Netters,
Di bawah ini material yang akan lewat meja Amb Ralph Boyce (US Ambassador)
ke Washington readers dalam beberapa hari ini. Beberapa angka mungkin
akan berubah karena ada beberapa data baru yang masuk, tetapi kesimpulannya tetap:
Indonesia has became a
net oil importer in 2003!! At least that's what the data says, meskipun kalo tanya Pak
Kwik Kian Gie Indonesia sudah jadi net oil importer sejak tahun 2001.
Salam, Agnes
SUBJECT: Indonesia Becomes A Net Oil Importer
Ref: (a) Jakarta 3406 (Oil Production Down Eight Percent)
(b) Jakarta 1589 (South Sumatra-West Java Pipeline)
(c) 03 Jakarta 9432 (Natural Gas Developments)
1. (SBU) Summary: After years of speculation and warning, Indonesia became a net oil
importer in 2003. According to the most reliable statistics available, the country
edged into importer status by an average 2,000 barrels per day last year. Declining
gross production, increased domestic growth and fuel demand, combined with a limited
refining capacity, are the primary reasons for this shift. With little prospect of
increasing oil production in the near term (ref a), Indonesia must expand its refining
capacity and move away from expensive fuel oil power generation in order to regain its
net export status. These steps will require substantial financing, an improved
investment climate and political will. End summary.
Shift to Net Import Status
--------------------------
2. (SBU) According to data from the Energy Ministry�s Directorate for Oil and Gas
(MIGAS), Indonesia became a marginal net oil importer in 2003. Although official
economic data in Indonesia can vary widely depending on the source, we believe the
MIGAS figures are the most accurate available for oil and gas data. MIGAS provided us
copies of the 2003 monthly summaries for crude oil, condensate and refined product
import and export volumes. These charts showed that Indonesia�s oil trade balance
shifted from 41.7 million barrels in net exports in 2002 to 677,000 barrels in net
imports in 2003. This equals a narrow net import balance of about 1,800 barrels of
oil per day (bopd).
Where Have All the Barrels Gone?
--------------------------------
3. (SBU) The following shows the country�s narrowing import and export gap for crude,
condensate and refined oil products over the past four years (in millions of barrels):
2000 2001 2002 2003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Exports
-Crude/Cond 223.50 241.61 217.27 194.08
-Refined 67.08 55.12 55.49 56.35
Total 290.58 296.73 272.76 250.43
Imports
-Crude/Cond 79.98 112.88 124.15 137.13
-Refined 90.01 89.62 106.93 113.98
Total 169.99 202.50 231.08 251.11
Balance
-Crude/Cond 143.52 128.73 93.13 56.96
-Refined -22.92 -34.50 -51.44 -57.64
Net Exports 120.58 94.23 41.69 -.68
Source: Directorate General for Oil and Gas (MIGAS)
Oil Trade Balance Goes Negative
-------------------------------
4. (U) Not surprisingly, Indonesia�s oil trade balance became negative in 2003 as
well. Indonesia enjoyed a positive crude oil and refined product trade balance of
over $1.4 billion in 2001. However, this slipped to $14 million in 2002 and became a
negative trade balance of $340 million in 2003. For refined oil products only,
Indonesia had a negative trade balance of over $2 billion in 2003. The following
table illustrates the country�s declining fortunes (in millions US$):
2001 2002 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Export Value
-Crude/Cond 5714.4 5227.6 5621.0
-Refined 1189.4 1307.4 1548.6
Total 6903.8 6535.0 7169.6
Import Value
-Crude/Cond 2887.6 3216.9 3927.5
-Refined 2574.1 3303.9 3582.9
Total 5461.7 6520.8 7510.4
Net Trade Balance
-Crude/Cond 2826.8 2010.7 1693.5
-Refined -1384.7 -1996.5 -2034.3
Total 1442.1 14.2 -340.8
Source: Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI)
Reasons for the Shift
---------------------
5. (U) The simple law of supply and demand accounts for the shift. Indonesia�s own
crude oil production has declined with no changes in its refining capacity, while
domestic fuel consumption rises steadily. Between 1990-2000, domestic fuel oil
consumption increased by an average 8.5 percent annually. The Energy Ministry
estimates that fuel oil consumption, currently 1.08 million barrels of oil equivalent
per day (boepd), will continue to rise by over 5 percent per annum between now and
2010. However, Indonesia�s refining installed capacity remains stagnant at 1.057
million boepd. Actual refining output averaged 927,300 boepd last year. The country
imported greater amounts of crude oil and refined products in 2003 � an average
312,000 boepd � to fill the widening gap between supply and demand.
