KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook Update #2005-004A Issued Saturday 01/22/2005 at 1800 UTC
Yesterday I forecasted that partially geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection #6 would produce no more than moderate to possibly strong (Kp-6-7) geomagnetic storming. I also said that though only partially geoeffective, the incoming CME screaming along at a withering 1004 km/s, was a very large impulse and very hard to judge as far as it's potential impact on our magnetic field. In any event I was wrong. During the day yesterday we saw severe (Kp-8) geomagnetic storming for at least six hours! Just a few words concerning sunspot group #10720 that is rotating around the west limb of the Sun today, hoorah. #1.) During #10720's transit across the visible face of the Sun it produced 100 C class, 24 M class and 5 X class solar flares, quite prolific. #2.) It produced at least six geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejections. The last CME that arrived on Friday 01/21/05 was so intense that it was followed by magnetopause crossings. In simpler terms Earth's magnetic field was compressed in the opposite direction of the Sun such that orbiting satellites including the space station were exposed to the full wrath of the Sun, very unhealthy to microprocessors and human DNA. #3.) It produced an energetic excessive proton storm that reached 5040 pfu, the strongest of cycle 23. At one point protons actually penetrated to ground level in the polar regions! #4.) Last but not least it produced at least 38 hours of geomagnetic storming. Fortunately we will now see solar, space and geomagnetic weather return to some sense of normalcy. But we also have recurrent sunspot group #10715, now re-numbered as 10725, which just rotated into view around the eastern limb of the Sun. Last solar rotation this sunspot group was a prolific producer of solar flares. It already has a beta-gamma twisted magnetic field and is capable of C & M class solar flares. This group has the potential to grow rapidly in size and complexity, similar to now departed sunspot group #10720. 73 & GUD DX, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL, USA Grid Square EL87WX Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W [EMAIL PROTECTED] Propagation eReflector: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm -- No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. Version: 7.0.300 / Virus Database: 265.7.2 - Release Date: 1/21/2005 ---[Start Commercial]--------------------- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]----------------------- ________________________________________ Hard-Core-DX mailing list [email protected] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ _______________________________________________ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
