AnimalVoicesNews Copy: BushWatcherNews on 2/2/07 10:54 AM, Grist at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Now We've Done It Humans "very likely" changing the climate, says long-awaited IPCC report A few weeks of leaks stole some thunder, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has released its long-awaited fourth report, and the news is -- well, not news, thanks to those meddling leakers. But let's pretend. The news is out! The world's scientists say there's a 90-plus percent chance that humans are causing global warming! They say by 2100, temperatures will likely rise 3.2 to 7.1 degrees Fahrenheit, and sea levels will rise 7 to 23 inches, plus another 4 to 8 inches if polar ice sheets keep melting. This is the real deal -- and it's a conservative deal, since it required a 154-country consensus. "Anyone who would continue to risk inaction on the basis of the evidence presented here will one day in the history books be considered irresponsible," said Achim Steiner, who heads the U.N. Environment Program. Even the U.S. sorta admitted the report has legs, with a White House science and technology policy staffer saying it "will be valuable to policymakers." As kindling, or what? ©2007. Grist Magazine, Inc. All rights reserved. Gloom and doom with a sense of humor®. [EMAIL PROTECTED] straight to the source: BBC News (Previously forwarded) <http://lists.grist.org/t?r=2&ctl=1A99:665ED9E2FFB0BA9F54097D1FB4A05DC4> , Richard Black, 02 Feb 2007 ------------------- straight to the source: Los Angeles Times, Thomas H. Maugh II, 02 Feb 2007 Letters <letters @ latimes.com> (close spaces) <http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-warming2feb02,0,7334392.story> 5:44 PM PST, February 5, 2007 U.N. says there's no stopping global warming Report also says climate change is 'very likely' the result of human activities. By Thomas H. Maugh II, Times Staff Writer February 2, 2007 In the strongest language it has ever used, a United Nations panel says global warming is "very likely" caused by human activities and has become a runaway train that cannot be stopped. The warming of Earth and increases in sea levels "would continue for centuries even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized," according to a 20-page summary of the report that was leaked to wire services. The summary of the fourth report by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, was scheduled for release this morning in Paris. But scientists involved in the final editing process have been leaking bits and pieces from it all week, culminating in the leaking of the full report eight hours before its release. The phrase "very likely" indicates a 90% certainty. The last IPCC report, issued five years ago, said it was "likely" that human activity was at fault, indicating a certainty of 66%. Many scientists had argued during the editing process that the report should say it is "virtually certain" that human activities are causing global warming. That would indicate a 99% certainty. But the change was strongly resisted by China, among other nations, because of its reliance on fossil fuels to help build its economy. The report also says scientists' "best estimate" is that temperatures will rise 3.2 to 7.8 degrees by 2100. In contrast, the increase from 1901 to 2005 was 1.2 degrees. The report also projects that sea levels could rise by 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century, and perhaps an additional 4 to 8 inches if the recent melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the Larsen B ice shelf in western Antarctica continues at current rates. That is a decrease from the maximum of 35 inches predicted in the earlier study. Nonetheless, such an increase would inundate many low-lying areas around the world, including islands such as Kiribati in the western Pacific Ocean and marsh areas near New Orleans. Such flooding would affect more than 10 million people. The report also predicts a melting of Arctic ice during summers and a slowing of the Gulf Stream. In addition, the report says, for the first time, that it is "more likely than not" that the strong hurricanes and cyclones observed since 1970 have been produced by global warming. The 2002 report said scientists did not yet have enough evidence to make such a link. The summary is a purely scientific document and does not offer any recommendations on ways to control the problem. Those are expected in a chapter to be released this year. The obvious solution would be to cut emissions of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, by reducing the use of fossil fuels in automobiles, factories and power plants. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol was designed to reduce such emissions, but some major countries, including the United States, China and India, have no defined targets. President Bush withdrew the U.S. from the protocol in 2001, arguing that it was an "economic straitjacket" and that it failed to set standards for developing nations. The earlier IPCC report was heavily criticized by conservative critics and a variety of online bloggers who said it exaggerated the effects of global warming. But a new study reported Thursday in the online version of the journal Science said that the IPCC report actually significantly underestimated both the extent of warming and the extent of the rise in sea levels. An international team of climate experts said in the Science report that data showed global temperatures had increased by 0.6 degree, at the upper limit of the U.N.'s predictions, and that sea levels had risen 0.13 inch per year, compared with the U.N. report's estimate of less than 0.08 inch per year. The data show that "IPCC is presenting a consensus view that has been OKd by a very large number of interests, so it tends to err on the side of making cautious statements and not exaggerating," said geochemist Ralph Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, one of the authors of the Science study. The Science study "looks quite solid to me, indicating that the climate is changing in a very significant way and model projections are not overestimates, as some charge," said atmospheric scientist Michael MacCracken of the Climate Institute, an independent think tank in Washington. The unexpectedly large rise in sea levels may be at least partially due to the recently observed melting of the ice sheets, the authors