Hallo pak Danny,
Waktu seminar ttg tsunami di Padang waktu itu ada issu ttg rencana
pembangunan lapangan terbang yang baru ke arah pantai yang tentunya akan
menjadi semakin berresiko terkena dampak tsunami dibanding dg lokasi
sekarang di Tabing yang jauh dari pantai. Tentunya ini menyangkut master
plan daerah tsb dan dalam hubungannya dg 'kesesuain geologi dan lingkungan'
master plan tsb sebaiknya di tinjau ulang. Pengalaman di Aceh setelah
tsunami, proses evakuasi dan rehabilitasi dpt dilakukan dg relatif cepat
karena dukungan lapangan terbang yang masih berfungsi. Mohon disampaikan
masukan ini ke pihak berwenang yang berhubungan dg master plan daerah tsb.
(Pusat Studi Tsunami, Teknik Sipil Univ. Andalas ?). Sekedar mengingatkan.
Salam
Budi Satrio
"D.H.
Natawidjaja" To: <[email protected]>,
"'Himpunan Ahli Geofisika
<[EMAIL PROTECTED] Indonesia (HAGI)'" <[EMAIL
PROTECTED]>
pi.go.id> cc:
Subject: RE: [iagi-net-l] Strong
quakes 'imminent' off
10/06/2005 12:42 Sumatra
PM
Please respond
to iagi-net
Halo Pak Rovicky,
Ya, yang dimaksud oleh Dr. McCloskey adalah segmen zona subduksi
Mentawai yang sudah sering kita seminarkan itu ke masyarakat waktu
program IAGI Januari-Februari kemarin. Segmen Nias yang meledak Maret
kemarin itu juga sudah kita warningkan ke publik waktu seminar di Medan
(awal Februari (?) lalu) juga di G. Sitoli Nias awal Maret (Oleh Hariadi
Permana Cs).
Reaksi masyarakat Padang (Sumbar) terhadap persiapan apabila terjadi
gempa besar dan tsunami dari Mentawai sangat positip. Sudah banyak
langkah nyata yang dilakukan oleh mereka, baik dari pihak pemerintahan
ataupun swasta.
Misalnya, kita sudah terlibat pembicaraan dengan pihak swasta dan
sesepuh Sumbar (termasuk Pak Emil Salim). Kita dengan bantuan peta
topografi detil dari pihak swasta dan PU Padang sudah membuat perkiraan
sebaran daerah bahaya tsunami. Hasilnya, mereka sekarang sudah membuat
peta jalur evakuasi apabila terjadi tsunami. Kepala PU-nya juga katanya
berencana akan memperlebar dan membuat jalan raya untuk jalur evakuasi.
Pak Febrin dari Unan, ahli geoteknik, sekarang sudah mulai
meng-inventarisasi bangunan-bangunan mana di Padang yang akan atau tidak
tahan apabila digoncang gempa nanti. Hotel BumiMinang juga sudah
membuat pengumuman umum untuk prosedur evakuasi Hotel apabila ada gempa
besar, dll. Di AirBAngis, masyarakat sana malah sudah menyiapkan
barak-barak di bukit untuk persiapan ngungsi.
Jadi mudah-mudahan perkembangan ini benar-benar akan banyak
menyelamatkan jiwa. Dan SumBAr bisa menjadi contoh tauladan dunia
nantinya dalam masalah mengantisipasi bencana alam. Ten
Pada tanggal 11 Juni ini rencananya akan ada latihan evakuasi
masyarakat. Di salah satu wilayah Kota Padang yang melibatkan masyarakat
dan anak sekolah.
Ada pihak IAGI yang ingin terlibat/hadir dalam acara ini?
Salam,
Danny Hilman N
-----Original Message-----
From: Rovicky Dwi Putrohari [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Thursday, June 09, 2005 10:26 PM
To: [email protected]; Himpunan Ahli Geofisika Indonesia (HAGI)
Subject: [iagi-net-l] Strong quakes 'imminent' off Sumatra
Apakah ini sama dengan segmen mentawai yg diduga Pak Danny itu, atau
yang lain, atau .... Ada yg bisa kasi penjelasan ?
Please,
Pak Wahyu, Pak Danny ... ??
RDP
http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Strong-quakes-imminent-off-Sumatra/2
005/06/09/1118123928000.html?oneclick=true
==================================
Strong quakes 'imminent' off Sumatra
By Richard Macey
June 9, 2005 - 10:55AM
Graphic: Nathaneal Scott
A scientist who predicted the second Indonesian earthquake fears a
third devastating jolt, powerful enough to cause another major
tsunami, is "imminent".
The waves could sweep north-western Australia, reaching as far as Perth.
John McCloskey, of the University of Ulster, said building the Indian
Ocean tsunami warning system was "an urgent priority".
"Don't take the foot off the gas. This is very urgent work."
In mid March, Professor McCloskey warned that the Boxing Day quake,
which triggered the tsunami that killed 300,000 people, had shifted
tectonic stresses to another spot on Sumatra's geological fault line.
He predicted a second strong quake, noting many did not believe
lightning could strike twice. "But with earthquakes it's exactly the
opposite ... I quite honestly hope we're completely wrong."
He wasn't. The second quake, measuring 8.3, struck on March 28 near
the Simeulue and Nias islands, killing 2000 people.
In a new study, published in Nature, Professor McCloskey's team
reports that "stresses imposed by the second rupture have brought
closer to failure" another zone "immediately to the south, under the
Batu and Mentawai islands".
"The historical record and the experience of the Sumatra-Andaman and
Simeulue-Nias events indicate that a tsunami could be a possibility."
Professor McCloskey told the Herald it would likely strike near the
Mentawai islands, triggering a repeat performance of the 8.5 quake of
1833. "The 1833 earthquake is probably a reasonable model. It did
trigger a tsunami and there were many casualties. That's the type of
earthquake we fear it definitely could be."
Professor McCloskey noted that the 1833 tsunami reached north-western
Australia. Next time "the waves would be felt in Perth," he said,
adding he could not say how strong they would be.
It was impossible to say when it would happen, but the evidence,
including historical data, showed it could be within 30 years,
following the pattern of the 1833 and 1861 Sumatra quakes.
"It may be sooner. We must assume it's imminent and behave
accordingly. We can't bury our heads in the sand."
Commenting on his last prediction, Professor McCloskey said: "I've
very mixed feelings."
He had "a sense of professional satisfaction that our science has
started to understand well" earthquakes. "I hope I am wrong this time,
but I don't think so. It's not something you get any pleasure out of
... even though with the last one we were very accurate."
While a "high tech" warning system would protect people around the
Indian Ocean, there would be no time to alert Sumatra. A program was
needed to teach them how to save themselves.
"People need to plan what to do in Sumatra when they feel the earth
shake. You have 15 to 20 minutes to get yourself into a position safe
from the tsunami."
--
Education can't stop natural disasters from occurring,
but it can help people prepare for the possibilities ---
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