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Artikel posting mas Budhi dibawah menarik karena berhubungan dengan kapan energi alternatif betul2 dibutuhkan, seperti yang pernah diskusikan beberapa waktu yang lalu. Data-data jumlah cadangan proven maupun yang possible negara2 produsen minyak memang menunjukan masih banyak persedian minyak dunia dan masih lama sebelum habis. Bahkan negara2 penghasil minyakpun bertambah jumlahnya, dan jumlah lapangan minyak yang ditemukanpun sekarang lebih dari 41 ribu, meskipun hanya 370 lapangan yang memiliki cadangan lebih dari 500 juta barel. Namun dibalik ini semua, ada hal2 yang menarik untuk disimak terutama dari sisi produksi. Sekitar 33 juta barel minyak yang diproduksi per hari, atau hampir setengah dari produksi dunia, dihasilkan oleh "hanya" 120 lapangan2 yang masuk dalam katagori "giant" dalam hal ini yang memiliki cadangan lebih dari 1 billion barel. Dari lapangan2 tersebut, 14 diantaranya memproduksi lebih dari 20% supply dunia, dengan umur rata2 ke 14 lapangan ini adalah 43.5 tahun !! Dari 36 lapangan "giant" yang ditemukan lebih dari 40 tahun lalu, sampai sekarang masih bisa memproduksi hampir 16 juta barel perhari, bandingkan dengan 12 lapangan2 giant yang ditemukan 10 tahun terakhir, yang bisa memproduksi hanya sekitar 1.5 juta barel perhari atau hanya 2% dari supply dunia. Lapangan2 giant yang ditemukan 50 tahun terakhir semakin kecil baik cadangan maupun tingkat produksinya. Dari 20-25 lapangan giant baru yang sedang atau akan dikembangkan, tidak ada yang memiliki daily production melebihi 250 ribu barel per hari. Padahal teknik explorasi dan produksi minyak saat ini sangat sarat dengan teknologi. Bandingkan dengan 19 lapangan giant "tua" yang masih memproduksi rata2 diatas 500 juta barel perhari, meski dengan umur rata2 yang lebih dari 70 tahun ! Di tahun 90'an saja ada sekitar 400 lapangan baru yang ditemukan, namun hanya 2.5% yang sekarang berproduksi lebih dari 100 ribu barel perhari. Dalam kurun waktu 2 dasawarsa terakhir, hanya ada 3 lapangan dengan katagori "giant" yang ditemukan yang bisa berproduksi lebih dari 200 ribu barel perhari. Itupun discovery ketiganya di tahun 1980-an, yaitu Marlim (530 ribu barel perhari, di Brazil), Cusiana (300 ribu barel perhari, di Columbia), dan lapangan Draugen (215 ribu barel perhari, di Norway). Begitupula dengan berbagai proyek deepwater, hanya ada beberapa yang kelak bisa mencapai produksi sekitar 250 ribu barel perhari. Memang kalau dilihat dari sisi cadangan, jumlah reserves sekarang ini cukup banyak, seperti posting mas Budhi, cukup untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dunia selama 60 tahun lagi, meskipun tanpa kegiatan explorasi dan penemuan2 baru. Tapi permasalahannya sekarang, apakah lapangan2 yang ada sekarang ini bisa menggantikan peran lapangan2 "tua" yang meskipun jumlahnya sedikit tapi kontribusinya cukup signifikan terhadap kebutuhan minyak dunia ? Meskipun sekarang ini kita memakai teknologi yang paling canggih sekalipun dan semakin banyaknya pakar didunia perminyakan, mungkin akan susah. Yang sudah pasti tidak semua lapangan2 tua tadi, seperti lapangan Ghawar di Saudi misalnya yang mungkin saja masih bisa berproduksi 100 tahun lagi, cepat atau lambat suatu saat lapangan2 giant dan tua tersebut pasti akan depleted. Yang menjadi pertanyaan adalah kapan peak production dari lapangan2 ini dan seberapa besar decline ratenya ? Kalau saja decline ratenya cepat seperti lapangan2 di North Sea atau Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, dan jika trend penemuan lapangan2 baru dewasa ini lebih kecil dibandingkan 50 tahun yang lalu, maka akan dibutuhkan ribuan lapangan baru untuk mengantikan ketergantungan kita terhadap lapangan2 giant tua yang signifikan tadi. Pada saat itu mungkin dunia akan menyaksikan drilling boom untuk menutupi supply yang berkurang. Dilain pihak, mungkin inilah saatnya berbagai energi alternatif untuk berkembang. Dimanakah posisi Indonesia dalam mencukupi kebutuhan energi dimasa mendatang ? Mungkinkah kita menemukan lapangan2 Duri lainnya ? Mungkinkah kita menambah jumlah cadangan kita yang 5 BBOE, atau sekitar 9 kalau termasuk possible dan probable ? Mungkinkah kita menaikkan tingkat produksi kita yang 1.2 mmboe dan semakin turun ini ? Untuk rekan2 di IAGI-Net,.. apakah artinya senior2 kita dimasa lalu lebih pintar dan lebih berani, risk taker dan mempraktekan "out of the box thinking" dalam explorasi dan berhasil menemukan lebih banyak lapangan2 giant ? Kita2 sekarang cenderung menjadi "kutu" teknologi ? atau memang lapangan2 giant sudah ditemukan semua ?? Apa mungkin yang disebut Riva (OG Journal, Jan 1988) benar "... most oil is contained in a few large fields, but most fields are small...as exploration progresses, the average size of the fields discovered decreases as does the amount of oil found per unit of exploratory drilling. In any region, the large fields are the biggest targets and are usually discovered first." wass.w.w. Bambang Istadi ConocoPhillips Inc. +1-281-293-3763 -----Original Message----- From: Swastioko, Budhi [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Thursday, September 05, 2002 3:18 AM To: 'Milis Migas Indonesia' Subject: [Oil&Gas] Oil Supplies -- Are We Really Running Out of Oil In a sense, we are always running out of oil. Because oil is a limited resource, each barrel we produce brings us one step closer to the upper limit of oil which can be extracted. However, we're also running into oil, discovering new reserves and developing technologies which will help us extract more from known fields. More important, it's