IBM Mainframe Discussion List <IBM-MAIN@bama.ua.edu> wrote on 05/23/2012 05:39:26 PM:
> From: "Roberts, John J" <jrobe...@dhs.state.ia.us> > >When the last Cobol programmers walk out the door, so may 50 years > of business processes within the software they created. Will you be > ready? > > Ed, Interesting article and fairly accurate IMO. > > This is what I can foresee happening: > (1) Many companies will try to offshore their COBOL application > support. But this won't work so well because it is hard enough to > understand these systems without facing the complications of > language and arcane terminology. And the young ones back in > Bangalore will want to do Java, not COBOL. Actually the language is not a problem. We have people here from multiple nations, some whose English is lacking. But they can doing the programming work - well. The problem is the lack of application knowledge. We just had a senior person retire to a ranch in FL. He was senior person in his critical application. He ran a series of weekly one hour technical seminars. The problem was that he could answer any question off the top of his head. But an organized overview and drill down into each part of the system and the relationship of that system to multiple other systems was not there. He was used to being a S(ubject)M(atter)E(xpert)/guru. Ask him a question and he could answer it or tell you where to find the answer. Without that kind of person, trying to port the application to anything else is risky as is training newbies. > (2) Other companies will want to recruit overseas, either for CS > grads that they can train, or for those few that are willing to > invest in COBOL learning if that is what it takes to punch that H1B > ticket. But even so, once here they are all going to be looking to > do something else, not COBOL. So that company that recruits and > trains a COBOL resource is going to be looking for a replacement > within a couple years. We have had over the years training programs to build new Cobol programmers. They work fine. But again, the application knowledge is not in books. It was transmitted by SMEs. > (3) Efforts to train new young COBOL resources are going to flop, as > the article mentions. Again, everyone expects COBOL to be a career > dead-end once beyond a 5 to 10 year transition period. Since Cobol is now talking to distributed applications in various ways, Cobol people are getting exposure to distributed applications. I recently had a project transferred from me which was going to have me build part of an environment that is both mainframe and distributed. As long as the documentation is there, there is not a huge chasm to cross. > (4) In the end, US companies are going to be forced to pay a premium > just to hang on to their old-timers long enough to buy time to > implement that new ERP package or new custom application. The ones > that will be successful doing this are going to be the ones that > accommodate their senior developer's desires: lots of time off, > telecommuting, job sharing, benefits, etc. Right now at the moment there are enough Cobol programmers leaving other companies that is still a supply of new people, some of which have fine skill sets. But as time goes on, there will be a cliff. I just returned from Germany. There was talk there that there is an "engineering" shortage in the market there. Never bothered with the details. Maybe the recession there will give them time to kick the can down the road more. After all, it has been working so well for dealing with their financial problems. > John ----------------------------------------- The information contained in this communication (including any attachments hereto) is confidential and is intended solely for the personal and confidential use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this communication in error and that any review, dissemination, copying, or unauthorized use of this information, or the taking of any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message. Thank you ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For IBM-MAIN subscribe / signoff / archive access instructions, send email to lists...@bama.ua.edu with the message: INFO IBM-MAIN
