Syukurlah, ternyata sudah ada yang bisa prediksi dengan sangat tepat. Semoga akan berkurang korban-korban gempa berikutnya.
Sungguh tragis. Telah ada yang memperkirakan korban gempa Aceh, lebih dari 27 ribu orang. Jumlah ini melebihi total jumlah gempa di Indonesia selama 100 tahun terkhir, 20.000 orang, catatan USGS. Semoga ada usaha kuat untuk menurunkan, atau malah meniadakan korban-korban (gempa) berikutnya. Rata-rata 10 gempa besar per tahun di bumi pada seratus tahun kedepan. Sejumlah 3.5 % dari total gempa seratus tahun terakhir ada di Indonesia. Atau prediksi akan 35 gempa besar di Indonesia next 100 th. Jumlah presentasi ini mungkin sama besar dengan perbandingan panjang sirkum Pasifik-Medeteran yang ada di Indonesia terhadap panjang keseluruhannya. Tanggal berapa saja gempa-gempa Alor, Nabire? Dan jam berapa? Apakah ada di bulan purnama, atau bulan mati, seperti prediksi John T. Norberg? Apakah terjadi pada pagi pergantian malam ke siang (pagi antara 5:00-8:00) ? MYT. -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, December 29, 2004 4:48 AM To: [email protected] Subject: RE: [iagi-net-l] gempa Kalau melihat artikel dibawah ini sebenarnya gempa di Aceh tsb sudah ada yang memprediksi. Mungkin ada yang bisa menjelaskan..., mengapa hal ini luput dari pihak2 yang berhubungan dengan masalah gempa ini. Wassalam, yd.. ---------- http://newstodaynet.com/27DEC/SS6.HTM Some knew it was coming E SARAVANAN Chennai, Dec 27: N Venkatanath, research scholar, and N Rajeshwara Rao, research supervisor, Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras. The memories and the trauma caused by the tidal wave that washed out parts of coastal Chennai and other parts of the State yesterday will haunt the minds of the people for a long time to come. It is a tough task to forget the damage left behind by the wave that was triggered by an earthquake in far off Indonesia. The Richter scale recorded the quake to be in the magnitude of 9.0. What is so mysterious about the earthquake and the subsequent tidal wave? Cannot it be predicted earlier and the people be warned of it? Could necessary precautions be taken to minimise the loss to life and property? In fact, the quake was actually predicted by a team of research scholars of the Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras, with a permissible error, a week ago. N Venkatanathan, research scholar, who is currently undergoing a Ph.D programme in Predicting Earthquake and Aseismic Construction Designing and the man behind the team working on predictions, said he had already presented a report about the Indonesian earthquake on 22 December to members of the Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi. The 15-member team headed by S K Tandan were in Chennai at that time for a meeting. Venkatanathan, said, 'we predicted that the disaster will occur on 26 December 2004 at 00:30 (GMT) with 3.54 N latitude and 97.17E longitude, which is located near the coast of Banyak Island, Sumatra, Indonesia, with a magnitude at around 6 to 7. The actual calamity occurred on 26 December 2004 at 00:58 (GMT), with 3.298 N latitude and 95.779 E longitude, located off the west coast of northern Sumatra'. The difference in distance between the predicted place and the epicentre was 157.11899 km with a time difference of 28 minutes. He also said the team had predicted that the after-shocks would occur at 700 km to the South of the epicentre between 5 pm and 6 pm. This was recorded with permissible error. It occurred at 157 km from the epicentre. That is with the error of 521 km. Venkatanathan and his guide N Rajeshwara Rao, research supervisor as he calls him, admit that 'we didn't expect the extent of damage it will cause to the Tamilnadu coast, since we expected the magnitude might be around 7.0, which cannot damage Tamilnadu. We never expected the consequent tidal waves that would have such a devasting effect on the coastal areas of Tamilnadu, admitted Rajeshwara Rao. Venkatanathan explained that the prediction was based on a novel method developed by the team. According to the method, when two or more planets, Sun and the Moon get aligned more or less in line (0 to 180 degree) with the earth it could affect the angular momentum of the earth and decrease the speed of rotation of the earth which could trigger an earthquake. But in order to trigger an earthquake in one particular place, two conditions should be taken into consideration, said Venkatanathan. One is the distance of the planetary configurations and two the directions of force acting at the possible epicenter. Venkatanathan also clarified that by analysing the earthquakes that had occurred over the last 100 years, it was inferred that there was a role of planetary configurations in triggering earthquakes. He