GTS content = marginal
On Wed, 20 Jun 2001, Robert Wilson wrote:
> Their tulip bubble (Amsterdam) in the early 1600's (?) was one of the
> original "internet stock bubbles" in modern times (along with the South
> Seas bubble, in London).
February, 1637, was the great tulip "bust", and an event notable in the
history of commerce primarily because it was such an extreme speculative
bubble. The Dutch certainly have no monopoly on extreme speculation.
During the run-up in tulip bulb prices, things got to the point that a
single tulip bulb could bring as much money as a ship, or twenty-four
tons of wheat, or a thousand pounds of cheese. Lots of money. The moto
tie-in is the occasional speculative bubble in prices of "collectible"
vehicles.
How does one recognize the out-of-control price run-up versus the value
driven price run-up? Carefully. But a few pointers do come up. In a
speculative bubble, those in the know will still participate, but only
marginally. There were markets for truly unique tulip bulbs, but the
insanity was when EVERYONE wanted in on the action. The indicator is that
truly quality items don't bring enough more in price than the, well, the
junk.
Motorcycles have seen a run-up in recent years. Old HDs, anything
British, etc., have all seen price increases. Those who know what's good
still are happy to pay for say, a Manx Norton, but let's face it, a
run-of-the-mill Shovelhead is not really worth that much.
Locally, prices for HDs have been instructive. A near-new Road King can
still fetch a pretty penny, but the older, and less valuable, HD is not
bringing the same money it used to. I think that's a good sign.
Will a GTS ever see an insane valuation level as a collectible?? I
suspect it will, but most of us won't be on this list when it happens.
Indeed, comments of the last week seem to indicate the market for our
bikes is a little soft right now.
Be careful buying when everyone is, especially those who don't know what
they're doing. I've known HD owners to point out that they bought it on
the advice of their accountant. I've known Ferrari GTO owners to not know
what "GTO" stands for. I saw a gentleman buy a pristine MGTD, for cash,
without starting the motor. When asked by the dealer where to deliver it,
he said leave it sitting, raise the price 20%, and send him the check
when it sells again. He got his money, by the way.
Ah.....the joy of speculation. Anyone want a hi-tech internet stock tip??
Phil
