> "If IBM was smart ..."

IBM is smart.

Including its direct antecedents, IBM has been in business since 1888 and still 
develops and
markets leading edge technology.  It would be fun to see if Microsoft (founded 
87 years after
IBM) is still around in 2092.

zSeries just closed its best MIPS quarter and second best revenue quarter ever.

I've had the pleasure of talking with (and occasionally arguing with) every 
current senior IBM
executive except Sam Palmisano.  I can promise you - they are not dumb.  I may 
disagree with
some of their strategies (Java, Linux and software charging in various details) 
but they have
well thought out positions and they are very difficult to better in debate.  
Bill Zeitler, for
my money, beats Linda Sanford by a hair - and both have in the past had sole 
responsibility
for zSeries - it's where IBM puts its best executives.

(Latest is Jim Stallings, BTW.  Not announced yet.)

If you ascribe any IBM action or inaction to dumbness, then you have not made 
an adequate
attempt to understand its position.

I fear it is now much too late for Hercules.  Back when it started I tried to 
persuade Jay and
others that their strategy would not work as they were pursuing it.  They 
seemed to have
convinced themselves that IBM could somehow be forced to co-operate and that 
this was an
inevitable consequence of the "open source" nature of the project.

You would have to convince a chain of people, some of whom would swap jobs 
during the process,
that what you wanted to do would both benefit each of their individual 
objectives and also
present zero risk to a revenue stream that basically carries the company.

It might look to you like a simple little agreement that releases z/OS to run 
in your bedroom
for private purposes, but to IBM it's another form of license agreement that 
has to go right
through legal processes and then to the executive committee.  That costs money 
and lawyer
time - probably millions of dollars - and then the final decision weighs the 
billions of
dollars IBM earns against the risk of a new form of licensing.

How many more decisions would go in favour of IBM middleware over a five-year 
period and what
extra revenue would come in?  On what do you base those numbers?

I can promise you that the Partnerworld team have to continually rejustify the 
AD/CD - there
are many who regard software development as "production" for a software house.

-- 
  Phil Payne
  http://www.isham-research.co.uk
  +44 7833 654 800

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