Bismillah [hidayahnet] The Al-Qaida Strategy To The Year 2020

Sun, 12 Jun 2005 08:26:05 -0700


Published In Arabic By Al-Quds Al-Arabi | English Translation ?2005 Jihad Unspun
 
     
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As a global war rages, al-Qaida has shed its earlier image of a disorganized group of �extremists?and is viewed more and more as a sophisticated organization with clear and concise policies, well defined strategies and carefully laid plans for their implementation.
While JUS remained skeptical of the very existence of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and of bin Laden�s last tape where he deviated from his previous positions, the Al-Qaida Strategy To The Year 2020 has surfaced that puts an end to these controversies. This strategy gives us a clear indication that the events that are transpiring today were preplanned, not a reaction to the American agenda, but by Al-Qaida strategists with the specific goal to open up a broad based Jihad front. Indeed, the tail is wagging the dog.
 
 
Al-Qaida Strategy To The Year 2020
 
The Al-Qaida organization has put together a strategic working plan for a broad Jihad front that spans the areas of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran passing through Lebanon. The time has come to discuss the ways in which the American administration and Al-Qaida oppose one another. A quick internet search reveals that Al-Qaida has a definite and well developed plan to affect events in the region that can not be ignored. The first step in its long-term strategy, which was to involve the United States in a regional conflict, was just a prelude to widening the struggle to other regions and Al-Qaida had developed strategic plans for the steps to be taken in the aftermath.

Events appear much more coherent than heretofore. Reports from the Pentagon and the US State Department have begun to suggest a long and tedious battle with the Mujahideen in Iraq, a collapse of their position in Afghanistan, and similar developments in Iran, southern Iraq and Pakistan. These views are substantiated by the total failure of the intelligence war against Al-Qaida; these efforts have failed to entrap anyone of significance in the organization, and have done nothing to disrupt the layers of communications across the seas and borders between Kabul, Tehran and Baghdad.
 
It appears also that the existence of a �strategic kitchen? or planning group for the organization, touted by some experts on Al-Qaida and Jihad is true. The strategic kitchen is believed to be the ultimate source of Al-Qaida's thinking and military philosophy. Some knowledgeable sources assert that the 'kitchen' operates at higher levels than even Osama bin Laden and Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri. For reasons known only to only to themselves, the �Shadow Leaders?in the organization have successfully leaked information now circulating in certain Arab capitals as well as in the offices of American decision makers, including the existence of a plan named �The Al-Qaida Strategy Up To The Year 2020?which is being adhered to meticulously.
 
Al-Qaida, again for unknown reasons, recently released information concerning two important matters; the first being the strategic thinking behind the September 11th attacks and the second being the disclosure of the first step in regionalizing the conflict. According to Al-Qaida media experts, the announcement made by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to join Al-Qaida and the subsequent acceptance by Osama bin Laden was not by accident but rather a deliberate move in this context.
 
Mention must be made here of the general cleverness and brilliance of the electronic war being waged by the organization that cannot go unnoticed. The impact of the timing and the substance of the information war, however complicated it may be to deliver, reaches all countries in the region, including Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon.
 
Some analyst  have concluded that all communiqu�s are written, edited, reviewed and leaked by an Egyptian by the name of Muhammad Mekkawi, a former war strategies expert in the Egyptian army. Mekkawi has been credited with introducing Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri in the mid 1990�s and is shrouded in mystery. He does not appear to play a direct role in the group�s leadership and his location is unknown, leading some people to suggest that perhaps he is in fact al-Zawahiri himself, or even Bin Laden. However, some experts believe that Mekkawi is a genuine third person superior to both Dr. al-Zawahiri and Sheikh Osama bin Laden. They further believe that he is the brains behind Al-Qaida�s long term strategic plan that was put in motion September 11, 2001 and that extends to the year 2020.
 
Whatever the truth about the mysterious Mekkawi, the man uses the internet to freely communicate pronouncements; many of which have proved accurate. He also gives substantial and credible analyses not only of current events, but also of both short and long range developments planned for implementation in the future.
 
According to the Mekkawi strategy, the September 11th attacks accomplished a fifth of their secondary objectives but their direct and central goal was completely realized; that was to provoke the �The Ponderous American Elephant?into invading the Arabian Peninsula and meeting it with a preplanned war of attrition, with provisions for all foreseeable eventualities. According to the Mekkawi strategy, the timing of the September 11th attack was carefully chosen by Al-Qaida based on the following two criteria:
 
1) The recognition that during the final months of the Clinton Administration, Al-Qaida had was considered a global enemy of America and had become the focus of American hostility.
 
2) The time had come for Al-Qaida to initiate a long-term strategy of Jihad to rid the Islamic nation and Muslims of oppression of all sorts, ultimately including Israel.
In order for the objectives and timing to be realized, the American Elephant had to be subjected to a painful and humiliating blow that would provoke it to invade without hesitation. Al-Qaida foresaw that the September 11th attack would draw an immediate response of a full scale attack on Afghanistan, with a subsequent attack on Iraq that would in turn be followed by renewed hostilities with Syria, Lebanon and ultimately Iran.
 
