On 5/1/2010 12:00 PM, [email protected] wrote:
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Today's Topics:

    1. Re: Logistics (Anthony Jackson)
    2. RE: Logistics (Hal)
    3. Re: Logistics (David Scheidt)
    4. Re: Logistics (Nils Richter)
    5. RE: Logistics (Hal)
    6. Re: Logistics ([email protected])


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Message: 1
Date: Fri, 30 Apr 2010 10:26:08 -0700
From: Anthony Jackson<[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [gurps] Logistics
To: The GURPSnet mailing list<[email protected]>
Message-ID:<[email protected]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed

David Scheidt wrote:
On Fri, Apr 30, 2010 at 1:36 AM, Onno Meyer<[email protected]>  wrote:
Climate Science is a lot like Tobacco Science:

1) They describe complex systems with thousands of causes and
   thousands of effects.

2) The exact cause-and-effect mechanisms are not always known,
   and there are random factors, too. ("Uncle Ed smoked a pack
   every day, and he lived to the ripe old age of 99." -- many
   others didn't.)

That's what the climate change deniers want you to think.  It's not true.

No, there are plenty of weather effects we don't understand all that
well. Those weather effects are often irrelevant to the issue of climate
change, but that doesn't make his statement incorrect. Even ignoring
denialist camps, there's considerable variation in predictions of
long-term climate change, mostly based on uncertainties about the
behavior of various feedback loops.

\Any reasonable expert would claim a high likelihood that both
cimate change and cancer from smoking are real, not certainty.

No.  It's quite reasonable to make the claim that climate change is certain,
that it's caused by man burning fossil fuels, and it's happening now.

Actually, I'd call them comparable; there is no reasonable case for
either theory being incorrect. The statistical case for cancer from
smoking is overwhelming (I'm not sure of the size of available sample
sets, but it's a ridiculous number of standard deviations away from an
expected random distribution).


------------------------------

Message: 2
Date: Fri, 30 Apr 2010 23:51:28 -0400
From: "Hal"<[email protected]>
Subject: RE: [gurps] Logistics
To: "'The GURPSnet mailing list'"<[email protected]>
Message-ID:<2a70690cc0394bb5b811a44142d00...@danie>
Content-Type: text/plain;       charset="us-ascii"

That's what the climate change deniers want you to think.
It's not true.
We know damn well that carbon dioxide blocks long wave
infrared radiation.
We know that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is
rising.  We know that the increase in CO2 comes from burning
fossil fuels.  We know that the earth is absorbing more
energy than it's radiating away.  What's more, we know all of
these things from multiple independent methods, and the
analysis has been done by many different independent people.
There are no serious scientists working in climate that
disagree with that.
(There are some kooks, but you can find kooks in biology that
don't believe AIDS is caused by HIV.  The existence of  crazy
people is not an argument.
And, of course, their are monied interests paying people to
tell lies.) Global warming is real, man caused, and it's
going to cause problems.

Snipped Stuff

No.  It's quite reasonable to make the claim that climate
change is certain, that it's caused by man burning fossil
fuels, and it's happening now.

--
David Scheidt
[email protected]

It should be pointed out, that the terminology of "Climate deniers" implies
that those who take up opposing or dissenting views, are in the wrong.

<shrug>

Those two comments above were enough to make me think "this is one
discussion that is driven by dogma rather than an open mind either way.
Stay clear of it."

So - be aware, that your choice of wording above actually made someone back
away thinking that any further conversation would get into a pissing
contest.



------------------------------

Message: 3
Date: Sat, 1 May 2010 09:17:38 -0400
From: David Scheidt<[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [gurps] Logistics
To: The GURPSnet mailing list<[email protected]>
Message-ID:
        <[email protected]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8

On F



No.  It's quite reasonable to make the claim that climate
change is certain, that it's caused by man burning fossil
fuels, and it's happening now.

--
David Scheidt
[email protected]

It should be pointed out, that the terminology of "Climate deniers" implies
that those who take up opposing or dissenting views, are in the wrong.


It is.  They are.  People who deny climate change exists are simply wrong,
in the same way that people who claimed the earth doesn't orbit the sun were
wrong, or that evolution doesn't exist are wrong.  Observable reality takes
precedence over dogma; the observable data that supports the existence of
climate change is overwhelming, of very high quality, from multiple sources,
and very consistent.  People who deny climate change fall into one of three
categories: ignorant, crazy, or evil, depending on what their reasons and
motives are.

I think this is overstating the case a bit; while it's important to be correct, it's more important to be correct in as honest and convincing a way as possible, lest you discredit the truth. Lets assume for topical purposes that I am contemplating a scenario involving the discrediting of the truth of the sciences, including man-made climate change.

The Copernican model is based on evidence that is available to everyone and is evident in a small period of time compared to the way people view things, it's easy to illustrate and has lots of popular applications, so that's a pass. Evolution involves slow progress mostly on the scale of many millenia, even with punctuated equilibrium, and the applications are largely in highly technical fields with little differentiation from the end-user POV like medications that make them better. Good candidate for denial, as long as we can supress those snakehead fish stories in the media.

Man-made climate change falls in the middle. There have been minor examples of it before, with the Soviets fubaring the Ural Sea and redirecting the Volga or some other river, whatevar, but the big picture moves on scales of decades. However, despite the data being overwhelming, of very high quality, from multiple sources and very consistent (not to mention puiblicly funded), the East Anglians have refused to release it for reasons of their own, even before any agents from The Outfit became involved! Could there be another branch of The Conspiracy already at work here? Or are these researchers setting themselves up to be discredited, especially when a rogue insider leaks his obviously cherry-picked collection of years of documented misbehavior - when they could easily show how one-sided the leak was by releasing the other 99% of good stuff, they insist on keeping it close to their vests.

I don't recall any malfeasance involving the Copernican model, at least not among its scientific proponents. The Piltdown Man hoax put a dent in evolution for a while, but it was the open-ness of allowing the fragments to be examined that allowed them to be exposed as fraudulent, and led to more robust and bullet-proof dating techniques to prevent other such fakes and confirm the age of the genuine remains, making the discrediting efforts have to center on the prejudices of the public rather than challenging it on the evidence. Why would the Climatic Research Unit be so unforthcoming in this way? (I'm an assistant researcher myself in my day job, and I spend long hours collecting data and making sure it is reviewable by whoever in order to be taken seriously.)

--
Jeff Wilson - [email protected]
IEEE Student Chapter Blog at
< http://ieeetamut.org >
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