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Article Title: Forex Trend Following System: Problem or Solution
Author: Mark Thomas
Category: Currency Trading
Word Count: 595
Keywords: forex trend following system, money management strategy
Author's Email Address: [email protected]
Article Source: http://www.articlemarketer.com
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Many traders search for a forex trend following system as part of their trading 
repertoire. This can be a solid strategy to approach many different market 
scenarios. However there are also situations where this can be potentially 
dangerous and careful consideration needs to be given to how you approach your 
trading in these situations.

Forex trend following systems frequently work best on the crossover of moving 
averages. The better quality systems will also consider the higher time frame 
in addition to the current time frame. Whenever the higher time frame movement 
is rising, there are potential opportunities in the current time frame to be on 
an ascending movement as well. For example, when the price fluctuates in peaks 
and valleys on the current time frame, there is an opportunity to enter 
immediately after a trough appears.

However there are times when caution needs to be applied with this approach. An 
example is the common situation that occurs when there's an impending Non-Farm 
Payroll (NFP) announcement. There can be significant price movements earlier in 
the week prior to the announcement but the price can then be tightly 
range-bound for the rest of the week. As a result, the higher time frame would 
have shown as an upward trend as it would take into account the large movement 
earlier in the week. Trying to trade minor breaks based on the current time 
frame movement in an upward direction would've resulted in potentially losing 
trades as the price completely stagnated.

This is not an uncommon scenario so those traders using a forex trend following 
system need to consider ways to approach these types of situations. Some 
suggestions are:

* The price will generally consolidate after a big move in either direction. 
We'll often see a currency pair fluctuate over 500 pips in a week but this will 
often consolidate for the following week. When this situation applies, it is 
probably best to avoid any trend following system until you see a new price 
breakout and a fresh trend emerging.

* Be careful with any system that is only based on indicating an 'up trend' or 
'down trend' signal. A good trend following system should also include a 'flat' 
signal to indicate a scenario where your system might not be relevant and 
therefore should not be applied at this time.

* Using a sound money management strategy would deter us from trading 
completely if we've had a string of losing trades. So if we've taken trades on 
consecutive days that are based on our trend following system, and we've 
stopped out for a loss each time, our money management strategy should tell us 
to stop trading until a new price trend emerges. Your strategy could also be 
based around finishing your trading for a specific day if you've incurred a 
predetermined percentage loss of your trading account in that day. If this 
occurs, it is better to take a break and evaluate your trading plan and 
strategies. There will always be opportunities to re-enter the market.

* If you find that your trend following system is not working for you in 
certain situations then make sure you identify and record these situations for 
future reference. At this time it might be worth considering a more appropriate 
system such as one that might be more relevant for markets that are 
consolidating or correcting.

So keep in mind that a good forex trend following system is not the answer to 
all possible trade situations. While it is a valuable tool to have in your 
trading toolkit, you still need to be aware of the right times to apply it.

Mark Thomas is the creator of Trade on Track - a secure web-based application 
that allows traders to track, analyze, and improve their trading. Visit 
http://www.tradeontrack.com for more information on how to take your trading 
and profits to the next level.
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