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>
>
> Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 27 June 2000
> __________________________________________
> Know Your World
> http://www.stratfor.com
> _________________________________________
>
> Chechnya: Is the War Really Over?
>
> Summary
>
> Despite its proclamations of victory, Russia is no closer to
> winning the war in Chechnya than it was six months ago. Col. Gen.
> Gennady Troshev, the military commander for the region, has
> virtually begged for the resources to finish the job. The Kremlin,
> nevertheless, has pulled out troops. In a final effort to alter the
> situation on the ground, Troshev took matters into his own hands on
> June 25 and declared an end to the war. The Russian commander
> appears intent on forcing Moscow to focus on the war, admit loss -
> or sack him and expose a serious political rift in the country's
> military.
>
> Analysis
>
> Russia's military commander in Chechnya has openly challenged both
> the military's general staff and the civilian-run Defense Ministry
> in Moscow over how the campaign is being waged.
>
> In the past two days contradictory statements have emerged from the
> military leadership, making it clear that Col. Gen. Gennady
> Troshev, commander of Russian troops in Chechnya, is trying to
> pressure Moscow into action. Troshev will force Moscow either to
> focus on a war it has largely laid aside, admit a loss - or sack
> the insubordinate commander and risk exposing a rift within the
> military.
>
> Chief of the General Staff Anatoly Kvashnin admitted to the press
> on June 24 that the military had yet to secure its grip on the
> breakaway Chechen republic. The next day, Troshev, who recently
> called on Moscow to end the war, announced that the war was over
> and there would be no more air or artillery attacks against the
> rebels. Nevertheless, in the 24 hours between June 25 and June 26,
> Russian planes and helicopters flew 42 combat missions.
>
> Troshev, stripped of resources and charged with winning a war that
> is no longer a priority for President Vladimir Putin, is facing an
> endless, bloody war. The Chechens staged more than 20 attacks per
> day several days last week, and continue to pose a serious
> challenge to Russian forces.
>
> Meanwhile, Moscow has vacillated in its official decision on
> whether the war is over and has pursued an aimless policy of low-
> grade combat. Approximately half of the original 90,000 troops have
> been sent home. According to Kvashnin, the current Kremlin belief
> is that the war has not been won. And, despite his decision to take
> direct control over the republic, the president has turned little
> apparent attention to the Chechen conflict.
>
> Troshev, traditionally one of the military's most staunch
> proponents of the Chechen war, no longer has even the slightest
> hope of a military victory in Chechnya under these conditions.
> However, he also has no desire to lead a drawn-out mission in
> Chechnya - or be saddled with the blame for a perpetually failing
> campaign. Several weeks ago Troshev made a public statement calling
> for the politicians who started the war to end it - though not by
> negotiations. In other words, he wanted permission to take the
> necessary action to win the war.
>
> When Moscow kept pulling troops out, Troshev realized he was being
> asked to do the impossible. Unable to ensure a military victory, he
> decided to send a message to Moscow by creating a false political
> victory. He declared that the war had been won, the army could go
> home, and only the Interior Ministry troops needed to remain for
> the mopping up operations. His move will finally force Moscow into
> action.
>
> None of the Kremlin's options, however, are appealing. To end the
> war, the Kremlin will either have to negotiate a settlement with
> the Chechens, send adequate troops and supplies back to its troops
> there or fire Troshev and continue the ambiguous status quo. The
> last time Troshev was fired - when he openly criticized the
> Kremlin's three-day cease-fire on Grozny in January - the
> military's support for him was so overwhelming that it would be
> risky for Moscow to fire him again when it needs its troops'
> loyalty.
>
> Surrendering in Chechnya would undermine the image Putin has
> cultivated for himself; it would be political suicide for the man
> who built his presidency and popularity on a strong and
> nationalistic Russia to come so far on the battlefield only to
> effectively hand the republic back to the rebels. Re-deploying to
> Chechnya, although perhaps securing an eventual win, would drag out
> the war and guarantee heavy Russian losses.
>
> Troshev believes he can win the Chechen war, given the resources.
> But since he is being ignored, he is granting Moscow a sort of
> peace in Chechnya in an attempt to force the Kremlin's hand.
>
> _______________________________________________________________
> For more on Chechnya, see:
> http://www.stratfor.com/hotspots/caspian/default.htm
> _______________________________________________________________
>
> (c) 2000 WNI, Inc.
> _______________________________________________
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