceptable risks. The only way to
eliminate the danger is to reinforce the norms against nuclear use and the
threat of use and to accelerate stalled progress toward verifiably
eliminating these weapons.
...
The next global gathering concerning nuclear weapons will take place in
August at the 10th review conference of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
(NPT). All states must seek to rise above their differences and work
together to reverse today’s dangerous nuclear trends.

Non-nuclear-weapon states can build on the TPNW meeting by encouraging
wider support for the norms against nuclear weapons. Rather than simply
criticize Russian nuclear threats as “irresponsible,” NPT states-parties
should condemn unambiguously all threats of nuclear weapons use. They must
unite in demanding that the nuclear-weapon states undertake specific
actions to fulfill the NPT’s Article VI disarmament provisions. This should
include an explicit call for the United States and Russia to begin
negotiations on new disarmament arrangements and for all NPT nuclear-armed
states to freeze their nuclear stockpiles and engage in disarmament
negotiations before the next NPT review conference, in 2025.

Given the growing risk of nuclear war, the first meeting of TPNW
states-parties and the NPT review conference must become a turning point
away from dangerous nuclear policies and arms racing that threaten global
nuclear catastrophe.

(Excerpted from: <
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-07/focus/turning-point-nuclear-deterrence
>.)

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