The Independent (UK) ================ Christopher Bellamy: He may look medieval, but Bin Laden is a modern tactician of rare genius 'Like Genghis Khan, he no longer leads from the front but issues orders that each cell fulfils' 24 September 2001 The scale and audacity of the attacks on New York and Washington on 11 September and the military response which will surely follow will ensure Osama bin Laden's place in the history books if, as appears likely, he was the mastermind. He will join the ranks of history's most infamous men, a notorious politico-military-religious leader who changed the world. For he is a figure almost without precedent, and very much a man of his time. A terrorist tactician of unique genius, he must remain the central target. Some have warned that a heavy military response to the attacks on America will create "thousands of bin Ladens". Thousands of terrorists, maybe. But the kind of malevolent brilliance required to conceive and orchestrate an operation of the magnitude and ingenuity we saw two weeks ago is rare indeed. The cocktail of genes, nurture, expertise, alienation and opportunity that creates a charismatic but malevolent leader like that occurs once a century, if that. In spite of his medieval appearance, Osama bin Laden is a thoroughly modern, phenomenon. Although immensely complex to plan, his attacks were successful because of their simplicity in execution. The attackers turned the achievements of the West's technology and culture - easy air travel, jet aeroplanes, tall buildings - against itself. Mr bin Laden has a degree in civil engineering - which would have come in useful planning the attack - and also understands the working of the computers, financial institutions and, above all, the media. Just look at how the second plane hit the World Trade Centre about 20 minutes after the first, when the planners knew that the cameras would be rolling on the first tower, engulfed in flames. He also has considerable business acumen. The Saudis froze his bank accounts and confiscated his share of the family fortune when they revoked his citizenship in 1994, but he has found other ways of replenishing his coffers. He may get a share of the profits from opium, of which Afghanistan is the world's principal supplier. After he established himself in Sudan, he founded several companies including the Al Shamal Islamic bank and agricultural and construction enterprises. He and his associates use business fronts to transfer money secretly by wire and computer, in spite of the international scrutiny of intelligence agencies. Those who have tracked his career now fear he may launch a devastating cyber-war attack on computer networks - the warfare of the future. The attacks on New York and Washington fulfiled all the predictions made by security experts in recent years. They were "anti-�lite action" - by groups bitter and resentful at US global hegemony, wealth, and cultural dominance. A "non-state actor" - Osama bin Laden - probably orchestrated them from has hideaway in Afghanistan through a loose network of terrorist cells. The scale of the attacks made them equivalent to attack by a weapon of mass destruction - nuclear, biological or chemical. We have long dreaded "super-terrorism", using such weapons, but 160tons of airliner filled with fuel, and precision guided by kamikaze pilots, has a similar effect. The attacks on the twin towers released an amount of energy equivalent to a small nuclear weapon. Not for nothing was the site of the collapsed towers named "ground zero". But Mr bin Laden's genius has not only created terrorist attacks of unprecedented scale, but introduced a new element - synergy. Most terrorist attacks are isolated incidents. With his attacks on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998 and the attacks of two weeks ago, he has shown a military genius's instinct for exploiting the disproportionate effect of attacks on several targets at once, confusing the defenders and paralysing their response. As an innovator and practitioner of asymmetric warfare, Mr bin Laden follows in the tradition of Mao Zedong. Mao traded space for time, and in facing a conventional army looked also to the intangible element of will. Mr bin Laden is unencumbered by the territory of a state, but certainly takes his time. The attacks on the US embassies may have taken five years to plan and those on the US mainland, 10. Mr bin Laden's tactics resemble those of Mao's "war of the flea", although his "fleas" are fearsome. The dog under attack always reacts to the flea-bites, but in lifting his leg to scratch, exposes a part even more vulnerable. In spite of the millions of deaths for which he was responsible, Mao is regarded by many as a great man. The only malevolent genius of recent history to be (almost) universally condemned was a failed artist from Austria, Adolf Hitler. Mr bin Laden's hatred of the US could be likened to Hitler's obsession with the Jews. Like Mr bin Laden, Hitler managed to charm many people into helping him. Using and exploiting the talents of German science and engineering, Hitler had some extraordinary weapons at his disposal. Mr bin Laden's exploitation of the commercially available 21st-century technology is not dissimilar. In the stupendous scale of his operations and his command style, known as "mission command", Mr bin Laden also resembles one other figure from history: Genghis Khan. This Mongol warlord (c. AD1155-1227) built up a network of allies after his father was murdered when he was a boy. By 1206, through skillful negotiation, he had united all the tribes of Mongolia under his rule. He then conquered most of the rest of the known world. Genghis Khan was a great delegator, aided by superb generals such as Subedei and Jebe, whom he would instruct to conquer a given country. He would meet with his generals occasionally, their movements co-ordinated by strict timing. Osama bin Laden, like so many modern terrorists, operates in a similar way. His al-Qa'ida network is believed to have cells in 34 countries. The cells enjoy some autonomy and orders are issued on a strict "need to know" basis. This makes penetration by outside agencies almost impossible. Like Genghis, Mr bin Laden no longer leads from the front, but issues orders that each cell fulfils, building into a grand design that is only understood by the supreme commander. That is, paradoxically, some cause for comfort. If Mr bin Laden is, as he appears to be, a malevolent tactical genius as well as a truly charismatic leader directing cells unaware of each other's activities from afar, his network is likely to be destroyed by his removal. The writer is professor of Military Science and Doctrine at Cranfield University and is associate editor of the 'Oxford Companion to Military History' THE END ==^================================================================ EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?bUrHhl.bVKZIr Or send an email To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] This email was sent to: [email protected] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
