From: nj [mailto: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> ] 
Sent: Friday, November 18, 2005 12:14 PM 
To: 007KB
Subject: Subject: Quake & Tsunami Predicted In S'pore & M'sia during the
month of December 2005 and January 2006!!! 


Quake and tsunami predicted in S'pore & M'sia 

BANGKOK: Thailand's now iconic meteorologist, Dr Smith Dharmasaroja,who in
Year 1998 predicted a killer tsunami would hit Thailand one day & was
ignored, said S'pore & M'sia were also in danger from a future earthquake
and tsunami. 

"I believe the epicentre of future quakes will shift northwards, north of
the Andaman & Nicobar islands." 

"A big earthquake with a more northerly epicentre than the Dec 26 quake will
generate a tsunami which  will  have a more direct route down to the Straits
of Malacca, swamping S'pore and M'sia." during the month of december 05' and
january 06'. 

"As the sea passage narrows, more water will build up and the wave will
become bigger. S'pore is relatively low-lying & quite flat, and would be
badly affected. Remember,in Dec,the tsunami was 30m high at Banda Aceh. At
Khao Lak,it was 16m high," he said." 

Dr Smith,70,retired as chief of Thailand's Meteorological  Department well
before last Dec's disaster. But before that, he had warned first in a speech
and  then in a memo that Thailand's Andaman coast was at risk from a killer
tsunami. 
 
Tragically his warning, although widely reported by the media, was
ignored.Government officials, fearful of tourists staying away, branded him
a cranky and dangerous man. The authorities in Phuket castigated him & said
he was not welcome to visit. After the tsunami, Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra recalled him and made him the chairman of a committee tasked with
developing a national disaster warning centre and strategy. 

"I'm not happy that I have made the right prediction," he said. "Nobody can
accurately predict an earthquake; you can only assume from historical data,"
he added. He said big natural disasters occur in 80 year to 100 year cycles,
apparently randomly across the world. 

"If you speak out too much, forecast too much, you will get a lot of
criticism, from government agencies, the tourism sector and so forth," he
added. 

Explaining the northward shift of future epicentres, Dr Smith stressed:
"This is no joke. I would like you to put this message out to S'pore and
M'sia." 

A researcher working on the hypothesis, who did not want to be named, said
the research was on-going and final results were not yet ready. 

Dr Smith said: "I have seen the simulations that indicate this and they look
believable. From my own experience, it is possible."Only  a few days ago,
there was a 6.1 quake in the  Andaman sea near the Nicobar islands, which is
about 321.8km north of the Dec 26 quake.  So, this is an  indication that
the epicentre is moving north." 




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