unlikely that our demand will ever exceed or use up our supply. As supplies grow scarce, oil prices will begin to rise, and people will turn to a more abundant, less expensive alternative. In the near term, with oil products both economical and practical, alternatives will find it hard to compete. The shift, when it comes, won't happen overnight, because oil supplies -- both conventional and unconventional -- are substantial. Moreover, the change is likely to be as painless a transition as when people switched from wood to coal to heat their homes or substituted computers for typewriters to prepare letters and documents. That's why government subsidies and mandates intended to help the nation move to approved alternatives -- to "anticipate change" -- are unnecessary. Government isn't needed to do what the market can and will do better and more cheaply. World reserves are substantial World reserves are greater now than ever before. Even if we never discover another drop of oil, current reserves will be able to sustain the current rate of oil consumption for another half-century. In 1993, the world's proved reserves were estimated to be just under a trillion barrels -- about a 45-year supply of oil, based on current rates of consumption. This estimate represents a working inventory of the world's supply at a single moment in time. Taking into account probable future oil discoveries, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that between 1.4 trillion and 2.1 trillion barrels of oil remain to be produced worldwide. This amount of oil would sustain the current rate of consumption between 63 to 95 years. To be more specific, there is a 95-percent possibility that the world's remaining oil resources could last 63 more years and a 5-percent chance that the world's resources will last another 95 years at recent rates of consumption. However, any estimate of oil reserves is somewhat uncertain. These predictions are based on current demand for petroleum products. There is no surefire way to predict future demand, although some experts predict that demand for oil will grow somewhere between 1 and 2 percent annually. Technological progress forestalls exhaustion Our oil supply also depends critically on technology. The amount of resources remaining is fixed, but only in the way that a rubber band is fixed. The world's production capacity can be expanded with better technology. New exploration techniques are already improving the scope and success of offshore drilling operations, adding to the world's known resources. For example, in 1965, the petroleum industry's drilling capabilities limited offshore wells to waters less than 300 feet deep. Today, the industry drills for oil in waters as deep as 3,000 feet. One new technology is three-dimensional seismic analysis. Using traditional seismic analysis, the industry successfully completed just over 40 percent of new wells. With 3-D seismic analysis, that success rate has risen to over 70 percent. Such advances are crucial to the lifespan of the world's oil supply, because every 1 percent increase in the industry's average recovery rate can add between 60 billion and 80 billion barrels to resource estimates. That's enough to last three to four years, based on current rates of consumption. And, if economically feasible ways to extract and refine unconventional sources of oil are found, our oil supply could be extended for hundreds of years. A large part of the world's remaining resources is found in the form of oil shales, heavy and extra heavy oils and bitumins. These unconventional resources are equal in volume to ten times the amount of recoverable conventional oil resources that remain. Challenges are ahead The good news is that world oil resources are abundant, and, if anything, are likely to become more so with new discoveries and changes in technology. However, major new investment will be needed to translate this potential into production -- and, in most of the world's largest producing countries, there has been stagnation or deterioration in the investment climate. That's because, at home as well as abroad, barriers stand in the way of full resource extraction. At home, the area that has been called "the best single opportunity to increase significantly domestic oil production" by the U.S. Department of the Interior -- the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge -- is closed to drilling, despite the fact that the department found that there is a 46-percent chance of discovering economically recoverable oil, possibly totaling several billion barrels. And internationally, institutional and other barriers threaten the realization of full production potential. For example, in Russia, ambiguous property rights and political turmoil add risks. Oil developed in the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union must be transported through volatile or politically hostile territory in order to reach its destination. Political volatility also remains an obstacle to new investment in the Middle East. Territorial disputes, shifting alliances and issues of succession cloud the future of investments in this crucial region. =============================================================== Forum Diskusi dan Komunikasi Komunitas Industri se-Indonesia Homepage : http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Migas_Indonesia Portal Industri : http://www.migas-indonesia.com Post Message : [EMAIL PROTECTED] Moderator : [EMAIL PROTECTED] =============================================================== !!! 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