H-Net* The Saudi Challenge

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February 20, 2002 The Saudi Challenge By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN JIDDA, Saudi Arabia -- I could tell that Saudi Arabia had undergone a big change since I last visited when I checked into the Sheraton Hotel here and the desk clerk was a Saudi. Five years ago, the hotel owner would have been a Saudi but the clerks and key hotel personnel all would have been imported labor from the Philippines, Pakistan or Lebanon. Not anymore. Today, with the oil boom over, the Saudi economy can no longer afford the welfare net that once guaranteed every Saudi a government job. Since 1980 Saudi Arabia's population has exploded from 7 million to 19 million, thanks to one of the highest birth rates in the world and zero family planning. Meanwhile, per-capita oil income has fallen from $19,000, at the height of the oil boom in 1981, to about $7,300 today. With less money trickling down to sustain extended families or bloated government offices, several million Saudis are now unemployed, underemployed or taking jobs they never would have before. To soak up all the unemployed here, Saudi Arabia will have to learn how to drill human oil wells. That is, its crude oil wells built an impressive infrastructure, but they can't sustain the future. Saudi Arabia will be able to thrive only if it can reform its schools to build young people who can innovate and create wealth from their minds — not just from their wells. That means revamping the overcrowded Saudi universities, which right now churn out endless graduates in Islamic studies or liberal arts, but too few with the technical skills a modern economy demands. It also means revamping the Saudi legal system to attract foreign investors to create jobs. That means real transparency, rule of law, independent courts and anti-corruption measures. Without those changes, this country is going to get poorer and poorer, because 40 percent of the population is under 14 — meaning the biggest population bulge hasn't even hit the labor market yet. This could be dynamite. In December an end-of-Ramadan youth brawl erupted on the Jidda coastal road, during which the crowd turned against the police and shouted anti-government and anti-U.S. slogans, leading to some 300 arrests. The good news is that a move was already afoot before Sept. 11 to begin English education — and more teaching about the world beyond the domain of Islam — in the fourth grade instead of the seventh, which will start next year. But with extensive class time devoted here to teaching Islam, often by rote, shifting students to more independent thinking in other areas won't be simple, and already has conservatives grumbling. "We are now in the middle of a major change of our education system," said Khalid al-Awwad, the deputy education minister for curriculum. "It will be based on the idea: Think global, act local." The bad news is that the only top leader of the al-Saud ruling family who has reformist instincts, and is untainted by corruption, is the aging Crown Prince Abdullah. But he is often stymied by his brothers or traditionalists. When the Crown Prince proposed letting women drive — so Saudi Arabia would not have to employ 500,000 expatriate chauffeurs to shuttle women — he was blocked by conservatives. This is also a problem for middle-class Saudis who can't afford chauffeurs. "I have a man who works for me who has three daughters," said a Saudi businessman. "He's constantly having to leave work to drive his daughters home from school or somewhere else. It affects productivity." Imagine being a Saudi man with six daughters and no chauffeur — that's a soccer dad on steroids. Leaders like to make changes here the gradual "Saudi way" to keep the peace, but that may no longer be possible. "You can make people change with time, but do we have the time?" asks Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. "With globalization, I don't think we have time. We are living in a crystal ball now. People see what's happening worldwide on every screen." We have a stake in Saudi success. Almost all of the 15 Saudi hijackers on Sept. 11 came from one of the country's poorer regions, 'Asir, which has recently undergone a rapid but socially disruptive modernization. As one middle-class Saudi put it to me: "The problem here is not Islam. The problem is too many young men with no job and no university and nowhere to go except to the mosque, where some [radical preachers] fill their heads with anger for America. Every home now has two or three not working. This is the real problem."