If global cooling will come soon -- scientists will lose trust ." -
Award-winning Japanese Geologist Dr. Shigenori Maruyama, a professor at the
Tokyo Institute of Technology's Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences,
March 2009.
Dear all,
Kebetulan cari artikel pemanasan global untuk tugas sains anakku, disatu pihak
saya harus menjelaskan ke anakku penyebab pemanasan global akibat ulah manusia,
yang sementara saya sendiri tdk mempercayai-nya…………. Jadi rasanya terlalu naif
hanya karena satu sebab……..
Kira-kira13 tahun yang lalu (1996-1997), saya ikut kuliah tentang “Earth and
life history from 3.9Ga to present day” dari guru saya, Prof. Maruyama, beliau
sangat keberatan dengan teori pemanasan global atau perubahan iklim akibat efek
rumah kaca yg diakibatkan ulah manusia.
Di kuliah tsb menjelaskan sejarah bumi kita yang mengalami ratusan atau ribuan
kali perubahan iklim (pemanasan global atau pendinginan global) yang
diakibatkan faktor eksternal dan internal bumi, yang intinya mendukung teori
siklus-nya Milankovich.
Dan ternyata penolakan terhadap teori pemanasan global akibat ulah manusia
makin besar diantara kalangan akademik, dan sudah dilakukan voting juga nih
he..he..he…kayak LuSi..ups.
Yang tidak berubah dari bumi adalah bumi kita selalu berubah…………
Regards, Ade Kadarusman, dari tepian Danau Matano............
==============================
THREE senior Japanese scientists separately engaged in climate-change research
have strongly questioned the validity of the man-made global-warming model that
underpins the drive by the UN and most developed-nation governments to curb
greenhouse gas emissions.
"I believe the anthropogenic (man-made) effect for climate change is still only
one of the hypotheses to explain the variability of climate," Kanya Kusano told
The Weekend Australian.
It could take 10 to 20 years more research to prove or disprove the theory of
anthropogenic climate change, said Dr Kusano, a research group leader with the
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science's Earth Simulator project.
"Before anyone noticed, this hypothesis has been substituted for truth," writes
Shunichi Akasofu, founding director of the University of Alaska's International
Arctic Research Centre.
Dr Kusano, Dr Akasofu and Tokyo Institute of Technology geology professor
Shigenori Maruyama are highly critical of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change's acceptance that hazardous global warming results mainly from
man-made gas emissions.
On the scientific evidence so far, according to Dr Kusano, the IPCC assertion
that atmospheric temperatures are likely to increase continuously and steadily
"should be perceived as an unprovable hypothesis".
Dr Maruyama said yesterday there was widespread scepticism among his colleagues
about the IPCC's fourth and latest assessment report that most of the observed
global temperature increase since the mid-20th century "is very likely due to
the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations".
When this question was raised at a Japan Geoscience Union symposium last year,
he said, "the result showed 90 per cent of the participants do not believe the
IPCC report".
Dr Maruyama studies the geological evidence of prehistoric climate change, and
he thinks the large influences on global climate over time may be global cosmic
rays and solar activity.
Like Dr Akasofu, Dr Maruyama believes the earth has moved into a cooling
period, and while Japan is spending hundreds of millions of dollars on carbon
credits to hedge against global warming, the country's greatest looming problem
is energy shortage, particularly oil.
"Our nation must pay huge amounts of money to buy carbon discharge rights," he
said. "This is not reasonable, but meaningless if global cooling will come soon
-- scientists will lose trust."
Dr Maruyama said he was uncomfortable, given the scientific uncertainty of
man-made climate-change theory, that Japan had taken a leading position in the
crusade for global greenhouse emission targets.
The scientists and two others -- Seita Emori, of the National Institute of
Environmental Studies, and Kiminori Ito, of Yokahama National University --
contributed to a paper titled "The scientific truth of global warming" that was
published in January by the Japan Society of Energy and Resources.
Professor Emori is a firm supporter of man-made climate-change theory and Dr
Ito is generally for it, although with reservations about the scientific rigour
of the IPCC approach.
The doubters, particularly Dr Kusano and Dr Akasofu, are being widely cited by
greenhouse-sceptic websites, after their sections of the paper were translated
by The Register, a London-based online publisher.
However, the paper's co-ordinator said the JSER's position on anthropogenic
global warming was neutral.
"This paper represents the views of the individuals and not of the society,"
said Hideo Yoshida, of Kyoto University. "The purpose is to stimulate debate
among scholars and readers, and let them form their own judgment."
The Japan Society of Energy and Resources is an academic group that promotes
co-operation between industry, academic research and government.
Dr Maruyama said many scientists were doubtful about man-made climate-change
theory, but did not want to risk their funding from the government or bad
publicity from the mass media, which he said was leading society in the wrong
direction.
-----------------------------
More than 700 scientists discredit man-made global warming fears
“59” might be the magic number for Americans to start thinking twice about
global warming fears. 59 scientists around the world have officially added
their names to the much-publicized U.S. Senate Minority Report that denounces
claims about man-made global warming. This pushes the tally of skeptical
scientists to well over 700.
According to a new report, the 700-plus scientists are “now more than 13 times
the number of U.N. scientists who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary
for Policymakers.” Many of the scientists are “affiliated with prestigious
institutions” including NASA, the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Defense Department,
Princeton University, as well as countless others.
Skeptical scientific voices are enjoying more and more company in past weeks,
especially in light of a recent article published in The
Australian that says Japanese scientists are largely rejecting man-made global
warming claims. Japanese Geologist Dr. Shigenori Maruyama, professor at the
Tokyo Institute of Technology’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences,
said this month that “there was widespread skepticism among his colleagues
about the IPCC's fourth and latest assessment report that most of the observed
global temperature increase since the mid-20th century 'is very likely due to
the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.'"
According to a report published by the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and
Public Works, Maruyama noted that when this question was raised at a Japan
Geoscience Union symposium last year, "the result showed 90 percent of the
participants do not believe the IPCC report.” The same report notes:
Botanist Dr. David Bellamy, a famed UK environmental campaigner, former
lecturer at Durham University, and host of a popular UK TV series on wildlife,
says the international promotion of man-made global warming fears are nearing
their end. “The science has, quite simply, gone awry. In fact, it’s not even
science any more, it’s anti-science,” says Bellamy, who used to believe in
man-made warming.
Perhaps Princeton physicist Dr. Robert H. Austen, a member of the U.S. National
Academy of Sciences, said it best earlier this month: “Unfortunately, Climate
Science has become Political Science … It is tragic that some perhaps
well-meaning but politically-motivated scientists who should know better have
whipped up a global frenzy about a phenomena which is statistically
questionable at best.”
Increasingly, the number of scientists skeptical of global warming seem to
be responding to both doomsday predictions of climate change as well as
peer-reviewed analyses that downplay claims that man-made global warming is a
reality. Just a few weeks ago, Dr. Anastasios Tsonis of the University of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee remarked in Geophysical Research Letters that while Earth
undergoes natural climate changes: “I don’t think we can say much about what
the humans are doing.” In almost every way, his appropriately ambiguous
thoughts seem to best underscore the current war between skeptics and
alarmists.
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