of the Science study said. The increase also may be due in part to a natural variability in sea levels superimposed onto rises produced by global warming, they said. It would be "premature," they concluded, to assume that sea levels will continue to increase at the current rate. The Associated Press and Reuters were used in compiling this report. Copyright 2007 Los Angeles Times ------------------- straight to the source: Forbes, Associated Press, Seth Borenstein, 02 Feb 2007 <http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/02/02/ap3388926.html> Associated Press Global Warming Man-Made, Will Continue By SETH BORENSTEIN 02.02.07, 7:23 AM ET Scientists from 113 countries issued a landmark report Friday saying they have little doubt global warming is caused by man, and predicting that hotter temperatures and rises in sea level will "continue for centuries" no matter how much humans control their pollution. A top U.S. government scientist, Susan Solomon, said "there can be no question that the increase in greenhouse gases are dominated by human activities." Environmental campaigners urged the United States and other industrial nations to significantly cut their emissions of greenhouse gases in response to the long-awaited report by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "It is critical that we look at this report ... as a moment where the focus of attention will shift from whether climate change is linked to human activity, whether the science is sufficient, to what on earth are we going to do about it," said Achim Steiner, the executive director of the U.N. Environment Program. "The public should not sit back and say 'There's nothing we can do'," Steiner said. "Anyone who would continue to risk inaction on the basis of the evidence presented here will one day in the history books be considered irresponsible." The 21-page report represents the most authoritative science on global warming as the panel comprises hundreds of scientists and representatives. It only addresses how and why the planet is warming, not what to do about it. Another report by the panel later this year will address the most effective measures for slowing global warming. One of the authors, Kevin Trenberth, said scientists are worried that world leaders will take the message in the wrong way and throw up their hands. Instead, world leaders should to reduce emissions and adapt to a warmer world with wilder weather, he said. "This is just not something you can stop. We're just going to have to live with it," said Trenberth, the director of climate analysis for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "We're creating a different planet. If you were to come up back in 100 years time, we'll have a different climate." The scientists said global warming was "very likely" caused by human activity, a phrase that translates to a more than 90 percent certainty that it is caused by man's burning of fossil fuels. That was the strongest conclusion to date, making it nearly impossible to say natural forces are to blame. It also said no matter how much civilization slows or reduces its greenhouse gas emissions, global warming and sea level rise will continue on for centuries. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level," the scientists said. The report blamed man-made emissions of greenhouse gases for fewer cold days, hotter nights, killer heat waves, floods and heavy rains, devastating droughts, and an increase in hurricane and tropical storm strength - particularly in the Atlantic Ocean. Sharon Hays, associate director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House, welcomed the strong language of the report. "It's a significant report. It will be valuable to policy makers," she told The Associated Press in an interview in Paris. Hays stopped short of saying whether or how the report could bring about change in President Bush's policy about greenhouse gas emissions. The panel predicted temperature rises of 2-11.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100. That was a wider range than in the 2001 report. However, the panel also said its best estimate was for temperature rises of 3.2-7.1 degrees Fahrenheit. In 2001, all the panel gave was a range of 2.5-10.4 degrees Fahrenheit. On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7-23 inches by the end of the century. An additional 3.9-7.8 inches are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues. The panel, created by the United Nations in 1988, releases its assessments every five or six years - although scientists have been observing aspects of climate change since as far back as the 1960s. The reports are released in phases - this is the first of four this year. "The point here is to highlight what will happen if we don't do something and what will happen if we do something," said another author, Jonathan Overpeck at the University of Arizona. "I can tell if you will decide not to do something the impacts will be much larger than if we do something." As the report was being released, environmental activists repelled off a Paris bridge and draped a banner over a statue used often as a popular gauge of whether the Seine River is running high. "Alarm bells are ringing. The world must wake up to the threat posed by climate change," said Catherine Pearce of Friends of the Earth. Stephanie Tunmore of Greenpeace said "if the last IPCC report was a wake up call, this one is a screaming siren." "The good news is our understanding of the climate system and our impact on it has improved immensely. The bad news is that the more we know, the more precarious the future looks," Tunmore said in a statement. "There's a clear message to governments here, and the window for action is narrowing fast." Associated Press Writer Angela Charlton contributed to this report. © 2007 Forbes.com LLC All Rights Reserved ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~> This is distibuted for nonprofit research and educational purposes only. [Ref.http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.html] You are invited to read past articles and alerts, subscribe, or unsubscribe or email with subject "subscribe" or "unsubscribe." BushWatchersNews: http://groups-beta.google.com/groups?q=bushwatchernews&start=0&scoring=d AnimalVoicesAlerts:http://groups-beta.google.com/group/AnimalVoicesAlerts AnimalVoicesNews: http://groups-beta.google.com/group/AnimalVoicesNews