added that the team had earlier predicted possibility of earthquake occurrences at 27 places, among which Assam was one, and presented a report at the International Conference of 'Hazards 2004' held at National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad. He said the success of the prediction rate achieved so far was around 75 to 80 per cent within a time-frame of plus or minus three to four days. Rajeshwara Rao said, 'we are in the process of refining the technique so as to achieve a better success rate for which we should have a network of inputs from various international research organisations. For this to happen there was a need for large-scale funding, which could be done through the Government. He said with these things in mind, the department had already submitted a proposal to the Tamilnadu government to establish a Centre for Earthquake and Natural Hazards Studies (CENHAS). The department had also submitted proposals for collaborative programmes with Bulgaria and Uzbekistan through the Department of Science and Technology (DST), New Delhi. http://www.telegraphindia.com/1041227/asp/nation/story_4179143.asp Scientist words ring true OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT Chennai, Dec. 26: As India mourned, a group of people at Madras University's Applied Geology department could barely hide their glee. December 26, Sumatra, 03.54 degrees latitude and 097.17 degrees longitude - a team of seismologists led by Dr N. Rajeshwara Rao and N. Venkatanathan had predicted. The forecast was near perfect. Flaunting the relevant information downloaded from the site of the World Data Center for Seismology, Denver, Venkatanathan said the data put out by the US Geological Survey read: "December 26, 2004, off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra, 03.298 degrees latitude and 095.779 degrees longitude." "We had predicted the earthquake in Sumatra as occurring at 6 am this morning, but it happened there at 6.29 am. And there was a 150 km difference in the distance from where we had predicted," added Venkatanathan, whose recent prediction about an earthquake had kept most of Jorhat, Assam, on the roads early this month. He said their earthquake prediction model could be fine-tuned if there was more actual data on the physical characteristics of an area from remote sensing satellite maps. They went wide off the mark when it came to the magnitude of the quake. They didn't expect the Sumatra tremors to be stronger that 7 on the Richter scale, but they were recorded at 8.9. Therefore, the tremors were felt as far as Chennai, some 1,700 km away, "disturbing the total tectonic setting", said Venkatanathan. The researcher and his colleagues use a predictive model, based on the position and alignment of various planets with the earth. Four heavenly bodies - Mercury, Venus, Sun and Moon - had aligned with the Earth today, he said. As the researchers rejoiced, some are speaking of celestial retribution. One contention going around is that the Gods are angry that the Kanchi seer has been jailed. --------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To subscribe, send email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id IAGI-net Archive 1: http://www.mail-archive.com/iagi-net%40iagi.or.id/ IAGI-net Archive 2: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/iagi Komisi Sedimentologi (FOSI) : F. Hasan Sidi([EMAIL PROTECTED])-http://fosi.iagi.or.id Komisi SDM/Pendidikan : Edy Sunardi([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Karst : Hanang Samodra([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Sertifikasi : M. Suryowibowo([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi OTODA : Ridwan Djamaluddin([EMAIL PROTECTED] atau [EMAIL PROTECTED]), Arif Zardi Dahlius([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Database Geologi : Aria A. Mulhadiono([EMAIL PROTECTED]) --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To subscribe, send email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id IAGI-net Archive 1: http://www.mail-archive.com/iagi-net%40iagi.or.id/ IAGI-net Archive 2: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/iagi Komisi Sedimentologi (FOSI) : F. Hasan Sidi([EMAIL PROTECTED])-http://fosi.iagi.or.id Komisi SDM/Pendidikan : Edy Sunardi([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Karst : Hanang Samodra([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Sertifikasi : M. Suryowibowo([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi OTODA : Ridwan Djamaluddin([EMAIL PROTECTED] atau [EMAIL PROTECTED]), Arif Zardi Dahlius([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Database Geologi : Aria A. Mulhadiono([EMAIL PROTECTED]) ---------------------------------------------------------------------
