KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2005-012 http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY Published Friday 03/25/2005 At 0000 UTC Valid 03/25-31/2005 DISCUSSION- I'm back after a one week hiatus. Did anyone miss my outlooks? :<)) The period 03/11-24/2005 was quiet with two brief active periods due to high velocity solar wind streams from geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal hole #'s151 and 152. Due to the low daily sunspot count we experienced reduced MUF's that negatively impacted 10 and 12 meters. But we still saw some intermittent east-west F layer propagation on 10 and 12 meters due to near equal day and night time in both hemispheres as we approached the Fall/Spring Equinox. There were also some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6, 10 and 12 meters. There was minor increased night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths. There was minor increased signal absorption on the LF band at nighttime and minor enhanced propagation conditions at daytime. At times lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160 and 80 meters and to a lesser extent on 40 meters. ----- With the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux on the decline and also due to seasonal changes in the F layer we will not see any appreciable east-west F layer propagation on 10 and 12 meters. I expect LF and MF propagation conditions to "SLOWLY" improve during the upcoming seven day period. By the way, just a reminder that the effects of the solar wind on Earth's magnetosphere decreases as we approach the Summer/Winter solstice and increases at the Fall/Spring Equinox. Why? Basically it's the orientation of Earth's magnetic field with respect to the Interplanetary Magnetic Field within the Solar Wind. When solar material and shock waves reach Earth their effects may be enhanced or dampened depending on the angle at which they arrive. Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations thanks to the continuing weak El Nino, mainly in eastern Oceania and North and South America, including the Caribbean. SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED- During the period quiet (Kp-0-2) geomagnetic conditions "WILL OCCUR". During the period unsettled to active (Kp-3-4) geomagnetic conditions "WILL OCCUR". During the period minor (Kp-5) geomagnetic storming is "POSSIBLE". During the period moderate (Kp-6) geomagnetic storming is "IMPROBABLE". During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7-9) geomagnetic storming "WILL NOT OCCUR". The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is "LOW". The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is "LOW". The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is "LOW". The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is "HIGH". CH #'s 153 and 154. Daily solar flux levels should range between 90-75 No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups currently contain a beta-gamma twisted magnetic signature capable producing M and X class solar flares. However newly emerged sunspot group #10745 at N12E15 is growing in size and magnetic complexity and will become capable of producing large M class solar flares. The chance of a small C class solar flare is "HIGH". The chance of a large M class solar flare is "LOW TO MEDIUM". The chance of a huge X class solar flare is "LOW". Propagation Forecast Scales- LOW- 25% MEDIUM- 50% HIGH- 75% GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- Daytime- Poor. Nighttime- Fair for ham signals, good for broadcast signals. GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- Low Latitude- Good. Mid Latitude- Good. High Latitude- Good to at times fair. GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS- -Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles. *Expect POOR TO FAIR "Northern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles. +Expect GOOD TO FAIR "Northern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately 1100. -Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles. +Expect GOOD TO FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles. *Expect POOR TO FAIR conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD. "High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR. "High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR. "Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD. "Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD. "Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD. "Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD. Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD. Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD. Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD. Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD. Propagation Forecast Scales- Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better Good- S7-9 Fair- S4-6 Poor- S1-3 GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK- U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA (See Where Your QRN Is Coming From) Sorry but global views of near real time lightning strikes are no longer available. https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp During the 7 day outlook period there will be "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and El Nino. Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and El Nino. Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and El Nino. During the outlook period there will be "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones. Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN, tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones. Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. END OF OUTLOOK SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 03/11-24/2005 Sunspot Groups- No sunspot group contained a beta-gamma or delta twisted magnetic signature that produced M or X class solar flares. Solar Flux Readings- 115-87. My forecast was for ---. SEC Sunspot Number- 77-35 Solar Wind Speed- 573-293 Solar Flares- C-16 M-0 X-0 Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- B1.8-A6.2 Dst Index- -85 To +15 Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+o)- 0 Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0 Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0 Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 3, CH #151, 152, 153 No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0). The Ap index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic levels, with a range of 2-39. The Kp index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5. The Boulder mid latitude K index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5. The high latitude K index has been at quiet to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0-6. ***Here are some "general" guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions. 1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, with the exception of solar flux and sunspot number on HF. 2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi hop. For high frequencies over 125 is good, over 150 is better, over 200 is best. Keep in mind though that at medium frequencies the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background x-ray flux. See #7. 3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively is best. 5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no greater then (10-1) on MF AM broadcast band. 7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band but A9 or less is best. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 10.) A -50 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the Equatorial Ring Current. TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON - 16.) Solar Flare- A day side earthward bound solar filament and/or approximate C5 class or higher solar flare can move the proton flux >10 MeV (10+0) and initiate large scale high latitude propagation path absorption but even smaller C4 class flares and weaker are the culprit behind hour-to-hour and night-to-night variations in signal strength on the AM broadcast band and 160 meters, both stateside and DX. This transfer of increased density and RF signal absorption from the day-side D-layer to night-side of the ionosphere occurs through high level neutral winds. X-Ray Class Solar Flare. The rank of a solar flare based on its X-ray energy output. Flares are classified by the order of magnitude of the peak burst intensity (I) measured at the earth in the 1 to 10 angstrom band as follows: Class (in Watt/sq. Meter) B- I less than (l.t.) 10.0E-06 C- 10.0E-06 l.e.= I l.t.= 10.0E-05 M- 10.0E-05 l.e.= I l.t.= 10.0E-04 X- I g.e.= 10.0E-04 Background radiation in the 1 to 10 Angstrom range (Hard X-Rays), as well as Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays is the source of ionization of the D-layer. Basically a C-class solar flare possesses energy 1/10 the level of an M- class solar flare and an M-class solar flare possesses energy 1/10 the level on an X-class solar flare. (See definition #15. Shortwave Fadeout). Solar flares are not random meaningless explosions but instead a process inter related with coronal mass ejections (CME's) by which the Sun expels complex magnetic signatures enroute to changing it's magnetic polarity or said a different way the swapping of the Sun's magnetic poles. Basically the Sun swapped it magnetic polarity at the peak of present solar cycle 23 somewhere between July 2000 and December 2001. The next polarity swap will occur during solar cycle 24 somewhere around 2010-2011. For more information go to KN4LF LF/MF/HF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm . Space Weather Scales- Kp Indices- G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9 G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8 G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7 G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6 G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5 Active - Kp = 4 Unsettled - Kp = 3 Ap Indices- Ap 100-400 Severe Storm Ap 50-99 Major Storm Ap 30-49 Minor Storm Ap 16-29 Active Ap 8-15 Unsettled Ap 0-7 Quiet Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices- K- 0= A- 0 K- 1= A- 3 K- 2= A- 7 K- 3= A- 15 K- 4= A- 27 K- 5= A- 48 K- 6= A- 80 K- 7= A- 140 K- 8= A- 240 K- 9= A- 400 Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2005 by Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given. Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. 73 & GUD DX, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL, USA Grid Square EL87WX Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W [EMAIL PROTECTED] Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation HC-DX Propagation Channel: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm -- No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. Version: 7.0.308 / Virus Database: 266.8.0 - Release Date: 3/21/2005 ---[Start Commercial]--------------------- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. 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