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The Zurich Investment Group Newsletter
 
U.S. Market Update
 .Global Quantitative Strategy
Wednesday..
March 20, 2002..
Mark Zuckerman
Managing Director
Research
Zurich Investment Group

E-mail


Market Comment
It could be a consolidation period, or a pullback of as much as 10%, but with the current overbought state of the market, a pause for the next month or so would be entirely normal, in our opinion. The technical readings are not at the kind of extreme that would suggest a big decline, rather a period where stocks are more mixed, with opportunities continuing in both directions.
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-U.S. Market News
Equities finished on an upswing Tuesday after the Fed meeting concluded with no surprises: short-term rates were left unchanged and the central bank shifted its policy directive to a neutral stance from one that favored additional easings.
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_Asia Market News

TOKYO - Tokyo's leading Nikkei Average rallied 2.6 percent Tuesday as a weakening yen and growing signs of an economic recovery in the U.S. provided a solid lift to major exporters.
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_Europe Market News

LONDON - European bourses ended slightly higher on Tuesday, with support coming from early gains on Wall Street ahead of a US Federal Reserve policy meeting.
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_Taiwan Market Update

1. Half of Taiwan investments bound for China are in electronics/electricals. Taiwan companies invested US$133 million in electronis/electricals in China in January-February 2002, down 33% from the year earlier, according to Taiwan's Economics Ministry. Electronics/electrical investment represents 48% of the total US$277 million invested by Taiwan firms in China, down 37% year-on-year, in the first two months of 2002.
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DOWJONES
10,635.25
+57.50
+0.54%


NASDAQ

1,880.87
+3.81
+0.20%

NEWZEALAND
2073.87
+7.13
+0.34%

TAIWAN
5917.40
+10.67
+0.18%

HONGKONG
11222.83
0.00
0.00%

FTSE100
5316.10
+16.20
+0.31%

NIKKEI225
11640.06
-152.76
-1.30%

AUSTRALIA
3406.90
+1.30
+0.04%

Equity Analysis

James Morgan
Senior Analyst
E-mail

The FOMC moved to a neutral stance, as expected. However, it couched the change with dovish language. Our economists see the Fed increasing rates 100bp in the Aug-Dec period, pushing the Fed Funds rate to 2.75% by year-end with more to come in 2003. Global interest rates are thus expected to stay near 40-year lows through the next three to five months. Excess global liquidity will be looking for a home, and Asia's undervalued assets are likely to attract particular interest, say our Asia economists.
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Market Report

Monica Marais
Senior Analyst
E-mail

- Insights from our weekly analyst meeting.
- Ratings Change: Lowering rating on MMM shares to HOLD from BUY.
- Focus List: BUY-rated GE meets with financial community to explain accounting, disclosure and compensation practices.
- Growth Stock: BUY-rated GS reports its third consecutive quarter of improving EPS.
- Growth Stock: Increasing target price on BUY-rated Marriott to $50.
- Value Stock: Raising share price target on BUY-rated Schlumberger to $76.
- Stocks to Avoid: KKD reports 4Q EPS of $0.14; reiterating SELL rating.

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Equity Analysis

Joseph Wong
Senior Analyst
E-mail

(VRSN) VeriSign, Inc.; Price: $29.92; Internet Infrastructure and Applications
Top Pick; 12-Mo. P.T.: $45.00; Above Average Risk; Mkt. Cap.: $7.24 B; 3-Yr. EPS Gr.: 50%
2002E EPS: $1.00; P/E: 29.9x; 2003E EPS: $1.50; P/E: 19.9x
PART 1 OF 2: MARCH-QUARTER UPDATE; BUSINESS LOOKS ON TRACK
- We believe VeriSign's March quarter is shaping up about as expected.
- In spite of sluggish overall IT spending trends and the continuing downturn in the telecom sector, enterprise and carrier sales pipelines appear fairly healthy.

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