[A remarkably informed and realistic assessment, as it appears.] <<After combing through the more reliable outlets of the independent Russian press and social media, I had a lengthy conversation with Mikhail Zygar, one of the most knowledgeable reporters and commentators on Kremlin power. Zygar is a former editor-in-chief of TV Rain <https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/03/13/how-russian-journalists-in-exile-are-covering-the-war-in-ukraine> (known as Dozhd in Russian) an independent channel that Putin closed after the start of the war. His 2016 book, “All the Kremlin’s Men <https://www.amazon.com/dp/1568588178?ots=1&slotNum=0&imprToken=62c4782f-7e5b-bcb9-978&tag=thneyo0f-20&linkCode=w50>” was a best-seller in Russia and a well-sourced examination of Putin’s rule and the inner dynamics of his ruling circle. His new book, “War and Punishment: Putin, Zelensky, and the Path to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine <https://www.amazon.com/dp/166801372X?ots=1&slotNum=1&imprToken=62c4782f-7e5b-bcb9-978&tag=thneyo0f-20&linkCode=w50>,” will be published next month. Zygar, who is forty-two, left Russia after the invasion and has been living in Europe. In January, 2023, he wrote an Op-Ed column <https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/26/opinion/russia-putin-ukraine-wagner.html> in the *Times* about Prigozhin titled “The Man Challenging Putin for Power.” ... When I asked Zygar what was the most striking aspect of the uprising, he said, “Putin is weaker. I have the feeling he is not really running the country. Certainly, not the way he once did. He is still President, but all the different clans”—the factions within the government, the military, and, most important, the security services—“now have the feeling that ‘Russia after Putin’ is getting closer. Putin is still alive. He is still there in his bunker. But there is the growing feeling that he is a lame duck, and they have to prepare for Russia *after* Putin.” ... Even though Prigozhin has backed off, Russian, Western, and Ukrainian analysts will now struggle to understand the meaning of the conflict with Putin, what it has revealed about the rivalries of power in Moscow, and what it might mean for the war.
There is every possibility that Putin will, at least in the short term, muster the loyalties he needs to eliminate Prigozhin from the picture. However, that does not mean that Putin can be serene about his position in the long term: “Before this rebellion, there were a lot of rumors and theories about different clans supporting Prigozhin. There were rumors that he was supported by *siloviki* [security-service figures] in business like Igor Sechin [the C.E.O. of the energy conglomerate Rosneft and a former Deputy Prime Minister] and Sergey Chemezov [the C.E.O. of the state-owned defense conglomerate, Rostec].” ... If Putin were to fall sometime soon, Zygar says, he could be succeeded by extremely hard-line elements supported by the security services, or a “relatively” more liberal clan represented by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and the mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin. The atmosphere is somewhat reminiscent of the latter days of Joseph Stalin, in the early fifties, when he was planning yet another purge (against Jews, “rootless cosmopolitans,” and other perceived enemies) while rivals such as Georgy Malenkov and Nikita Khrushchev “waited patiently” for the old man to die so they could make their move. Putin, Zygar suggested, is acutely aware of how autocrats like the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan <https://www.newyorker.com/tag/recep-tayyip-erdogan>, have exploited coup attempts to carry out mass arrests, crack down further on media <https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-putin-criminalized-journalism-in-russia> and information, and reorder the government. He could follow suit. The usual voices on social media have been a cacophony of speculation all day long. That will not end soon. The drama, of course, is taking place while Ukraine has begun a counter-offensive against the invading Russian Army. “This is a historical chance for Ukraine,” Zygar said. “They need to attack right now. This is the moment when the Russian Army is busy with internal problems.” But, at the same time, there is no guarantee that the current chaos in Russia is purely good news for the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky. Zygar is concerned that after such a domestic embarrassment like the Prigozhin affair Putin might lash out abroad and escalate the war in Ukraine .>> (Excerpted from: < https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/vladimir-putins-weakness-unmasked-yevgeny-prigozhins-rebellion >.) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to greenyouth+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web, visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/greenyouth/CACEsOZj9Jttuq84NyJdNQo7y%2BLPV_p2VZdaByo8oF7sf%2BiL1dw%40mail.gmail.com.