Another goal in having the United States send its troops into Asia and the Arabian Peninsula was to goad a second �Giant Elephant?into wakefulness; that elephant being the Islamic Nation as a whole. According to the Mekkawi strategy, the only way to wake the Islamic Nation up was to bring large numbers of American troops to the region and the best way to achieve that was the attack of September 11th. Provoking the occupation of Iraq with all the ensuing killing and destruction was seen as the only way to escalate the conflict into a full scale confrontation between America and Arabs and Muslims.
 
The strategy here was that this would arouse a religious reaction and the need to avenge the slaughter but the pragmatic side of it is even more interesting. Researchers concluded from Al-Qaida messages on the web of what took place in Afghanistan was specifically planned and executed according to Al-Qaida's carefully laid plans, and not according to those of the Americans. > read on page 2
  
     
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Following its plan, Al-Qaida dispersed its trained army inside Afghanistan and prepared for the evacuation of its top leaders prior to the onset of the American invasion. It also moved a large number of Mujahideen outside of Afghanistan, to Iran and Iraq, to be exact.
A direct confrontation with the invading Americans would have been disastrous. Instead Al-Qaida�s strategy was to wear the Americans down, engaged them in hit and run skirmishes across Afghanistan and that draw them into a difficult and complicated war of attrition in the nearly impassible mountainous areas. This account agrees with what is known of American military reports: there was no direct confrontation between Al-Qaida and the American military; what took place were isolated actions, most notably the engagement in Tora Bora.
 
Furthermore, all of the organization�s top leaders and military lieutenants evaded capture.
It is fair to say that Al-Qaida�s goal of sparking the Arab World into action has been accomplished. Al-Qaida has succeeded in drawing America into expanding its military presence with the alibi of the so called �war on terror? This has hit a sensitive nerve in the Arab and Muslim World and resulted in a general detestation of America just as planned and predicted by Al-Qaida.
 
Objective analysis suggests that the success of Al-Qaida's activities in Afghanistan resulted from the following essential preparatory steps:
 
1) A careful analysis of current events, especially in relation to political agendas.
 
2) Continuing careful negotiations (the terms of which remain unknown) with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
 
3) Convincing Iran that in the end, the benefit would be twofold: first removing Saddam Hussein and then engaging the Americans.
From these points one can reconstruct Mekkawi�s planning, the shadow leader of Al-Qaida. Zarqawi, accompanied by limited number of military lieutenants working in parallel with an administration and recruiting group, left Afghanistan to Iraq long before the American attack and were not involved in the fighting there.
 
Zarqawi�s duties in Iraq were carefully circumscribed. According to viewers of the only known televised account of Zarqawi�s life, he was ambitious to the point of accusing even Bin Laden of being too moderate. The expert opinion is that Bin Laden capitalized on Zarqawi�s stance and carried out a clever psychological game with Zarqawi to meet his own objectives. Bin Laden convinced him that the decisive battle was near and would be fought as Zarqawi wished. Bin Laden also provided him with one of Al-Qaida�s top experts in the field of evasion, an Egyptian young man who was brought to Afghanistan by Dr. Ayman Zawahiri and was ordered to head for Iraq, via Iran, with some of Zawahiri�s aids, most of whom are Jordanians. Zarqawi was instructed to take his group to the Kurdish part of North Iraq to join the Egyptian and his group, keeping undercover while awaiting further instructions.

One can conclude from Mekkawi�s electronic messages that Al-Qaida knew beforehand that Iraq would be the next battle front and had indeed prepared its response ahead of time. It was on that basis that Zarqawi left Afghanistan for Iraq.
 
While Zarqawi and his group were hiding quietly in northern Iraq, waiting for further instructions, he dispatched some representative to Baghdad and others to Amman to recruit capable youths to join his group in Iraq.
 
At that point, the Jordanian government smelled a rat. Officials in Amman began to notice Zarqawi-style activities during that time period and subsequently sent an envoy to Iraq to inform Saddam Hussein that Zarqawi was in his country. A public announcement to that effect was actually made by the then Jordanian Prime Minister, Ali Abu Al-Ragheb. But at the same time, Saddam�s security apparatus was already holding meetings with Zarqawi�s representatives who offering their help in case the Americans invaded Iraq. They assured Iraqi officials that their group would not operate inside the country unless Iraq was attacked by the Americans.
 
Saddam Hussein�s government feigned acceptance of Zarqawi�s offer and allowed him some freedom of action in Baghdad in return for his promise. This was a ruse; they agreed to let Zarqawi and his group operate freely in Iraq with the purpose of leading them to trust the Iraqi Security Services and relax their guard. In this way, it was supposed the Zarqawi group could be easily captured and possibly be used as bargaining chips with the Americans. This plan was recommended by the Egyptians who further suggested that Baghdad might be seen to join the supporters of the American 'war on terror' by giving Zarqawi to the Americans or killing him and destroying his group that may garner some goodwill with the Americans to avoid the planned invasion of Iraq.
 
