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Attack Iraq next? US would have to do it alone
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
THE NEW YORK TIMES
MOSCOW - Anyone in Washington planning to take the war
on terrorism to Iraq after Osama bin Laden is
eliminated should not count on Russia's help - at
least for now. The word here when you ask about
marching on
Baghdad is very simple: 'Nyet.'
In case you missed it,
President Vladimir
Putin of Russia told
The Financial Times
on Monday that the
next priority for the
war on terrorism
should be to 'block
the financing of
terrorist activities'.
He added: 'And so
far I have no
confirmation, no
evidence that Iraq is
financing the terrorists that we are fighting
against.'
Mr Putin is not alone in this view. If one looks at
the core United States' coalition against Osama, what
the different countries have in common is both outrage
at the terror acts in America and their own national
interest in seeing Osama and the Taleban defeated.
When it comes to Iraq, that sense of outrage is
missing for most coalition members, and more
important, their national interests work against a
crusade on Mr Saddam Hussein.
Turkey, which does a big business selling smuggled
Iraqi oil, is concerned that a war in Iraq could lead
to the creation of a Kurdish mini-state in northern
Iraq that would link up with Turkish Kurds.
Saudi Arabia is unnerved by the thought of Iraq being
weakened as the Sunni Arab counterweight to Iran and
the possible creation of an independent Shi'ite
enclave in southern Iraq that would stir up the
Shi'ites
of eastern Saudi Arabia.
Jordan, which is badly infiltrated with Iraqi agents
and depends heavily on trade with Iraq, fears being
destabilised by any war over Baghdad.
Egypt is not eager to see a 'nice' leader in Iraq,
which would fully reintegrate Baghdad into the Arab
state system and enable it to resume its natural
rivalry with Egypt for influence over the Arab world.
Syria would never support a war on Iraq that, if it
succeeded, could lead to Damascus being targeted next.
Russians were never keen on hitting Iraq, but since
the Bush team embarrassed Mr Putin by unilaterally
pulling out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM)
Treaty, both he and the Russians generally seem even
less inclined to help the US attack Baghdad. And
without the Russians, many European and Arab allies
would shy away too.
Said Mr Aleksandr Bovin, a former Russian ambassador
to Israel: 'What America is doing in Afghanistan
corresponds to our interests and understanding of the
situation.
'Iraq is a different matter. We had well-developed
economic ties. We don't want to lose them, and we
don't see any danger now from Iraq...
'I personally don't care for the ABM treaty, but Bush
put Putin in a difficult position that was not
necessary. He scrapped ABM right when Putin was
saying to people here: 'Look, we're friends with the
US now.'
Don't get me wrong. There is no love lost here for Mr
Saddam. The Russians could, at best, be brought around
to what the foreign-affairs analyst Aleksei Pushkov
calls 'a negative neutralism' towards any US
action against Iraq. But the roubles would have to be
sorted out in advance.
Iraq ran up an US$8-billion (S$14.4 billion) debt with
the Soviet Union that Russia wants paid. The Russians
want assurances that Washington will back their view
that this debt was incurred by Iraq, and not just by
Mr
Saddam, in case he is removed and a new Iraqi
government says it is not responsible.
The Russians also want assurances that if a
pro-Western regime is installed in Baghdad, Russian
oil companies will not be frozen out of lucrative oil
exploration there.
Unlike the Taleban, Mr Saddam has real money to buy
off adversaries. Unlike Afghanistan, his country is
strategically critical to all its neighbours,
most of whom fear any change to the status quo. And
unlike Osama, Mr Saddam may not make himself an easy,
obvious target.
That does not mean America cannot, or should not, look
for ways to oust him, but it does mean it should start
by planning to do it alone.
__________________________________________________
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