The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the X25+ flare of 4-XI-2003 should arrive anytime, today. It will be a glancing blow, yet there is an expectation that it will be strong enough to trigger a major geomagnetic storm. Then, tomorrow or Saturday the Earth may be exposed to a fast solar wind stream from a small low- latitude coronal hole, now rotating in geoeffective position. This can maintain active to minor storm conditions for one or two days. The Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event is still active, but decreasing, possibly ending by the end of 6-XI- 2003. However, if shock-accelerated protons increase the >10MeV proton flux due to the arrival of a CME later today, the PCA could be extended for another one to two days. This will shut down over-the-pole and high-latitude propagation paths.
Solar activity has dropped over the last day, and the background X-ray levels are finally down in the B range. This is making it better for the lower bands. The 10.7-cm flux is decreasing, as well, so the highest HF bands are less likely to propagate. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]--------------------- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]----------------------- ________________________________________ Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ _______________________________________________ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
