Duh akhirnya aku disuruh ngitung sendiri soal Stat 101 ini,
The real case adalah sbb
A. POS = 0.9 Reserves 18 MMBO
B. POS = 0.75 R = 7 MMBO
C. POS = 0.68 R = 6 MMBO
D. POS = 0.68 R = 5 MMBO
E. POS = 0.38 R = 15 MMBO
Cut off economic 20 MMBO, kmudian saya ambil 3 terkecil jadi perlu at
least 3 reservoir success. Walupun sebenernya at least 20 MMBO bisa
saja hanya dr 2 utk mempermudah.
Nah ada yg mau nyeleseiin sampai detil dengan cut off reservesnya ?
Penyeleseian paling 3 3 success:
Notation:
Uppercase = Succes, lowercase = Failed
i.e., P[A] = 0.9 therefore P[a] = (1-0.9) = 0.1
5 succes: ABCDE
4 succes: aBCDE AbCDE ABcDE ABCdE ABCDe ==> (5!)/(4!)(1!) = 5
3 succes: abCDE aBcDE aBCdE .... ==> (5!)/(3!)(2!) = 10
P[5 succes] = 0.9 X 0.75 X 0.68 X 0.68 X 0.38
P[4 succes] = [(1-0.9) X 0.75 X 0.68 X 0.68 X 0.38]
+ [0.9 X (1-0.75) X 0.68 X 0.68 X 0.38]
+ .....
P[3 succes] = [(1-0.9) X (1-0.75) X 0.68 X 0.68 X 0.38]
+ [(1-0.9) X 0.75 X (1-0.68) X 0.68 X 0.38]
+ .....
At lease three success = P[5] +P[4] + P[3]
On 7/5/06, Rovicky Dwi Putrohari <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
kalau misalnya POS-nya 0.5 atau 50-50
maka outcomenya :
0 success 5 failed
1 success 4 failed
2 success 3 failed
3 success 2 failed
4 success 1 failed
5 success 0 failed
ada 6 outcome jadi kalau at least three ... maka ada 3 dari 6
kemungkinan atau POSnya 0.5
nah sekarang masing2 memilki POS yg beda2 trus piye ?
RDP
On 7/5/06, Rovicky Dwi Putrohari <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Aku punya 5 prospek layer (tentunya outcome masing2 hanya dua jenis
> "success" atau "failed") dimana masing2 dr 5 layer ini memiliki POS
> (probability of success berbeda-beda) :
>
> A. POS = 0.9
> B. POS = 0.75
> C. POS = 0.68
> D. POS = 0.68
> E. POS = 0.38
>
> Nah berapa change atau POS yg aku peroleh seandainya paling tidak ada
> 3 yang sukses kalau aku drilled satu kali mengenai kelima layer tsb ?
>
> Help donk !
> ini kudune gampang ning aku kok mbundet dewe ... :(
>
> Thx
>
> RDP
>
> --
> http://rovicky.wordpress.com/
>
--
http://rovicky.wordpress.com/
--
http://rovicky.wordpress.com/
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