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PAS : KE ARAH PEMERINTAHAN ISLAM YANG ADIL
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KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 27 (AFP) - Malaysia's short-term economic outlook is
bright but the recovery could be
jeopardised by a heavy reliance on foreign investment for growth, a
Societe Generale report said Monday.
A report on Malaysia titled "Economic outlook: an ambiguous picture," by
SG Global Research said that Malaysia's
economic recovery after the 1997 financial crisis was on track for the
short-term.
"Although the short-term picture looks bright with growth led by a buoyant
electronics sector, we still see risks in the
system," it said.
SG said Malaysia's heavy involvement in the electronics industry had been
pivotal in rescuing the economy from
recession.
"With the current drivers in place, we see strong Gross Domestic Product
growth of 6.8 percent in 2000 after the 5.1
percent in 1999," it said, adding that growth was expected to moderate to
4.3 percent in 2001.
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad this month said he expected Malaysia's
gross domestic product (GDP) to grow
five percent or more next year.
SG said a trickledown effect was slowly materialising and this would boost
the domestic economy.
"Personal consumption, in particular, is already reviving strongly," it
said.
The report hailed Malaysia's fairly loose monetary stance that had allowed
the recovery to become entrenched. But
the report also expressed worries about the sustainability of the upturn.
"Our concerns are more longer term. With the economy vitally dependent on
multi-national corporations for growth,
one fear is that heightened political uncertainty may detract from
Malaysia's hitherto excellent status as a destination
for foreign direct investments (FDIs)," it said.
SG also said the environment was "no longer as attractive as it was for
FDI," and there was a question mark over
whether policies were in place to ensure a non-inflationary and
sustainable growth pick-up, or whether the seeds
were being planted for the next crisis.
"We do not see concerted restructuring in the same way as in Korea -- on
the corporate side, or the same
adjustments in the banking system as in Thailand."
"Although there have been steps in the right direction in terms of better
bank supervision and corporate governance,
we still see moral hazard concerns in the next cycle," it said.
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