The partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) expelled from the huge X8.3 solar flare that occurred on Sunday 03/11/02 impacted Earth's magnetic field beginning at approximately 0600 UTC on Tuesday 03/11/04. The CME created an approximate 6 hour geomagnetic storm that peaked at a strong Kp-7 G3 level at mid latitudes. My forecast was: mid latitudes strong K-7 G3 to severe K-8 G4 storming.The Bz only went negative for a short period of time limiting the strength and impact of the storm.
Turns out that a full halo Coronal Mass Ejection was expelled from the X class super flare yesterday. It's barely geoeffective but is moving incredibly fast at 2380 km/s. Because of it's size it will probably trigger a brief minor Kp-5 to moderate Kp-6 geomagnetic storm on UTC Thursday 03/11/05. Yesterday I estimated the super solar flare at an X30-40 level looking at it's duration, brightness and 11-15 minute saturation of instruments. It's not an easy thing to forecast it's intensity in an accurate manner. I saw the following guestimates today floating around on the Internet. SIDC Belgium X50 STD Canada X30-40 DXLC X25+ NOAA X20+ We should see a return to some semblance of space weather normalcy after the latest pending geomagnetic storm. Hopefully this will be the last special post and I can return to my 72 hour HF/MF radio propagation outlook. 73, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Plant City, FL, USA EL87WX Yaesu FT-840 & PSK31 Digital Mode E-Group: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/yaesu_ft840 KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute: http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free Thanks To Grisoft AVG. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.536 / Virus Database: 331 - Release Date: 11/3/2003 ---[Start Commercial]--------------------- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]----------------------- ________________________________________ Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ _______________________________________________ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
