The following is a corrected version of NW7US Propagation Bulletin 18 January 2005 - 1520Z
Active solar region 10720 (or, just 720) has spawned a great number of flares. So far, three of these unleashed coronal mass ejections directed toward Earth, and triggered proton events. The latest flare to do this was an X3.8 flare, which caused an extreme proton storm that is still active. The fast moving coronal mass ejection (initially measuring at a speed of over 1500 km/s, coming directly toward Earth) associated with this flare should arrive by the end of 18 January or during the first part of 19 January (UTC time). This means, for North America, the initial shockwave should arrive this evening. Currently, the sensor equipment aboard certain key observation satellites is saturated under the bombardment of protons due to the currently on-going extreme proton storm, which was triggered by the X3.8 flare. This makes it difficult to know what the current solar wind data is, or when the actual shock wave might arrive of this fast-moving CME. This will elevate the geomagnetic activity level. The Kp has been ranging between 3 and 7 already due to the first two CME arrivals. When this third CME hits it will cause severe geomagnetic storm levels of activity (Kp >= 7). Of course, this will trigger very energetic aurora, which should be viewable into the low-latitude regions. Radio Aurora-mode propagation is very probable starting this evening. MW propagation at my location is degraded, especially from N/S circuits. I am barely hearing Canadian stations that I normally DX without a problem. HF propagation will be very limited when the shock wave hits. More as new information become available. -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]--------------------- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]----------------------- ________________________________________ Hard-Core-DX mailing list [email protected] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ _______________________________________________ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
