KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-12 http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted � 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given. Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied Date Format is YY/MM/DD Published Friday 03/09/05 At 1500 UTC PAST 72 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES- Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups currently contain twisted magnetic fields capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares. Solar Flux Readings- 106-112 Sunspot Number- 79-90 X-Ray Solar Flares- C-1 M-0 X-0 Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B2.1-B3.2 Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- None Recurrent Coronal Hole #054 which became geo-effective on 03/08/28 and began impacting the geo-magnetic field with active Kp-4 conditions on 03/09/01 at 0622 UTC, should end it's negative influence within 24 hours. Recurrent Coronal Hole #55 will become geo-effective (Earth facing) on 03/09/07. In the past 72 hour period the Ap index has been at quiet to active levels, with a spread of 4-29. In the past 72 hour period the Kp index has been at unsettled to active levels, with a spread of 3-4. Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions. 1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF. 2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. 2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200 best for F layer multi hop. 3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively is best. 5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band. 7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON #4.- Correlation Of Energetic Protons, Solar Flux and Ap & Kp Indices With Medium Frequencies- I've been observing energetic proton levels, as well as the Ap & Kp indices for 30 years and see a direct correlation between high energetic proton levels above 10 MeV (10+0) and poor propagation on high and at times mid latitude medium frequency paths at night and day. High solar flux values are generally considered to be detrimental to medium-frequency signals both domestic and TA/TI/TP, as more absorption can be present as the transmitted signal makes two trips through the D layer, near sunrise and sunset. However most medium wave frequency RF signals in excess of 3100 miles are propagated via the E valley/F layer ducting and/or Chordal Hop propagation mechanism and a high solar flux value ensures a strong E and F-layer duct mechanism. An elevated energetic proton flux level greater then (10+0) on 160 meters and greater then (10-1) on the medium frequency broadcast band creates noticeably increased winter time day and year round night time D layer absorption of medium wave frequencies, especially on high latitude propagation paths but it can also negatively impact mid latitudes, depending on the intensity of the event. Elevated energetic proton events too small to be categorized as a Polar Cap Absorption event (PCA) can still impact high and at times mid latitude medium frequency propagation paths in the form of excessive D layer absorption. ((((Note, high latitude medium frequency radio propagation paths can still be disturbed for days and up to weeks, following the end of an official >10 MeV (10+0) proton event.)))) 72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK- We will continue to see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions, with quiet Kp-<2 to unsettled Kp-3 conditions probable within 24-48 hours. Unfortunately though we can expect a return to active Kp-4 to minor storm Kp-5 within 72-96 hours, thanks to recurrent Coronal Hole #55. GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- Low Latitude- Good Mid Latitude- Good High Latitude- Poor Becoming Fair GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- Expect fair then becoming good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths. Expect poor then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. Expect fair then becoming good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths. Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+ Expect poor then becoming fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. "High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair. "High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair. "Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good. "Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good. "Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good. "Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good. Propagation Forecast Scales- Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better Good- S7-9 Fair- S4-6 Poor- S1-3 NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK- GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA (See Where Your QRN Is Coming From) http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones. Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones. Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones. Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. Space Weather Scales- Kp Indices- G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9 G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8 G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7 G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6 G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5 Active - Kp = 4 Unsettled - Kp = 3 Ap Indices- Ap 100-400 Severe Storm Ap 50-99 Major Storm Ap 30-49 Minor Storm Ap 16-29 Active Ap 8-15 Unsettled Ap 0-7 Quiet Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices- K- 0= A- 0 K- 1= A- 3 K- 2= A- 7 K- 3= A- 15 K- 4= A- 27 K- 5= A- 48 K- 6= A- 80 K- 7= A- 140 K- 8= A- 240 K- 9= A- 400 73 & GUD DX, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Plant City, FL, USA KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive & Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free Thanks To Grisoft AVG. 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