George Bush gave Saddam Hussein's officers neither opportunity nor time to negotiate a deal to hand over Al-Qaida operatives and so Zarqawi escaped the danger. Mekkawi saw this escape as divine intervention; a major factor in the birth of the second stage in the strategic war against the Americans as Iraq became a second battle ground.
 
By the time the war on Iraq began and the subsequent fall of Baghdad, Zarqawi had put together a complete organization in Iraq and he and his experts left the dangerous zones to blend into the mass of ordinary Iraqi citizens. It was reported that Zarqawi obtained large sums of money from senior Baath members on the eve of the fall of Baghdad. With the help of a Kurd, an Egyptian, and two Jordanian aids, Zarqawi was able to create the foundation for a Jihad organization in the Land of the Two Rivers. In this, Zarqawi was driven by his ambitions; ambitions which Bin Laden knew how to direct. The central command of the Al-Qaida organization has allowed Zarqawi to become the unchallenged leader of Al-Qaida in Iraq where his trained and able fighters are now concentrated. The Zarqawi group was able to cooperate well with other resistance Baathist groups and gain the sympathy of the Iraqi public. The group was also able to get their hands on sizable amount of cash that was left behind by Saddam Hussein and his top lieutenants.
 
It is reasonable to say that Al-Qaida strategy has now advanced to page two of the plan. The zone of confrontation with the Americans has expanded to cover the area between Afghanistan and Iraq, taking full advantage of a 'neutral' Iran that has no present interest in opposing with Al-Qaida. As far as the movement of Al-Qaida members through its territories is concerned, Iran�s policy has been one of �We don't see, we don't hear, we don't talk.?lt;/DIV>
 
It is clear that the second phase of Al-Qaida's Strategy To The Year 2020 is now unfolding in Iraq. The question now becomes what is the nature of the remaining pages of their strategy?
There is no easy answer to this question but the patterns and style of the mysterious Mekkawi offers some good clues. The picture that emerges from his pronouncements suggests a disciplined operation aimed at expanding operations in the area, capitalizing on the Iranian and Shia involvement, and opening a regional war with the Americans to counter their global attacks on Islam and Muslims. This regional war will create a 'Jihad Triangle of Horror' to smack the Americans right in the face. This triangle of horror starts in Afghanistan, runs through Iran and South Iraq to connect with South Turkey, South Lebanon and Syria.
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BUT HOW IS THIS TO BE ACCOMPLISHED?
 
It is no longer appropriate to think of Al-Qaida as an 'organization' in the usual sense of the word. Al-Qaida has evolved into an ideology that transcends geographical borders and travels through the atmosphere using satellite communications. As its planners expected, other groups have emerged in other countries to emulate their ideology and tactics, exactly as has happened in Morocco, Somalia and even Yemen.
 
By converting Al-Qaida to a set of guiding principles and away from a typical organizational structures that are well known to security forces and with individual units able to operate without direct instructions, the global scope of Al-Qaida's impact has been greatly facilitated.
 
The decision to have field and local commanders operate independently has proved very important. Their autonomy in planning, choice of targets and tactics has created a very flexible system that has become highly successful in lands fertile for Jihad, such as Iraq.
 
According to Al-Qaida�s theoretical strategies, Iran cannot sit on the fence indefinitely with respect to Jihad against America. Iran is itself a strategic and tactical military target for the Americans, and sooner or later there must be a confrontation between the two. Al-Qaida leaders believe that the American administration has set the following five objectives as preconditions for their military confrontation against Iran (with of course the spurious Iranian nuclear threat as casus belli):
 
1) Ending the Palestinian uprising (Intifada)
 
2) Extinguishing all Iranian influence on the Mujahideen groups in Palestine. The level of Iranian influence varies from group to group. It is very strong in the Islamic Jihad Movement, much less so in Hamas, and limited to an isolated wing of the Fatah Movement. They are currently trying to put this objective into effect, but see a direct military confrontation between the Mujahideen and the Palestinian authority as a necessity for its completion.
 
3) Withdrawing Syrian troops from Lebanon and making sure the election in Iraq is successful. This objective is crucial and must precede the next objective.
 
4) Bringing Hezbollah in Lebanon under control.
 
5) Securing all of the oil fields throughout the Gulf area, and all waterways which are possible routes of invasion that must be guarded against reciprocal Iranian attacks in advance of an American military campaign against Iraq.
According to an Al-Qaida think-tank, this last objective will require enormous financial and personnel resources, in addition to the already extensive military presence that is being supported. And this, say Al-Qaida leaders, will surely send the American military budget into bankruptcy. 
 
English Translation ?Jihad Unspun 2005. All Rights Are Reserved.
  
     
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