More Refining Capacity Needed
-----------------------------
6. (U) Expanding the country�s refining capacity will be the key factor in reducing
petroleum imports and restoring Indonesia�s net exporter status. The GOI has not
increased its refining capacity since 1994, when it built the state-owned Balongan
refinery in West Java. Plans to build a large refinery at Tuban, East Java stalled
during the economic crisis. However, the government initiated two reforms to
liberalize the downstream sector. First, Presidential Decree 31/1997 loosened
state-owned petroleum company Pertamina�s hold on refining by allowing private
refineries to market some products, though Pertamina remained the sole distributor of
domestic market fuel. Second, Oil and Gas Law 22/2001 eliminates Pertamina�s
downstream monopoly position in 2005 by allowing local and private investors to
participate in refined product processing, transport, storage and marketing. However,
the GOI has yet to issue implementing regulations to clarify the actual costs and
benefits
of downstream participation that might attract investment.
Reduce Reliance on Fuel Oil for Power
-------------------------------------
7. (U) Indonesia can reduce fuel imports as well by decreasing its reliance on fuel
oil for power generation. Domestic fuel consumption by oil-fired power plants has
jumped 55 percent since 2000. The electricity sector now accounts for 14 percent of
the Indonesia�s domestic fuel use. Put another way, over 30 percent of the country�s
power generation comes from fuel oil. State-owned electric company PLN admits that
imported products fuel the additional generation, rather than making use of its
abundant domestic natural gas reserves. Not only does this increase the country�s
reliance on fuel imports, but it is expensive too. PLN�s power production cost for
fuel oil is three times as high as natural gas � approximately $6.00 per megawatt hour
(mwH) vice $2.00/mwH.
8. (U) Accordingly, the GOI has taken steps to reduce fuel oil use by the power
sector. This year, work should begin on the $900 million South Sumatra-West Java gas
pipeline (ref b), which will provide natural gas to Jakarta-area power plants
currently running on fuel oil. PLN will also sign gas sales agreements with U.S.
company Amerada Hess and Australia�s Santos this year to increase gas supplies for the
power sector and industry in East Java. Finally, PLN hopes to build a $300 million
liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminal in West Java by 2007. The terminal
could receive LNG from BP�s planned Tangguh LNG facility. As noted in ref (c),
however, Indonesia�s weak investment climate hinders the country�s ability to attract
financing for energy projects.
Comment
-------
9. (SBU) Indonesia�s shift to net oil importer was inevitable, given oil production
declines and growing domestic fuel demand. However, the timing is unfortunate �
Energy Minister Purnomo assumed the rotating presidency of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in January. The GOI has not yet published its
official oil import/export figures for 2003, so the change to net importer is not
generally known. When the information is made public, we expect strong (but
short-lived) criticism of the government for allowing such a resource-rich nation to
become dependent on foreign oil. Whether this criticism will translate into corrective
action is another matter. It will take political will � lacking heretofore - to
establish a regulatory framework and investment climate that turns Indonesia�s oil
industry around.
Boyce
--
--------- Original Message ---------
DATE: Wed, 21 Apr 2004 14:39:48
From: Prasiddha Hestu Narendra <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc:
>*This message was transferred with a trial version of CommuniGate(tm) Pro*
>
>
>bagi yang mau akses PETROLEUM REPORT Indonesia: 2002 - 2003 versi Amrik
>bisa diakses di
>www.usembassyjakarta.org.
>kalo yg mau file pdfnya boleh saya punya
>
>The intent of this report is to provide a summary of Indonesia's oil and
>gas sector in an effort to
>assist government policy makers and private sector companies better
>understand this important
>market. The regional financial crisis of 1997-98, from which Indonesia is
>only now recovering,
>highlights the importance of this sector to the Indonesian economy.
>The report does not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Government.
>The Embassy has
>attempted to obtain the most accurate data from Indonesian Government
>sources. However,
>statistics drawn from different sources often display inconsistencies. This
>is the case between
>several tables in the appendices. To the extent possible, we have tried to
>indicate the source of
>the information. However, trends can be accurately depicted by observing
>data within a given
>table. This report uses an exchange rate of Rp 8,400 to one U.S. dollar,
>unless otherwise
>indicated. Finally, statistics are often revised at a later date. The
>Embassy plans to publish a
>mid-year supplement to this report, containing end of year oil and gas data
>for 2003.
>This Petroleum Report is issued every other year. The Embassy will publish
>mid-year
>supplements to this report, containing final oil and gas data from the
>previous calendar year. The
>full report is also available on the U.S. Embassy website,
>www.usembassyjakarta.org.
>
>
>salam,
>PR
>
>
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